Glasgow Warriors Head Coach Dave Rennie will be hoping a couple of weekends off is just what his squad needed to freshen up after a long and attritional season. It’s certainly been good for the Warriors’ injury list with just 4 longer-term absentees unavailable.

The coaches would have had 44 members of the full-time squad to select from this week – that’s a lot higher than the season average of 31 and there would have been some big debates before the final calls were made. The selection is a high quality one and predominantly homegrown as Glasgow seek to make it to their third Grand Final.

19 of the 23 are Scottish qualified
19 of the 23 are capped internationals
15 of the 23 came through either the Scottish Rugby Academy or Elite Development Programme

The 23 players selected have a combined 1,726 previous appearances for the Warriors – the most for any matchday squad this season.

Teams

Glasgow Warriors

15 Stuart Hogg

14 Tommy Seymour
13 Nick Grigg
12 Sam Johnson
11 DTH van der Merwe

10 Finn Russell
9 George Horne

1 Jamie Bhatti
2 Fraser Brown
3 Zander Fagerson
4 Tim Swinson
5 Jonny Gray
6 Matt Fagerson
7 Callum Gibbins
8 Ryan Wilson (Captain)

Substitutes

16 George Turner
17 Alex Allan
18 Siua Halanukonuka
19 Robert Harley
20 Chris Fusaro
21 Henry Pyrgos
22 Peter Horne
23 Ruaridh Jackson

Scarlets

15 Johnny McNicholl

14 Tom Prydie
13 Scott Williams
12 Hadleigh Parkes
11 Steff Evans

10 Rhys Patchell
9 Gareth Davies

1 Rob Evans
2 Ken Owens (Captain)
3 Samson Lee
4 Tadhg Beirne
5 Steve Cummins
6 Aaron Shingler
7 James Davies
8 John Barclay

Substitutes

16 Ryan Elias
17 Wyn Jones
18 Werner Kruger
19 Lewis Rawlins
20 Will Boyde
21 Jonathan Evans
22 Dan Jones
23 Steff Hughes

Head to Head:
Back 3 – ADV Glasgow
Centres – ADV Scarlets
Half Backs – EVEN
Front Row – ADV Scarlets
Second Row – ADV Glasgow
Back Row – ADV Scarlets
Substitutes – ADV Glasgow

Glasgow Greetings:
Time for a hearty welcome back home for skipper Ryan Wilson who, remarkably, will be playing his first game at Scotstoun since the Warriors took on Montpellier at the start of December – an absence of more than 5 months.

Once A Warrior:
There will be plenty of old friends on the pitch after the final whistle has blown – but they’ll all be best of enemies until that point! Only 5 men have played more games for Glasgow than the visitors’ flanker John Barclay, who was recently voted into the Warriors’ Team of the Decade. Former Scarlet DTH van der Merwe also made that squad and he will be looking at the possibility of winning his 3rd championship in 4 seasons if Glasgow can finish the campaign with 2 more victories.

One to Watch:
On the occasion of his last game at Scotstoun (well at least until next season when fate surely means a high probability of Glasgow drawing Racing 92 in the Champions Cup!) Finn Russell will be central to how well the Warriors perform. Closing in on 600 points for the club (4th all-time for Glasgow) he will need to have his kicking boots on to help the Warriors keep the scoreboard ticking over.

More than that though the fans will be hoping to see the big game player who has stepped up in the 4 previous playoff matches he played a significant part in. A balmy evening in Glasgow, with the 2 best attacking teams in the league going head to head and Finn playing the game with a smile in his face. What more could you ask for by way of entertainment?

The Glasgow v Scarlets fixture in the PRO12 / PRO14 era:
3 wins
3 losses
2 Losing BPs (for Glasgow)
14 points out of a possible 30 (47%) (for Glasgow)

Key player stats:

Top tacklers
Glasgow: Jonny Gray – 14.2 tackles per 80 minutes, 99% completion rate
Scarlets: Aaron Shingler – 12.9 tackles per 80 minutes, 98% completion rate

The Scarlets back row unit as a whole have been exceptionally consistent in their defensive duties this season. Between them they have only missed 12 tackles in the PRO14 (Davies 9, Shingler 2, Barclay 1).

Top carriers
Glasgow: Matt Fagerson – 12.0 carries per 80 minutes
Scarlets: Steff Evans – 11.5 carries per 80 minutes

Unusually the visitors don’t really have a forward who dominates ball-carrying duty, with no-one in their pack averaging 10 or more runs per game. (By contrast Glasgow have 3 players – the younger Fagerson, Gibbins and Gray – hitting double digits in this stat). The Scarlets’ workload is well spread and they also like to get the ball wide regularly and into the hands of players like Steff Evans who can make something happen even in the least promising of situations.

Attacking threat
Glasgow: DTH van der Merwe – a defender beaten for every 1.5 carries
Scarlets: Steff Evans – a defender beaten for every 2.7 carries

It’s quality as well as quantity for the Welsh winger when it comes to his work with ball in hand. Evans breaks tackles for fun – he’s a slippery customer and very hard to get a good solid hit on. He’s also the Scarlets top man for clean breaks with 24 for the season and the Warriors’ defence will need to be extremely cautious when he’s around the ball.

