As we are moving towards the business end of the Super Rugby Conference rounds, the supporters will start to work out what the possible permutations are for teams to reach the play-off rounds, where 15 teams will be reduced to only 6.
The 3 Conference leaders are guaranteed a play-off spot each, whereas 3 further wildcard spots will be up for grabs to fill the other 3 spots, those being the 3 sides who, besides the Conference leaders, end highest on the Combined Log.
Teams on the fringes of these top positions, will have their work cut out, for the 3 wildcard spots, with the Crusaders, Sharks, Waratahs, Highlanders and Bulls the 5 likely candidates fighting for just 3 spots.
I found myself fervently working out the chances of the Bulls, currently in 8th spot, 2 spots too low to make it.
The facts are though, anything can and will happen this weekend and in the weeks to follow, but for the Bulls, Waratahs & Highlanders every game from hereon in might be last chance saloon.
The contenders play each other in these next 5 weeks, making for do or die efforts in every game!
- The Bulls have to square off twice with the Sharks but additionally with the Waratahs, Cheetahs and Stormers too, all in 5 weeks, with no let up – 5 difficult games.
- The Waratahs still have to play the Sharks, Bulls and Highlanders in 3 successive weeks – 3 monster games out of 5.
- The Highlanders still have to play the Waratahs and the Blues and have the luxury of a lucky bye weekend this week – 2 difficult games.
- The Sharks still have to play the Bulls twice, the Warathas & the Cheetahs – 4 tough games out of 5.
- The Crusaders still have to play top dogs, the Reds and Blues after playing the resurgent Chiefs this weekend – 2 difficult games.
- The Stormers still have to face the Bulls and Cheetahs after 2 relatively easy games on their tour Down Under, if one could frivilously speak about easy tour games – 2 difficult games.
- The Blues have a bye weekend but then still have to play the resurgent Chiefs, Crusaders and the Highlanders – 2 difficult games.
- The overall Log leaders, the Reds, still have to play the Crusaders next week and the Chiefs in the final week, with 2 lower teams in between – 1 difficult game.
So, who’s got the easiest run-in towards the play-offs and who has the toughest road to follow?
Undoubtedly the Reds have the easiest run-in towards the play-offs and equally undoubtedly the Bulls have the toughest road to follow, followed closely by the Sharks.
This weekend’s clash between the Bulls and Sharks and possibly the one between them in the last week (should the Bulls win the first encounter) is therefor of epic proportions and might just decide whether they make it or not!
…. but is it enough to reach the play-offs…. I recon not and here’s why:
The team who ends at No 3, a Conference winner, then faces the No 6 team in the Quarters, and logic would suggest that a team 3 places above the other should take it comfortably enough, at home. So to end 6th stacks the odds heavily against you, to say the least! Also, should the No 6 team manage to win the Quarter, they will be faced with a situation that the next 2 games will also be away from home, no chance for a home semi or home final.
The team who ends at No 4, faces the team in No 5 spot in the Quarters, but the 5th placed side would have to play away from home then and if they managed to get past this obstacle, again away in a semi, at least… stacking the odds against them as well.
From No 4 up, we start to see some home Quarters… and anything or any permutation is possible after that.
So, if you want to stand a realistic chance of winning this Competition, DO NOT end lower than 4th, otherwise the mountain to climb simply becomes too steep.
That is looking at things logically…. but since when has rugby ever slavishly followed logic…
Gooooooooooooo Bulls!
Spot on analysis as always bigblu! It’s clear why they pay you the big bucks. As you’ve laid out, there is no chance for the teams ending 5 and 6. and it’s not easy for 4 and 3. So based on that I am supporting the permutation that lets SA teams end 2 and 4 with 5/6 being a bonus. That realistically means Stormers 2 and Sharks 4 and bonus Bulls 5/6. This is now the time where Lions for the first time in the history of the comp can do the other saffa teams a favour by beating either the Tahs or the Landers or even both!
