In an article in today’s Dominion Post former All Black coach and current Lions coach reasons the All Blacks will need a change of direction if they want to win the WC later this year.
A shift in rule interpretations from last year to this year by referees is playing into South Africa’s hands in the run-up to the Rugby World Cup in Mitchell’s opinion.
The All Blacks will have to shelve the expansive counter-attacking style used to dominate world rugby last year as it becomes more and more difficult to maintain possession at the tackle.
“Last year’s breakdown was a lot different to this year,” he said last when asked to assess the cup hopes of New Zealand, Australia and South Africa. “The tackler assist is getting away with murder in this comp [Super Rugby], so I think you will see a World Cup of territory and kicking goals.
“The breakdown will be a huge influence, how you look after and hold on to your own ball and how you can get away with slowing down the opposition’s.
“That will certainly help the Boks. Their kicking game last year was poor when they didn’t get the balance right between run, pass and kick and they gave the All Blacks and Australia too much possession.
“But you have to respect the fact that they play great pressure football.”
Mitchell’s assessment is probably fair considering that the Stormers, Bulls and Sharks could all make the Super Rugby playoffs with the former two playing a conservative brand of rugby.
Mitchell also said selection and discipline would be crucial as referees cracked down on infringements and that coaches would need to pick players to match the style.
“The All Blacks will have to change their game and play a little more football in the front fifty,” he said. “Their set piece will need to be accurate, but I think they have the best scrum out of the three and that will allow them to get one-on-ones with the backs.”
A more competitive battle at the tackle could also hinder Australia and potentially take away their greatest strength, halves Will Genia and Quade Cooper, Mitchell said.
This certainly is an interesting perspective and suggests that coaches and players have adjusted to the way the All Blacks played last year. So the question is have the new rule interpretation really accomplished anything?
The idea behind the new rule interpretation was certainly to diminish kicking and create more running. It seems to me however that we are back at the trench warfare and the kicking game.
Less high kicks maybe but tactical kicking with the aim of playing in the oppositions half is certainly on. The Sharks scored two of their tries from counter attacks on the weekend and the Cheetahs certainly have won a number of games with that exact approach this year.
I haven’t really analysed the S15 games but from memory it seems to me that we’ve seen less tries from set piece and phase play and more tries from counter attacks after poor tactical kicks. The game for me is turning into league with a smash it up against the defensive line approach being the primary objective with angled runners every now and again as a variation.
If one listens to Mitchell is seems that the game is yet again favouring the conservative approach with tactical kicking but that the tactical kicking has to be spot on and the follow-up work aggressive to avoid counter attacks from deep. Am I missing something or are we back at what worked in 2009?
These remarks by John Mitchell suggest that this year WC will be no different than previous WC’s once the tournament reach semi-finals stage, namely conservative rugby with lots of tactical kicking and that defense and structure at set piece will be key to winning the tournament.
Wheteher the All Blacks are going to convert and accept that as the way to play during the world cup is certainly the question. Or are they going to persist to try and prove the rest of the rugby world wrong and attempt once again to win the WC with flair and running rugby?
“this year WC will be no different than previous WC’s once the tournament reach semi-finals stage, namely conservative rugby with lots of tactical kicking and that defense and structure at set piece will be key to winning the tournament.”
Aren’t all major ball sports knockout phases the same. FIFA World Cup, Cricket World Cup and Rugby World Cup. Win at all costs. No points, no bonus points, no net run rate, just a win.
Human nature to be conservative in such a situation?
Oh, and I certainly hope Union doesn’t get any closer to League(Spit spit). I’ll have to slash my wrists with a rusty butter knife in the foyer of the IRB offices.
Maybe Mitchell is starting to make the right noises so that he can throw his hat into the ring for the soon to be vacant Bok Head Coach job.
Come join my Currie Cup prediction game on SuperBru! It’s free and loads of fun. Just click here:
http://www.superbru.com/curriecup/pool.asp?p=173633
Pool name: Vul CC 2011
Pool code: asiatrip
Of course it may just be that he’s really good mates with the craggy faced old school master that is currently the All Black coach and he (Mitchell) thinks that Henry needs a “heads up” in order to avoid another episode where the AB’s get accused of battling to catch their breath.
Or should that be “another chocking episode.”?
