Before making those all important SuperBru picks for the Super Rugby qualifying matches, let’s have a look at some predictions, thoughts and statistics from the sides taking the field this Saturday.

Blue Bird aka Carol is still leading the Rugby-Talk Super Rugby 2014 SuperBru log on a stellar 106.50 points.

Sharks_Lover has gained ground on her after his yellow cap winning Round 19 and is sitting in second spot on 106.20. Winston Champ dropped one place to 3rd on 104.50 points.

The Brumbies vs Chiefs is a repeat of the 2013 Super Rugby final, a game the Chiefs won 27-22, but in the earlier encounter this year, the Brumbies beat the Chiefs 41-23.

The Highlanders have beaten the Sharks in their last 2 encounters: 25-22 at home in 2013, and 34-18 in Durban earlier this season. Only the Bulls (28) have scored fewer tries than the Sharks (29) in 2014.

The predictions from Planet Rugby also favors the home sides.

Form:

Inconsistency has plagued the Brumbies since winning seven matches in eight games, with last year’s finalists unable to secure back to back wins and losing four of their last seven games. At home this year they have an 88 win percentage record. The Chiefs on the other hand won their last two matches but lost the three fixtures before those successes. A run of one win in six games earlier this season – which included two draws – has been their downfall.

Previous Results:

• 2014: Brumbies won 41-23 in Canberra
• 2013: Chiefs won 27-22 in Hamilton
• 2012: Chiefs won 29-22 in Hamilton
• 2011: Brumbies won 28-20 in Canberra
• 2010: Brumbies won 30-23 in Canberra

Prediction:

Home advantage has clearly held sway in the last five encounters between these two, so why think differently? Christian Lealiifano’s kicking has to be perfect and if his radar is off early on, Nic White must take over. Cruden after all will not waste similar chances. Both sides are capable of scoring tries and have big-name players made for the occasion, but both are also flawed.

It’s Fardy vs Messam, Toomua vs Cruden, Kuridrani vs Nanai-Williams. This one is close to call.

Brumbies by five.

The Sharks will be carrying the hopes of a nation as they look to salvage South Africa’s Super Rugby season in their play-off against the Highlanders at Kings Park on Saturday.

Form:

The Highlanders are coming off the back of consecutive defeats to the table topping Waratahs and Crusaders. They have lost four of their last five games, although they collected four bonus points in those games. The Sharks’ 34-10 victory over the Stormers last week saw them return to winning ways having lost back-to-back South Africa derbies in their previous outings. The Sharks have won six out of eight home games this season having lost to the Highlanders in April and the Stormers in May.

Previous results:

• 2014: Highlanders won 34-18 in Durban
• 2013: Highlanders won 25-22 in Dunedin
• 2012: Sharks won 28-16 in Durban
• 2010: Sharks won 30-16 in Dunedin

Prediction:

If their previous meeting was the only indicator of form, then the Highlanders would be the outstanding favourites. But. The Sharks were probably caught out for being overconfident that day and have since shown that, when the chips are down, their big boys come out on top.

Sharks by six points.

The SuperBru community picks:

• Brumbies (74%) to beat Chiefs by 4
• Cell C Sharks (95%) to beat Highlanders by 9

The odds from OddsChecker:

• Brumbies (14/7) to beat Chiefs (13/8)
• Cell C Sharks (1/6) to beat Highlanders (5/1)

It all looks just a little too simple does it not? Surely one of the games is due to produce an upset?

For the record, and if you need a nudge either way, ex All Black and Lions coach John Mitchell has the Chiefs and Sharks, ex Bok skipper Corne Krige has the same, while ex Bok centre Marius Joubert is going the more traditional route advised by the bookies.

From the Rugby Blog comes the following:

Brumbies vs Chiefs

The Brumbies destroyed fellow play-off hopefuls the Force last week, in a feast of running rugby that saw them finish with seven tries to their name. The Chiefs’ win over the Blues was far less fluent but arguably just as impressive – conditions were horrible but they ground out a win away from home, right when they needed it most.

The Brumbies beat their visitors this weekend by 18 at Canberra Stadium earlier this season, but as Aaron Cruden said earlier this week – “This is knockout footy” – and this game will likely be much closer than that. I’d still expect the Brumbies to make home advantage count and make it to the semi-finals, however.

SuperBru pick: Brumbies by 5

Cell C Sharks vs Highlanders

Psychology is a big part of rugby, and the mental battle in this game will be intriguing. The Sharks may well be at home, which is an obvious advantage, but there are two sides to have beaten them in Durban this year – the Stormers and, back in April, the Highlanders, when they produced probably the shock of the year to pump their hosts by 16 points.

All this means the Highlanders will hold no fear arriving in Durban, while the Sharks will approach this with just slightly less confidence than they would if it had been a team they’d beaten already this year.

SuperBru pick: Sharks by 6

www.bowlphilosophy.com also reckon the home sides will prevail

Ahh knock out rugby, a time where Super Rugby sides play with a Test Rugby influence, with tight defense and mistake minimization at a premium. Mistake minimization? Is that a phrase? I am gonna leave it in, sounds professional.

