A powerful typhoon that organisers have warned could impact the final weekend of the World Cup pool stage has changed course, leaving forecasters and pundits wondering which games might be affected and who could benefit.
According to the latest modelling from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Super Typhoon Hagibis is now projected to clip southeastern Japan, near Tokyo and Yokohama.
This is a significant change from Monday’s forecast, when the storm was expected to make landfall in Japan’s far southwest. However, such radical changes in direction are not unusual for typhoons nearing Japan, which sees around 20 per year.
Hagibis could also continue its easterly track and miss Japan altogether.
“The Honshu main islands will see heavy rains from as early as Friday, and the peak of the bad weather will be on Saturday and Sunday,” JMA official Yoshinori Muira said.
Hagibis is currently classed as “violent” – the JMA’s highest classification, with gusts as strong as 270 kilometres per hour (165 miles per hour). It is forecast to weaken before it nears Japan but will still be “very strong”.
If the current forecast holds, the danger would appear to be lower for crunch games in the southwest (Ireland-Samoa on Saturday in Fukuoka and Wales-Uruguay on Sunday in Kumamoto).
However, with the storm shifting east, there is now a threat for two other huge games in Yokohama, just south of Tokyo.
England play France in a Pool C decider in Yokohama on Saturday and Japan play Scotland on Sunday, in a match that will determine whether the hosts qualify for their first quarterfinal.
Organisers warned later Tuesday that it “remains too early to fully predict the movement and impact of the storm.”
“However, the latest modelling by our weather information experts indicates that it is now tracking north and east and will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Tokyo and surrounding areas on 12 October.”
Organisers say they have “robust contingency plans” and can change the venue of a fixture or the timing if bad weather looks set to affect the match.
“Such plans, if required, will only be actioned if the safety of teams, fans, and workforce can be guaranteed,” Rugby World Cup organisers said in a statement.
However, if a match is cancelled during the pool stages of the tournament, it is awarded as a 0-0 draw.
In the case of the England-France game, this would send Eddie Jones’s side through as Pool C champions and a quarter-final meeting likely against old rivals Australia.
A 0-0 draw would also guarantee Japan topping Pool A and another clash with the Springboks, whom they famously beat 34-32 in the 2015 “Miracle of Brighton” match.
But a cancellation would be a disaster for the Scots, who would be unable to progress assuming Ireland beat Samoa, as expected, the day before.
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Views from above
Wednesday afternoon’s official prediction of track and intenisty of Typhoon Hagibis
Tuesday afternoon’s official prediction of track and intenisty of Typhoon Hagibis
