This is the last article in the 3-part series where we run the rule over team performances so far and take a look at the chances of teams as we enter the final stretch of the regular season.
We conclude with the South African Conference, who are positioned as the bottom performing country overall, with 4 teams in the bottom 6 at present.
SUMMARY: While the Sharks fly the SA flag and have established the 1st major break at the top of the table, now 5 points clear, only the Bulls have any chance of joining Jake White’s team in the knockout stage of the season.
The Lions’ promising start has been tarnished, the Cheetahs record season last year is a distant memory, while the Stormers haven’t been so far down the table since 1996.
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Vodacom Bulls
24 competition points, 10th overall, 2nd in South Africa
STORY SO FAR: 4 Wins from 11 matches should have edged the Bulls out of final’s reckoning, but 5 losing bonus points have kept them within the shadows of the top 6, even if they are poor travellers. 6 Losses on the road have been critical, and as 1 of just 2 teams (along with the Cheetahs) to have played 11 games, time is running out.
CRYSTAL BALL: The Bulls are striving for what would be their 3rd consecutive Super Rugby Finals Series appearance, matching the record set as they marched towards their 1st title between 2005 and 2007. They have an ideal close to their campaign, with 3 home games and local trips to Johannesburg and Cape Town, which could see them squeak home but they would need to claim a least 4 of their 5.
SQUAD WATCH: The Bulls 2nd major exodus in several years has been felt this time around, even if 1 of the least experienced squads in recent memory from Pretoria still has its moments. Victor Matfield’s significant return has proved to be a big factor in their competitiveness despite fewer Springboks than any other side bar the Lions.
TITLE CHANCE OR DAMAGE TEAM: The Bulls will need to finish with a major head of steam, but with all of their international travels completed they are still within top 6 calculations, even though they will have to rely on other results.
Toyota Cheetahs
15 competition points, 15th overall, 5th in South Africa
STORY SO FAR: 1 Win and a 1-point loss after their opening fortnight saw the Cheetahs then become the 1st South African team to tour, and 4 losses in Australasia, despite scoring 90 points in their final 3 overseas games, was a blow they never recovered from. Back in South Africa they shared 86 points against the defending champions, the Chiefs. They have been competitive in recent derby matches, but just 2 wins are unyielding.
CRYSTAL BALL: 3rd Overall in terms of points scored and equal 3rd with tries registered, the Cheetahs attack continues to function but the goal of tightening up the defences hasn’t eventuated and will be the primary work to concentrate on in the remaining 5 games. 3 Remaining fixtures are in Bloemfontein, where the side has only lost twice in 2014, will be a chance to repay the faithful.
SQUAD WATCH: There is plenty of talent in the team – Willie Le Roux is among the competition’s best attackers and up front Andries Strauss and Heinrich Brussow have been their usually industrious selves, but the perfect balance is still to be found. Sparkling on attack and possessing a clear never say die attitude even in the face of big opposition scores, but once again the inability to fall back on their defensive systems is costing them.
TITLE CHANCE OR DAMAGE TEAM: While the Cheetahs are below the line when it comes to Super Rugby Finals Series qualification, they are a serious threat to other sides, considering their pedigree with ball in hand. It is unprecedented that a ‘cellar dweller’ has scored so many tries and sometimes the fact that a team knows they are out of title reckoning can give them the freedom to run amok.
Lions
16 competition points, 12th overall, 3rd in South Africa
STORY SO FAR: At one point it looked as if the Lions were going to be the darlings of the 2014 season, when they gleefully tore up the form book by winning 4 of their 1st 6 matches, but since then they have scored just 1 try in 4 games and have lost each game by at least 13 points. Their dependence on Marnitz Boshoff has shifted, but the inexperience of their squad cannot be underestimated, 17 of their 23 against the Chiefs were playing their 1st Super Rugby game in New Zealand.
CRYSTAL BALL: From hereon in the Lions could still create a result or 2, but much of that will depend how many points they can earn with 3 matches still in the Antipodes. Their final 3 games of the season, with a bye in that run, could be what allows the team to finish with a bit of pride.
SQUAD WATCH: The Lions will rely on the likes of captain Warren Whiteley, fellow back rower Derick Minnie and their 2 quite different No 10’s in Marnitz Boshoff and Elton Jantjies to guide a team that is certainly enthusiastic but is struggling as more experienced teams begin to find their Super Rugby groove. The early dependence on kicking is causing issues to find their ball in hand rhythm.
TITLE CHANCE OR DAMAGE TEAM: The Lions slip up on the road has all but ruled a line through their final’s chances, but they could sneak an upset on the road before getting the vast stands at Ellis Park to shake with another victory or 2, to close out their return to Super Rugby.
Cell C Sharks
35 competition points, 1st overall, 1st in South Africa
STORY SO FAR: The Cell C Sharks are the leading side in the competition and for good reason, some might question their softer opening to Super Rugby than most teams, but 8 wins in 10 matches has them ideally positioned for final’s qualification, while they are the best defensive team in the competition.
CRYSTAL BALL: Their almost perfect opening to the season has them on the verge of playing in the Super Rugby Finals Series, while their feats in Melbourne, the 1st South African team in 14 matches to win overseas this year, has them in pole position. However they have bar none the toughest close, 3 away matches against fellow contenders the Brumbies, Crusaders and Blues and just 1 home game in their last 6 will be an immense challenge.
SQUAD WATCH: Quite possibly the most uncompromising pack in the competition has created a near impenetrable defensive blockade in the tight. An all-Springboks front row and a giant combination of loose forwards are setting the tone for what is considered a ‘typical’ Jake White team, quite happy to absorb punishment while Frans Steyn – arguably their best player – keeps scoring in blocks of 3.
TITLE CHANCE OR DAMAGE TEAM: The Sharks are a title chance, with an ironclad defence and a storming start which could in theory see them afford to lose a few matches towards the close. For all of their stoic strengths, the 12th ranked attack by tries scored could be a small chink and the Highlanders running game exposed the men from Durban – and they will face more potent offences in the coming weeks.
DHL Stormers
15 competition points, 14th overall, 4th in South Africa
STORY SO FAR: For a team that has been the defensive benchmark for years and is a 2-time South African Conference winner, the 2014 Super Rugby season represents a failure for the Stormers, continuing a merciless trend in the tournament where nothing seems to go right for at least 1 major franchise. A side that established such a proud travelling record in 2011 and 2012 hasn’t won a single game on the road this campaign. The last team to make excuses, the cold reality is that the Stormers have had the worst injury toll by an unhealthy margin.
CRYSTAL BALL: Moving forward the Stormers have a good closing run, with their overseas quota completed and 4 matches at Newlands from their last 6. Their flamboyant win over an in form Highlanders could be the mythical stick in the sand, it was the 1st time this season they had run more than their opposition and it resulted in their 1st 4-try bonus point of 2014.
SQUAD WATCH: With their extensive casualty ward slowly emptying, the Stormers must be wishing the season was still in its infancy as this is a team beginning to hit their straps. Schalk Burger seems to be growing taller with every outing, while the clear shift away from defence to attack is bringing out the best in players like Damien de Allende and Jean de Villiers.
TITLE CHANCE OR DAMAGE TEAM: The Stormers will not challenge for the 2014 Super Rugby title, a horror combination of major injuries and perhaps the toughest opening of any team (with 1 home game in 6) has put an end to those hopes. With 5 of their 6 remaining matches being derbies, the chance to be a local giant killer is strong. Deliciously 4 of them are against the Bulls and Sharks.