The prospects of three teams from either New Zealand or South Africa making Super Rugby’s six-team playoffs is firming, as is the embarrassment of Australia having just one.
A New Zealand view-
For the second week running the Blues escaped major damage after a loss to remain in second place despite fading to a 28-26 loss to the Stormers at Eden Park.
And in Napier, the Crusaders’ remarkable campaign rode the radar and running game of first-five Dan Carter and the second-half scrummaging strength of lock Brad Thorn to a 25-19 win over the Chiefs.
With bye points to bank for the Blues this week and the Crusaders a week later, the two injury-hit sides’ prospects of reaching the playoffs look bright, while the Highlanders have a favourable run-in.
South Africa’s charge is on and though a string of local derbies in coming weeks will not help the cause of the defending champion Bulls or the Sharks side they beat 32-23 in Durban, one is likely to sneak into the six.
The Bulls’ win lifted them to eighth (40 points), just three points behind the Sharks and Highlanders.
Across the Tasman, there may be more angst than optimism about the Waratahs’ chances of joining the table-topping Reds in the playoffs.
Former Wallabies coach Eddie Jones has strongly questioned the validity of five Australian franchises and the position of the Force, Brumbies and Rebels near the foot of the table backs his views.
Considering the easy points those stragglers have presented the Australian conference, there could be some red faces if the Waratahs do not qualify.
The Sydneysiders beat the Lions 29-12 and lie fifth overall, but with the Sharks, Bulls and Highlanders to come, will be doing well to still be in the race by the time they meet the Brumbies in the final round.
The All Blacks coaches will be pleased after a weekend that saw their two prized possessions, Carter, with 20 points, and openside Richie McCaw, edge closer to their best in Napier.
They may also have noted wing Zac Guildford who gave a reminder of his talents with a strong all-round display in front of his former Hawke’s Bay home crowd.
Most pleasing though for Crusaders coach Todd Blackadder would have been the efforts of his pack, which stepped up in the absence of injured backs like Sonny Bill Williams, Israel Dagg and Sean Maitland, to take the game by the scruff of the neck.
Less pleasing for Graham Henry and co would have been how the Blues let the Stormers off the hook in conceding a late try to resurgent Springbok veteran flanker Schalk Burger at Eden Park.
It was a blown opportunity for the Blues, who sat back on their first-half lead to let the Stormers back into the match and paid the price.
Burger’s try was controversial, with the Blues players believing he was short of the line, but inconclusive evidence forced the TMO to rightly award the benefit of the doubt to the attacking side after being asked if there was any reason not to award the try.
In the other two matches of the round, the Cheetahs romped to their fourth successive win 41-21 over the Melbourne Rebels in Bloemfontein, while the Western Force and the Brumbies drew 13-13 in Perth.
With only 4 weeks of Super Rugby left, the top 9 teams are still (technically) in with a shot at the expanded play-offs.
At this point the Reds are certainly going through, as leaders of their conference, with more than two full wins ahead of the Waratahs.
The Stormers played themselves into a nice position on Saturday, not only beating NZ’s top team, but also negating the loss against the Chiefs.
Yet the Blues, despite losing on the weekend is still second on the overall log, leader of the NZ conference, and in a good position.
The Crusaders though, kept themselves in touch of the Blues on this weekend with a win over the Chiefs.
The next 5 spots on the log is where it gets tight.
As it stands (with the top 6 teams going through) SA has only one representative in the play-offs. Yet, the 3 teams laying in wait to pounce for the 5th and 6th spot are all South African. Between spot 5 and 8 there are only 5 points in it.
The following games will surely shape the log and the final 6 in the next 4 weeks.
Week 14:
Sharks vs. Waratahs
Bulls vs. Cheetahs
Reds vs. Crusaders.
Week 15:
Bulls vs. Waratahs
Blues vs. Chiefs.
Cheetahs vs. Sharks.
Week 16:
Saders vs. Blues
Tahs vs. Higlanders
Stormers vs. Bulls.
Week 17:
Blues vs. Highlanders
Bulls vs. Sharks
Cheetahs vs. Stormers.