Ag Nee GBS, here I was hoping to see your permutations for the Super 15 bolters! Cheetahs to sneak into the playoffs! They just need to win 4/4! Then hope that preferably the Warahtahs, Chiefs and Highlanders toss a couple!
Cheetahs play the Rebels and score a 5 pointer = 34
Cheetahs beat a weary Bulls team, after a draining encounter with the Shaaaaks 4 points = 38
Cheetahs beat a weary Shaaaks team after a draining encounters against the Bulls, and then Waratahs 5 points = 43
Bye and Cheetahs win lol 4 points = 47
Cheetahs beat weary Stormers after playing a fired up Bulls team = 4 points = 47
Damn still might not be enough! Lol, bugger guess I will have to wait until next year!
@ Cheetah4eva:
Most people like the Cheatahs and want to see them do well but that match against the Canes where they lost in the last min was the final nail in their coffin as far as their qualifying hopes were concerned. Sorry bru, but you will have to wait for next year.
As for the Bulls, the match against the Force was where their hopes of defending their title, realistically ended.
Hmmmmm yes, that was a most annoying loss, as we had it in the bag. But it also sparked the team, and since then they have been a revelation. I will have to wait until next year, and given that this Cheetah team is still young, I look forward to an intense CC
Coenie 22
Strauss 25
WP Nel 24
Uys 25
Wilhelm Steenkamp 25
Brussow 24
Juan Smith 30
Johnson 24
de Bruyn 26?
Sias Ebersohn 22
Rayno Benjamin 27
Adriaan Strauss 25
Robert Ebersohn 22
Phillip Burger 29
Hennie Daniller 27
Marcel vd Merwe 20
Skipper Badenhorst 30
Walti Vermeulen 22
Izak vd Westhuizen 23
Philip vd Walt 22
Phillip Snyman 23
Johan Wessells 24
Corne Uys 27
Riaan Smit 27
This is basically the Super 15 team, minus Viljoen, and Pretorius. Man we will miss Sarel!!
Quiver in fear Sharks, Bulls, Stormers, and Lions
3@ Cheetah4eva:
A Team will need at least 55 PLUS Log Points to get into the play-off’s, possibly even as high as 58 to qualify just for 6th spot.
Guess that effectively rules the Cheetahs out.
It means the Bulls must get 20 – 22 Log points out of 5 games, only 3 or so lower than a full tally for the remaining games (25 points). Very unlikely.
It means the Sharks must get 15 Log points from 5 games to qualify for 6th spot, very possible…. but to get to 4th spot one would need 62 Log Points or thereabouts, that means Sharks need 19 Log points for a realistic chance, which basically equals 5 wins from hereon in OR 3 bonus point wins PLUS one 4 point win and a loss.
It means the Stormers can’t afford to rest on their laurels, otherwise either the Sharks or Bulls might haul them in and possibly overtake them, unlikely though.
It also means that not 1 single Super Rugby Team is safe yet, not even the Reds… but they’re damn close.
For the Bulls, the teams to attack with all might and to beat is the Sharks and the Waratahs, to get above them on the Logs…. then clich a better spot with good wins over the Cheetahs and the Stormers.
The Bulls have no hand against the Landers, they don’t play them again….
How likely is that… not at all, I tell you!
@ grootblousmile:
GBS….you dont factor in if other top teams lose I think…teams can lose more than you say and still make it, if other teams also lose.
I don’t know why they keep on playing Victor….the man clearly needs to rest….and as I have said many times already, the refs have emasculated Bakkies. Bulls should concede and start preparing for world cup….this is my worry for the Stormers and the Sharks that too many players are overplayed and not rested. Tri Nations we must defo not play the first choices, they guys must rest and just do conditioning prior to the world cup….it worked for us last time…..everybody is playing too much rugby, its crazy.