Home and Away:
Glasgow last 6 in PRO14 (H) – W W W W W W
Scarlets last 6 in PRO14 (A) – W L L L L W

Officials:
Referee: John Lacey (IRFU, 70th competition game)
AR1: Andrew Brace (IRFU)
AR2: Frank Murphy (IRFU)
TMO: Olly Hodges (IRFU)

Mr Lacey’s record in the PRO14 this season:

Matches – 6 (147 for all refs)
Average penalty count – 17.8 (19.1 all refs)
Average penalties for home team – 7.8 (9.0 all refs)
Average penalties for away team – 10.0 (10.1 all refs)
Yellow cards – 0.5 per game (0.8 per game all refs)

Mr Lacey has been fairly kind to home sides this campaign with one of the lower rates (44%) among PRO14 refs of penalties going against the hosts. That’s countered by Glasgow’s relatively poor disciplinary record when the former Munster player has been the man in the middle though.

The Warriors averaged 11.3 penalties a game against and just 8.6 for in the 9 games Mr Lacey refereed over the previous 4 seasons. Of the 8 yellow cards he issued in those matches 7 were for Glasgow players. It has been over a year and half since the Irish whistler took charge of a Warriors’ fixture though. Hopefully that means a clean slate and no preconceptions about what he expects from the team on Friday night.

2017/18 PRO14 Head to Head Team stats (Glasgow Warrior figures left):

SCORING
81 (2nd in PRO14)   Total tries for   69 (5th in PRO14)
38 (1st)   Total tries against   43 (3rd)
81% (4th)   Kick success rate  76% (6th)

Both sides have broken their respective club records for tries scored in the regular season. Glasgow in particular have been try happy in this campaign, topping the 72 scores notched during 2016/17 despite playing a game less.

Having only conceded 16 tries during their 10 league fixtures at Scotstoun the home side will be looking to shut down the Scarlets’ attack. That’s easier saaid than done though and while the loss of Leigh Halfpenny is a blow for the visitors’ defence and kicking game, the return of Johnny McNicholl adds to their firepower. He was a key component in the all-court attack from anywhere rugby that took his side to last season’s title.

ATTACK
475 (1st)   Metres run   377 (8th)
10.2 (1st)   Clean breaks   8.6 (5th)
20.5 (3rd)   Defenders beaten   18.0 (8th)
17.2 (14th)   Turnovers conceded   14.8 (11th)

If there’s one number that could change Glasgow’s fortunes for good or ill it’s that turnover figure. A combination of lost possession at ruck and maul plus handling errors, it’s an area where the Warriors have (statistically speaking anyway) the poorest record in the league.

It’s partly a result of the high octane style they play and crucially every one of these possessions conceded is really a try-scoring opportunity lost. Games like the 1872 Cup first leg have slipped away from Glasgow as they’ve coughed up the ball when the hard work of breaking through the defence has been done. If they can keep turnovers to a minimum though the Warriors will be very difficult to contain.

DEFENCE
129 (8th)   Tackles made   124 (11th)
87.9% (7th)   Tackle completion   88.6% (5th)
5.5 (1st)   Clean breaks conceded   7.7 (7th)

In the first half of the season Glasgow were near the top for the number of tackles made but they’ve moved more towards the middle of the pack as the league has progressed. That suggests they have spent a little bit more time in possession, which may well be one of the keys to negating the Scarlets’ attacking talents – just don’t let them have the ball!

Overall though neither of these teams are really set up for attritional defensive duties. Which is good news for those hoping for an open, entertaining, attacking contest on Friday night.

BREAKDOWN
97.0% (2nd)   Ruck success (own ball)   96.5% (10th)
3.8% (5th)   Ruck success (opposition ball)   4.2% (2nd)
79.1% (12th)   Maul success (own ball)   89.3% (4th)
11.6% (9th)   Maul success (opposition ball)   20.2% (2nd)

The Scarlets have plenty of players who can be a total menace at the breakdown – James Davies, Tadhg Beirne and John Barclay in particular are likely to be a pain in the proverbial. The number of turnovers they win is unlikely to be huge (relative to the total number of rucka) but each one has a double value in denying Glasgow possession to profit from while simultaneously allowing the Scarlets their own shot at creating a points scoring situation.

The ability to just slow the speed of the attacking ball and allow time for the defence to reset (a Barclay speciality) will also be crucial to hindering the Warriors’ attacking effectiveness.

SET PIECE
94.7% (3rd)   Scrum success (own ball)   90.5% (12th)
7.7% (9th)   Scrum success (opposition ball)   12.2% (1st)
86.9% (11th)   Lineout success (own ball)   90.7% (3rd)
13.2% (5th)   Lineout success (opposition ball)   7.4% (13th)

The scrum numbers might surprise some who feel the Warriors’ setpiece has suffered this season. They’ve been effective at getting their own ball in and out though. The Scarlets’ numbers on the opposition put-in demonstrate that they view the scrum as much more of an opportunity to contest the ball and win penalties / free kicks. The two sides’ previous meeting this season suggests that Dave Rennie and his coaching staff will have to have come up with some kind of plan to contain the Scarlets’ scrum.

DISCIPLINE
10.2 (10th)   Penalties conceded   7.2 (1st)
9.7 (6th=)   Penalties won   9.9 (5th)
5 (2nd=)   Total yellow cards   1 (1st)

Scarlets’ level of discipline is quite frankly otherwordly. To concede the fewest penalties in a league containing Munster and Leinster is a remarkable achievement! Glasgow may need to accept that there won’t be many easy opportunities to kick their way into the visitors’ 22 – they’re going to need to work for every yard.

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