Basically, here is how it stands. The Bulls and Sharks needs to win at least 2-3 games, and reversely the Highlanders and Waratahs need to lose 2-3 games.
As it stands the Waratahs are playing both the SA contenders, as well as the Highlanders. The Sharks and Bulls play each other, and that could decide which one of them goes through.
Then again, the Sharks play the Lions, and the Bulls play the Stormers (away).
The Highlanders have the most easy games left, with games against and Lions and Force But they can still fall short against the Tahs and Blues. And thats enough.
I honestly believe that if the Three SA teams, Bulls, Sharks and Stormers, all bring it to the party in the next 4 weeks, there is no reason why SA should not have Number 2, 5 and 6 going into the play-offs.
GOOD LUCK TO THE SHARKS AND BULLS! LETS DO IT FOR SA.
@ Greenpoint-Gunner:
Everyones favorite 2nds the Cheetahs can damage both the Bulls and Sharks chances if they dont calm down now. :LOL: they have proven their point now, go away, capice 😀
@ Greenpoint-Gunner:
I am not so confident.
By my calculations this is how the logs will end.
Reds 68
Crusaders 64
Stormers 60
Then the rest
Blues 62
Waratahs 54
Highlanders 54
Bulls 52
Sharks 52
Blues have one of the easiest run ins. Away to the Crusaders, at home vs the highlanders, a bye, and the chiefs at home. at least another 12 points for them.
The Waratahs has Sharks and Bulls away, then Highlanders and Brumbies at home. Should be at least 8 points for them, We must hope they lose without any bonus points to the Sharks and Bulls, and most definitely lose to the highlanders, which i personally think is not going to happen.
The highlanders have Lions and Western Force at home, Waratahs and Blues away. At least 10 points on offer against the Lions and force.
The Bulls have the Cheetahs, Waratahs and Sharks at home, and Stormers away. Should be 12 points for them, but they will fall short.
The Sharks have only one more home game vs the Waratahs, then away to the Lions, Bulls and Cheetahs, a possible 8 points for them.
Overall it looks because of the draw, that the two SA teams with tough home runs might just fall short.
These are the big encounters where wins and bonus points will make the difference, and we must hope that the Waratahs and Highlanders lose as many as possible and not get bonus points.
Sharks vs Waratahs
Bulls vs Waratahs
Waratahs vs Highlanders
Blues vs highlanders
We could hope for some upsets
highlanders vs Western Force
Brumbies vs Waratahs.
So in the SA conference the VRYSTAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAT are the king makers or breakers!
@ Loosehead:
Would have been great if the Cheetahs had 2 more wins, that would have put the Cat amongst the pigeons.
superBul wrote:
of sou dit die Cheetah tussen die varke gewees het :LOL:
@ Loosehead:
Ja boet, the problem is we have four teams that are competitive. The Cheetahs may not make the top six but with home games to the Sharks and Stormers and an away game to the Bulls, with a bye added to that, they could end on 40+ points on the log.
Looking at our possible log
Stormers 60
Bulls 52
Sharks 52
Cheetahs 40+
That does show we have depth in 4 Franchises, and if the Cheetahs win two of those matches they migth end third in our conference.
Goooooooooooooo Bulls!
@ grootblousmile:
GBS, geluk met jou span se vertoning, hulle het gemors met Willem en sy trawante daar in die enjin kamer.
9@ biltongbek:
Ek het gesê voor die naweek dat ek sal BEGIN glo die Bulls kan die play-off’s maak na ‘n goeie Bulls wên teen die Sharks… let wel, BEGIN GLO..
Daar is nog baaaaie water wat moet loop en komende naweek se game teen die Staat is ‘n grote!
Sou die Bulls die ene goed deurtrek, behoort ons te begin opskuiwe van Nr 8 op die gekombineerde Log na Nr 7 en met Nr 6 dan taamlik naby, binne bereik… net jammer vir die spanner in die works met Fourie du Preez se besering.
grootblousmile wrote:
There, fixed it for you! 😆
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