When class meets with proper preparation…

The concept of the X-factor actually comes from racehorses, specifically from a horse called Eclipse. An extremely large heart is a trait that occasionally occurs in Thoroughbreds, linked to a genetic condition passed down via the dam line, known as the “x-factor”.

Eclipse, the horse, was necropsied after his death in 1789. Because Eclipse’s heart appeared to be much larger than other horses, it was weighed, and found to be 14 pounds (6.4 kg), almost twice the normal weight. Eclipse is believed to have passed the trait on via his daughters, and pedigree research verified that arguably the best racehorse ever, namely Secretariat can trace in his dam line to a daughter of Eclipse.

In the 20th century, the heart of Phar Lap was weighed and also documented to be 6.35 kilograms (14.0 lb), or essentially the same size as that of Eclipse.

Now you might ask what this has got to do with the All Blacks and the Rugby World Cup final.

I recently saw a movie about the above mentioned famous racehorse Secretariat who became only the ninth horse in history to win the Triple Crown.

In the United States, the three races that compose the Triple Crown are:

1. Kentucky Derby, run over 1-1/4 miles (2.01 km) dirt track at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky;
2. Preakness Stakes, run over 1-3/16 miles (1.91 km) dirt track at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland;
3. Belmont Stakes, run over 1-1/2 miles (2.41 km), the longest dirt track in thoroughbred racing, at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York.

No horse has won the U.S. Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978.

A summary of Triple Crown winners since 1919 can be seen in the table below:

Secretariat at the Blemont Stakes in 1973. Notice the distance between him and the other horses. 

What makes the Triple Crown such a hard assignment is the fact that the three races are run over three different distances with the Belmont Stakes considerably longer than the other two races.

The story of Secretariat is a fascinating tale of struggling against the odds by a woman with the name of Penny Chenery (Penny Tweedy) who inherited the horse before its birth from her father.

Secretariat’s sire was a sprinter and although Secretariat was named horse of the year as a two year old there was serious doubt whether he will succeed as a three year old because the races of the 3 year olds are ran over longer distances.

The fact that he lost one of his early races as a three year old when he had (unknown to the trainer) a tooth abbess didn’t help to the get the tag all-speed-no-stay of his back.

So even after Secretariat went on and won the first two races of the Triple Crown (over 2 and 1.9 km respectively) in 1973 there was still serious doubt as to whether he had enough speed endurance to last the distance in the Belmont Stakes ran over 2.4 km.

Only four horses competed against Secretariat for the June 9, 1973, running of the Belmont Stakes, including Sham, which had finished second in both the Derby and Preakness which is of course the two other races of the Triple Crown.

Secretariat was renowned as a slow starter who only moved to the front late in the race so the tactic by Shams owners going into the race was to try and pull Secretariat to the front and tire him out.

One race day before a crowd of 67,605, Secretariat and Sham set a fast early pace, opening ten lengths on the rest of the field. Everyone was thinking what the hell is the Jockey doing but Secretariat was such a dominating personality that the instruction to his Jockeys was always along the lines of ‘let him run his own race’. After the six-furlong (1.2 km) mark, Sham began to tire, ultimately finishing last. Secretariat astonished spectators by continuing the fast pace and opening up a larger and larger margin on the field. (See video clip below).

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In the stretch, Secretariat opened a 1/16 mile lead on the rest of the field. At the finish, he won by 31 lengths (breaking the margin-of-victory record set by Triple Crown winner Count Fleet in 1943, which won by 25 lengths), and ran the fastest 1½ miles on dirt in history, 2:24 flat, which broke the stakes’ record by more than two seconds. This works out to a speed of 37.5 mph for his entire performance. Secretariat’s world record still stands, and in fact, no other horse has ever broken 2:25 for 1½ miles on dirt.

Secretariat became the ninth Triple Crown winner in history, and the first in 25 years since 1948.

Watching the movie the sheer class of Secretariat brought tears to my eyes. I watched that movie three times and cried each time due to the class and astounding brilliance of that magnificent animal.

After his death in 1989 a necropsy revealed his heart was significantly larger than that of an ordinary horse.

Now the interesting thing about Secretariat was that he was not totally invincible and in a career of 21 races he won 16 (76.1%). The devastating form revealed on June 9, 1973 at the Belmont Stakes had much to do with his trainer Lucien Laurin getting it right on that particular day. Laurin sensed after the Preakness Stakes that the horse had more to give and contrary to common practice which was to taper the horse in the weeks prior to the Belmont Laurin pushed the horse harder.

So it was very much a case where class (genetic potential/x-factor) fused with the right preparation to produce something spectacular.

The All Blacks are probably the team with the most x-factor players in the entire rugby world. Combine that with 24 years of simmering frustration and 3 coaches with a burning desire and relentless commitment over 4 years to rectify a mistake you have the same mix as on June 9, 1973 during the Belmont Stakes; x-factor coalescing with proper preparation.

So my gut feeling is that NZ is going to pull a Secretariat on France this weekend and I predict the pure class; the desire and preparedness of this All Black team are going to produce something out of this world on Sunday night.

We all love to see the underdog defy the odds.

There is nothing as exhilarating as to see the human spirit triumph against all odds and that is probably one of the reasons why the French team is always everyone’s favourite second team. They -more than any other nation on earth- have the uncanny ability to defy the odd; to produce upsets that leaves behind a sense of everything are possible.

The other side of the coin which also leave us with and an enduring sense of reverence is when class merge with preparedness and produce something that stuns the world into awed silence. It will be one of those moments, I believe, where in the midst of it we will realize we are witnessing something incomparable to anything we’ve seen before.