Scrumdown@1 wrote:
Agree but somehow the AB seems to reject that and keep on trying to play the expansive game or is it a case of choking evn when trying to play conservative.
Scrumdown@2 wrote:
Ha ha ha ha, I’ll have to agree with that one.
@ Scrumdown@3:Springbok coach. I wouldn’t mind. He’ll do a great job I reckon but I don’t think he has any ambition in that direction.
@ Scrumdown@5:Hahaha mate your on a bit of a roll here. Must be something you ate at breakfast. Keep going. Craggy faced old schoolmaster you say, hahaha.
@ McLook:
I guess Graham Henry and the AB’s are really between a rock and a hard place.
If they play “10 man” Rugby and win the WC the Nation will rejoice, but they will be lambasted.
If they play an expansive, “attractive” game, and lose in the knockout stages there will be untold depression.
Surely, they have to take each game on it’s merits and adapt on the day to whatever it takes to win that particular game. I’m just not sure it’s in the AB mentality to do that though.
One thing is sure, every one of the other top country’s coaches are plotting ways to defeat the AB’s.
I reckon England have as good a chance as NZ to lift the trophy. Playing conditions will suit them and they will be well prepared.
Unfortunately I don’t think the Boks have a “heavy field” game plan capable of winning the tournament.
I may be wrong, but results in NZ over the last 10 years don’t favour them.
I guess it all comes down to those last 3 games, as Jake White was so fond of saying.
The main difference between Rugby Union and Rugby League is the tackle area.
In Rugby League when a tackle occurs, it has a unique restart where turn overs are not an option, and the tackled players gts an epileptic fit to notify the tackler he is ready to plae the ball and for the game to continue.
If the attacking team has no success after four plays, the fifth play will ultimately end in a kick to gain as much territory as possible before the opponent runs back at you.
In Rugby Union we have a breakdown at the tackled area, and thus we fight for possession and often concede a penalty if the referee decides it was done illegally.
No matter what the breakdown laws will be at any given time, teams will find a way to circumvent the law and find ways to create turn over ball.
New Zealand benfited last year as they found a way that worked for them, now 18 months later there are counter measures other teams use. To say it will advantage only SA is nonsense.
McLook wrote:
Dry Pap with no milk or sugar will do that to you!
@ biltongbek:
But in league the scrums are all basically uncontested, with the SH putting the ball in under the 2nd row’s feet.
It’s also against the rules to “strip” the ball in the tackle, and of course there are no line outs.
It’s also the National Sport of Papua New Guinea who get to compete in just about every RLWC, and if memory serves me correctly made the play-off’s last time around.
It’s a pox of a sport that originated in the smog riddled north of England, and I thank my Sports Masters at school in England who used to beat the sh1t out of us if we spoke about it, and would have buried us alive if they’d have caught us playing the game.
It’s a game for simpletons who cannot understand the complex rules and tactics associated with Rugby Union.
No locks, no real props, and packs of “forwards” that could all be Currie Cup B division reserve team fetchers. As in “go fetch the oranges, go fetch the tackle bags, or go fetch the beers for the real Rugby players.”
You may all have noticed I am somewhat anti Rugby League.
I’d rather watch the Lions U19 B side against the Griffons than the RLWC final.
Having said that, in the 80’s the then powerhouse of English Club Rugby (Union), played a 2 match series against the League champions. I think it was Wigan but can’t be sure.
The vlokkers of the 13 man game were victorious on an aggregate score after 1 Union game and 1 league game.
Whether it would still be so is anyones guess. We must remember that in those days Union was a largely “amateur” sport, whilst League has always been very professionally run.
17@ Scrumdown:
Forgot to say, the Union side was Bath.
Seems like I’m talking to myself here. At least I know I’ll have intelligent conversation.
Ah well, seeing as the rain seems to have let up for a while, let me go and see a client and see if I can make a bit of money for some sugar and milk to put with that dry Pap!
Hehehehe. I see the weekly prize on Superbru this week is a years supply of beer.
“Our top South African player will win a year’s supply of beer (i.e. 12 cases of Castle Lager) from the new, simple sports betting service BET.co.za.”
To my simple mind that makes it 144 beers for 365 days of the year, or approximately 0,3945 beers a day for a year.
FFS where do these people live? My cat can drink more than that and not fall over!
@ Scrumdown:
You forgot the most important one.
Go fetch me your lady so I can show you what to do with her.
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