It should be a 3-way fight between England, Ireland and Wales for the Six Nations title on Saturday, although France still have an outside chance.
The Top 3 are locked on 6 Points with 3 wins apiece, while England’s points difference of +37 puts them 1st, ahead of Ireland’s +33 and Wales’ +12.
France are 4th with 4 Points and a points difference of +22.
Philippe Saint-Andre’s side could still steal the title if Wales and Ireland lose and Les Bleus then beat England by a margin of 8 points or more, but it looks a remote possibility.
If teams are level on points, and match-points difference, then England are likely to win the Championship on tries scored, having crossed 11 times to Ireland’s 4 and Wales’ 5. In the highly unlikely event this was also level come Saturday night, the trophy would be shared.
Wales are in action 1st away to Italy in Rome (14:30 SA Time, 12:30 GMT), before Ireland take on Scotland at Murrayfield (16:30 SA Time, 14:30 GMT), ahead of England’s home match against France at Twickenham (19:00 SA Time, 17:00 GMT).
With the Six Nations wide open, we assess the 4 teams’ chances.
England vs France:
England are slight favourites and have the advantage of a superior points difference and playing last, so they will know what they have to do.
France might not be the ideal opposition for a title contender’s final match, but Les Bleus have been as frustrating and underwhelming as ever this year, losing to Ireland and Wales.
England, with lock Geoff Parling replacing Dave Attwood in their only change from the Scotland victory on 14 March, have not won the title since 2011 but, against an underachieving French side, will be hopeful of ending that wait.
The French have made 2 changes from the side that beat Italy, both enforced by injury, as Jules Plisson replaces Camille Lopez at flyhalf while Vincent Debaty starts at loosehead prop in place of Eddy Ben Arous.
England must beat France by a sufficient margin that if Ireland defeat Scotland, England’s current 4-point advantage over the Irish is not eroded – and that, of course, assumes Wales have not hammered Italy.
If the Irish and Welsh both lose their matches then the match at Twickenham effectively becomes a title decider.
Although England will be favourites, should both Wales and Ireland lose, then France could pull off the unlikeliest of title heists.
Wales vs Italy:
As they did in 2013, Wales have recovered from a poor start to haul themselves back into title contention.
An opening defeat by England dented confidence and shattered hopes of a 3rd Grand Slam under Warren Gatland but victories against Scotland, France and Ireland have given them a chance of lifting the Six Nations trophy again.
The odds are against Wales – they travel to Italy with the daunting task of having to win handsomely, knowing that even that might not be enough should Ireland beat Scotland or England win against France.
They need to win by at least 26 points to overtake England’s points difference (a 22-point victory is required to leapfrog Ireland) before the later games.
Italy’s away win against Scotland showed what a threat they can be, and they will only be stronger in Rome – all Wales can do is win big and hope other results go their way.
They make 2 changes to their starting 15 – Aaron Jarvis comes in at at tighthead and Rob Evans makes his first start at loosehead in place of the injured Samson Lee and Gethin Jenkins.
Ireland vs Scotland:
Hopes of a Grand Slam may have evaporated in their defeat by Wales, but Ireland still have a strong chance of winning the title.
They are away against winless Scotland, and they will be aiming to pile more misery on Vern Cotter’s squad.
After losing to Wales, Irish confidence may be dented but against a Scotland team seemingly destined for the Wooden Spoon, they are still strong title contenders.
Ireland make 2 changes from the Wales defeat, as winger Luke Fitzgerald comes in for Simon Zebo and loosehead prop Cian Healy replaces Jack McGrath.
They have the benefit of knowing what Wales will have done, but with England kicking off after they have finished, they may be hesitant about whether to stick or twist.
bbc
Ireland have scored 4 tries so far this 6 Nations, Scotland 5. Would Ireland be worthy champions…
Wales have scored 5 tries and England 11 so far (although Wales have yet to play Italy, England scored 6 tries against Italy) – let’s see if any of these two teams have what it takes to win it.
Ireland have scored 4 and conceded 2 tries – 6 tries in all (between them and their opponents) in their 4 games – is this rugby as we would like it…
Fantastic the U20s are showing the seniors how to do it, Scotland beat Ireland tonight:
Scotland U20s 17/10 Ireland U20s. This is their 3rd win of this 6 Nations, Sean Lineen’s good work with the youngsters seems to be starting to pay off, hopefully this is the start of many more success for Scotland.
What do the pundits expect – Welshman Jonathan Davies (JD), Scotsman Andy Nichol (AN) and Englishman Jeremy Guscott (JG)
Which teams will win on Saturday?
JD : Wales, Ireland, England AN : Wales, Ireland, England JG : Wales, Scotland, England
Who will win the 6 Nations?
JD : England AN : Wales JG : England
Almost half time- Italy 13/11 Wales come on Wales
Halftime: Italy 13/14 Wales
WOW up from a wee nap to see Wales far ahead
Italy 13/61 Wales – 1 min left this leaves Wales with a points difference of +60
Try for Italy, checking for foot in touch
A try surely
Ireland +33 and England +37 with a game each to play
Final Score: Italy 20/61 Wales – 8 tries
So the rest of the afternoon is well set up and the permutations are as follows:
for Ireland to be in with a chance to catch Wales they must beat Scotland by 21 points
for England to be in with a chance to catch Wales win they must beat France by 17 points. I said after Wales beat Ireland last week that the 6 Nations was theirs to loose as thought they would beat Italy by far. Don’t think Ireland will beat Scotland by as much as they need. England/France mmmm not sure how that one will go…
2 min gone at Murrayfield – 0/0 so far. GO SCOTLAND
Ireland on the attack, lovely slick backline move gained them lots of groun
Paul O’ Connell barges over and scores but there was a typical bit of Kiwi inspired Ireland play as Russell was taken out off the ball beyond the ruck
Also Ireland prop took Jim Hamilton out just before O’Connell scores BUT predictably they say its ok, Scotland 0/7 Ireland and match officials as Sexton converts – 6th min
Ireland running from deep in their 22 take play into Scotland half but Scotland have it now
Adam Ashe makes a good tackle to halt Ireland’s momentum, he has been quite prominent so far
Penalty to Ireland for Scotland ‘obstruction’, by Laidlaw
Ireland all over Hogg who does so well to take the ball in goal area but penalty to Ireland as ref calls Scotland illegally stopped the Irish maul
Scotland 0/10 Ireland – 10th min, Sexton slots the penalty
Ashe carries strongly
High tackle on Fife but Scotland get a penalty for something else to relieve pressure, Murray is down injured.
Fife off with blood over his face with Visser on for him. Cross on for Murray.
Murray goes off slowly holding his nose with a lot of blood there
Visser tackled into touch deep in Ireland 22 as he had to stop to collect a pass that was a bit behind him
Scotland scrum as Ireland knock on in lineout, about 10m out
Laidlaw didn’t feed that one straight but Scotland get the ball back anyway and are going through the phases but Ireland steal well and clear
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