Super Rugby play-offs, 19th of July 2014

Brumbies vs Chiefs

Both the Brumbies and Chiefs are have come into some recent form after losing a few games on the trot and both will fancy their chances after their most recent performances. Last year the Chiefs beat the Brumbies in a tighter than expected Final but the Brumbies got their revenge by hammering the Chiefs by 18 points in Canberra in April. Like most knock out games, the performance of the flyhalves becomes that much more important and both Matt Toomua and Aaron Cruden are world class, but Toomua perhaps has the edge after a sublime effort last week where he scored a hat trick.

For the Brumbies look out for Henry Speight, Tevita Kuridrani and Nick White. In fact the entire backline have been good this season and coach Stephen Larkham has definitely added an attacking dimension to his side since taking over from Jake defense, kick, defense, kick, defense White. For the Chiefs it is the forwards who will make the difference with All Blacks Liam Messam, Brodie Retallick and massive prop Ben Tameifuna all stepping up massively last week, especially on defense.

This will be a close situash but I reckon the Brumbies will secure the win at home and head on over to Sydney to face the Waratahs next weekend.

Brumbies vs Chiefs Prediction: Brumbies by less than 7

Cell C Sharks vs Highlanders

Man o Man, even though he won’t publicly admit it, you can bet Jake White is ruing the home loss to the Stormers just before the June break. A win there and Jake’s side would be taking a breather this weekend and looking forward to a home Semi. Instead they need to play one of the teams that beat them at home this year before jetting off to Christchurch to try to beat the Saders twice in one season just to get to the final.

Good news for the Sharks is the return of Pat I use Clear for Men Lambie, who will be a welcome option off the bench. Frans I don’t want to play for the Bokke Steyn will continue at flyhalf and Cobus Reinach has recovered from his injury to start at scrumhalf. Look out for centre JP Pietersen coming up against the ever impressive Malakai Fekitoa who single-handedly destroyed the Sharks the last time these sides met.

The Highlanders will be incredibly happy to have Co-captain Ben Smith back in the side after he missed the last game with a leg infection. He will be hoping his side can repeat what they did in April where his forwards dominated the Sharks pack and the backs counter attacked at will, receiving kick after aimless kick in open field. Unfortunately for them, Bismark du Plessis is playing in this game and Willem Alberts and Marcel Coetzee should ensure that the Sharks have the upper hand at ruck time.

It is hard to see the Sharks losing this at home, especially having played ‘knock-out’ rugby the whole season and being acutely aware of what went wrong the last time they played the Landers and I reckon they will win comfortably.

Sharks vs Highlanders Prediction: Sharks by 7-14

Lastly we take a look at the thoughts of Tank Lanning on his Frontrow Grunt site

Both the Bookies and the Brus say it is going to be plain sailing for the home sides this weekend. Tank Lanning is less convinced. Catch the weekend’s teams, times, refs, odds, and community picks.

Remember when we used to give the Stormers grief for playing a game that would only get them as far as the quarterfinals, but no further? This because the stats prove that defence alone will not be good enough come the business end of the tournament. Well against Ben Smith and Malakai Fekitoa, one has to wonder if the Sharks largely defensive outlook on life is going to be good enough in Durban on Saturday night?

Also, the Highlanders have beaten the Sharks in their last 2 encounters: 25-22 at home in 2013, and 34-18 in Durban earlier this season. Only the Bulls (28) have scored fewer tries than the Sharks (29) in 2014.

However, the Banana Boys have conceded the fewest tries (22) in Super Rugby this year. This while the Highlanders’ opponents tackled at a competition low success rate of 82% this season. This mainly due to Malakai Fekitoa having beaten 61 defenders, at least 10 more than anybody else! Both scrums operate at about an 85% success rate, but with Stephan Lewies having produced more lineout catches (77) and steals (10) than any other player in the regular season, the Sharks lineout success (at 87%) is a whole lot better than the Highlanders (79%). Are we seeing a classic case of best defence vs best attack? Worrying signs for the Sharks, but with Lambie back (albeit on the bench), and a momentum building win at Newlands, I think they should be OK at home this weekend.

Brumbies vs Chiefs is a repeat of the 2013 Super Rugby final, a game the Chiefs won 27-22, but in the earlier encounter this year, the Brumbies beat the Chiefs 41-23. Both of these sides conceded exactly 378 points this season, an average of 23.6 per game.

The Brumbies are making their second consecutive appearance in the finals after making the final last year. Prior to last season they had not appeared in the business end of the season since 2004. The Chiefs are aiming for a third title in a row, only the Crusaders (1998-2000) have ever won three titles on the bounce.

The Chiefs have been really crappy for most of this year, while the Brumbies are almost unbeatable at home these days. So of course I have picked this game to produce the upset!

To the weekend then:

Tank’s prediction: Chiefs to beat Brumbies by 9
Tank’s prediction: Cell C Sharks to beat Highlanders by 11