Over the last couple of weeks we’ve had numerous discussions about what the Lions’ expectations should be for 2010. Expecting a semi-final or final in the Super 14 is great, and you can’t be blamed for a lack of optimism, but is it realistic?

We need to realise that the Super 14 has some seriously talented players split between 14 sides.

It’s about having the talent, experience, continuity, a fair share of luck and having a mental edge over the other sides that separates the pretenders from the champions. Being the best on paper does not guarantee you a semi.

Looking at the NZ sides, they have serious contenders and sides that have been playing together for a couple seasons now, and will definitely challenge for the top four. Same with some of the Australian sides.

Realistically, we must admit the Bulls and Stormers seem to be the pre-season favourites to carry the SA flag, but that’s just it. It’s pre-season. I have no doubt whatsoever that the Bulls will be there at the end. However, the Stormers have this habit of lifting the Super 14 trophy before the first kick-off. And by April, all the pre-season hype has disappeared and the excuses come rolling in.

But I just have this feeling that they might actually do something this season. They have a descent draw, and the experience of Fourie and Habana will definitely benefit the side. But the loss of Watson and Jean de Villiers, is an equaliser. Watson was their player of the season last year, and was brilliant for them – irrelevant if you like the guy or not. He played good rugby.

The Sharks seem to be in trouble, no matter how you look at it. If they continue with Smit at tight-head, they’ll struggle to make the top half with their backline available. The Cheetahs might just surprise a couple of sides, but with the same management staff, I can’t see a vast improvement from them.  

Coming back to the Lions, we need to be realistic about the upcoming Super 14. It’s a tough competition, we only have 6 games at Coke park, and a bad draw overseas. We cross the Tasmin twice in 5 weeks.

Most teams are settled and ready to go. Muir hasn’t had enough time to settle on his first choice side as he has only been with us from early December.

What I would like to see is a gradual improvement, week by week. Competitive rugby, and when we lose, lose by less than 7. To compete for a semi-final spot, a team needs about 40 log points. And with our draw, to me, it seems a bit tough.

Realistically, I want a finish around 8^th, and we need to end third of the SA sides. But the most important is improved rugby, quality skills, and exciting rugby that we can build on heading into the Currie Cup. Muir is spot on in saying we need to improve game by game.

We can’t expect miracles, and we can’t expect the side to turn the last 4 seasons around in less than 4 months. But we are entitled to expect a better side in the Super 14. A Side that can build on performances week by week, and then target a semi in 2011 and as Muir indicated, go for the title in 2012. It’s not a three year plan, it’s a game by game plan. Play on the Saturday, and start all over on the following Monday.

This is exactly how the Bulls got to be where they are today, and that is a blueprint that we would be foolish not to follow.