Euro/Swiss Franc is going long rapidly, my prediction of the turn coming at the main support level of 1.2414 has come true. Touch wood it should climb this weekend to give me 7% ROC in 3 days.
8@ 4man:
You say I did’nt factor in if other top-teams lose… well, let’s see if I did’nt…
Reds: Are on 54 with this week’s bye, then they play the Crusaders, Brumbies, Force, Chiefs… let’s say they pick up 2 bonus point wins and 2 losses, possible 12 points would be fair, not true… taking them to 66
Blues: Are on 50 after this morning, then they have a bye, then play the Chiefs, Crusaders, Highlanders…. let’s say they only beat one of the 3 and pick up a point somewhere, with the 4 points from the bye…. that takes them to 59 or 60 in a worst case scenario situation.
Stormers: Are on 48 after this morning, next they play the Brumbies, Rebels, Bulls, Cheetahs…. let’s say they win 2 and get 2 extra Log points (they’ll get more), it brings them to 60, in a worst case scenario.
Crusaders: are on 44 now but tomorrow they play the Chiefs, then Reds, then a bye, then the Blues and finally the Canes… lets say they pick up 1 from the Chiefs, 1 from the Blues or Reds and then beat the Canes, that is 11 or 12 points added to their 44, making it 56 in a worst case scenario.
Sharks: Are on 43 now, they play the Bulls, Waratahs, Cheetahs, Lions and Bulls again…. lets give them 1 Bonus point win, 1 win and 2 other points.. worst case… that’s 11 points, taking them to 54 or 55.
Waratahs: They are on 40, tomorrow they play the Lions, then the Sharks, Bulls, Highlanders & Brumbies.. lets say they pick up 12 Log points, worst case…. taking them to 52
Highlanders are on 43 after this weekend’s bye, then they play the Lions, Force, Waratahs & Blues…. let’s say they win the 2 easy ones and get 1 more point somewhere… taking them to 55, worst case scenario.
Bulls: They are on 36, tomorrow they play the Sharks, then the Cheetahs, Waratahs, Stormers and then the Sharks again… let’s say they win 2 and get 2 points… taking them to 46 to 48 somewhere.
Let’s stop it there…. let’s look at 6th place…
Who will all be on 55 or over:
Reds
Blues
Stormers
Crusaders
Sharks
Highlanders
EXACTLY 6 of them on or over 55, so THAT is the bench mark for 6th spot, worst case scenario, like I PREDICTED in COMMENT # 6 [55]… possibly rather then 57 or 58 in a Better Case Scenario, not true, LIKE I PREDICTED IN COMMENT # 6 [58].
Now let’s look at 4th place….
Who will all be on or over 62:
Reds
…. but the Blues, Stormers, Crusaders, Sharks & Highlanders come close to that mark in a WORST CASE SCENARIO, say realistically 3 of the 5 do not experience worst case, then they will all be over 60 or 61… and 61 or 62 becomes the bench mark for 4th place just LIKE I PREDICTED IN COMMENT # 6 [62].
So just where exactly did I not figure in losses by the Top Sides, I beg to ask?
I maintain my view, 55 – 58 will be the cut-off for 6th place, and 60 – 63 will be the cut-off for 4th place!
OK
Let me throw in my opinion.
3 plays 6 , if 3 is SA and 6 is also SA , six travel away from home but stays in SA.
If 4 is another SA team that playoff will also be in SA
SA Ending 4 and 5 will have the first playoff round in SA.
IF
6 wins he will have to play 1, overseas
The winner of 4 and 5 will travel to 2,s home
Now the fun starts, the Bulls if they have to travel out there they have this great belief that traveling late is the winning secret. So dont write them of winning that game. That even opens the door for a Loftus final. YES you heard it right , by ending 4 or 5 they have a slight chance to play the final at Fortress Loftus.
HOW
If 6 makes it through the first playoff and go overseas to win the game against No. 2
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