This is the first of a 3-part Series looking at each team’s chances with each Conference with little more than a third of the regular season remaining.

We kick off with the New Zealand Conference!

SUMMARY: The closest conference so far, there is only 5 Competition Log Points separating the teams and of all the countries, the amount of local derbies will ensure significant cannibalisation.

There are 11 New Zealand derby matches remaining in the last 7 rounds.

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Blues
25 points, 9th overall, 5th in New Zealand

STORY SO FAR: Unbeatable at home and the poorest of travellers, the Blues have established Eden Park as a fortress, but need to arrest their away record. However tactically the three-time champions look to have found the right balance, tinted with more than a fair amount of power. They are outmuscling teams, but their efforts against the Waratahs and Reds will need to be duplicated against local opposition.

CRYSTAL BALL: With three matches on the road in their final six matches, the gorilla on the Blues back needs to be subdued. While plenty seems to be falling into place, winning away is difficult enough in Super Rugby as it is, so getting the formula might may take something away from the field to click.

SQUAD WATCH: Led by most of their All Blacks firing, the Blues squad is looking the goods, aided by steady selection especially in the halves. It is a combination of an abrasive pack and a brutal and belligerent backline that is headlining the charge. Ma’a Nonu is looking like their best back, among Super Rugby’s finest in recent weeks, while up front the likes of Tony Woodcock are causing big issues for rivals.

TITLE CHANCE OR DAMAGE TEAM: Recent pedigree suggests a title chance, they are healthily placed in the middle of the table, but sitting fifth locally means that they need to cut a swathe through the New Zealand Conference if they are to take title number four.

Chiefs
30 points, 3rd overall, 1st in New Zealand

STORY SO FAR: It isn’t an exaggeration to say that things are not proceeding to plan for the defending champions, even if a combination of bonus points and their strong start (three wins from their opening three) have them remaining firmly in title calculations. Just two wins in their last seven is a clear sign of vulnerability, even if this is majorly influenced by more injuries than any other team.

CRYSTAL BALL: Five matches against local rivals represents a significant amount of danger to the Chiefs, who need to ensure they get the most out of their still standing troops. A fast finishing team when it comes to the regular season, a little like their attitude in matches. Statistically the two-time winners are up there on attack, but have shown a little wobble at the set piece of late.

SQUAD WATCH: A dozen injured players is a heavy toll for any side, doubly so for a team that has been heavily targeted by their rivals, especially at the breakdown and with some pinpoint kicking games. Liam Messam is shouldering a massive load so his management will be season defining, while Aaron Cruden is beginning to be severely missed.

TITLE CHANCE OR DAMAGE TEAM: Two championships in a row suggest that the coaching team and senior members of the team know what they need to do from here, but it isn’t unfair to say that have stuttered through the middle of the campaign, they will need to string wins together if they are to finish with home advantage – as they have in their last two seasons.

Crusaders
26 points, 6th overall, 2nd in New Zealand

STORY SO FAR: After just two wins in their first five matches, some put a line through the Crusaders chances, with no Dan Carter, an injury to Richie McCaw and some ineffective tactics limiting the team’s influence on Super Rugby. Four straights win has the side now established as a challenger. They might not dazzle or play pure running rugby, but they are scoring tries after a slow start and playing classical pressure rugby.

CRYSTAL BALL: Like the Highlanders the Crusaders have seven games remaining (versus six for the other three Kiwi franchises), and if they can beat a wounded Reds in Brisbane this weekend they will have four home games left from their final six. Such awesome home form, they have lost just five games in Christchurch since April 2009, and are unbeaten against Australian and South African teams there since 2004, makes this a significant point. If a final is staged at AMI Stadium, and Carter hits the ground running, they will be tough to beat.

SQUAD WATCH: If the remarkable impact of McCaw in his return match from injury is any indication, the Crusaders are beginning to hit form at the right time, with All Blacks beginning to fire, while the likes of Read and Carter will bring an immense point of difference to the franchise. Tactically the team is playing without confusion and they have a knack of producing results at this time of year.

TITLE CHANCE OR DAMAGE TEAM: The Crusaders haven’t won a Super Rugby title since 2008, a lengthy absence for a seven-time champion. To say the team is hungry is an understatement, and are in a strong position to gain their thirteenth straight final’s berth, and sixteenth overall. They haven’t had home elimination rights since their last trophy.

Highlanders
26 points, 8th overall, 4th in New Zealand

STORY SO FAR: After their worst ever season last year, there would have been some heart palpitations in the Deep South after a 30-12 loss in Auckland which was their third defeat in their opening five. Four victories in their last six, including the heady scalps of the Hurricanes and Sharks, has the team well placed, a competition equalling six bonus points ensures they are deep within final’s calculations.

CRYSTAL BALL: The Highlanders have a rough run home, something that they will have painstakingly planned for, after all, Jamie Joseph has seen late season fades in 2011 and 2012. Four away games, including two separate trips across the Tasman are sandwiched with home fixtures against the Crusaders and Chiefs. Injuries have been the issue for the team before, keeping a fit group of players will be the difference.

SQUAD WATCH: The teams two All Blacks in the Smiths need to remain on the field, but the likes of Malakai Fekitoa and Lima Sopoaga are pushing for international honours giving the squad more depth. Chris King and Nasi Manu are ensuring that the typical Southern forward grit is causing team’s issues, but best of all it appears that the coaching team, with the addition of Tony Brown this year, is getting the strategy right.

TITLE CHANCE OR DAMAGE TEAM: At this stage they are a mix of both, causing some damage and ripping up the prediction book, but despite the hint of a fairy-tale, this is the time of year when All Black laden Super Rugby sides begin to move into upper gears. Local rivals won’t be as much as a threat to the Highlanders, three of their last seven are outer conference fixtures.

Hurricanes
26 points, 7th overall, 3rd in New Zealand

STORY SO FAR: The Hurricanes had one of the slowest starts to Super Rugby of any team, just one win in their first five games had many writing off the side and others calling for heads, which led to a mid-season resignation from coach Mark Hammett. Since then the team has won four of five, and sits pretty as the most potent offensive franchise in the competition.

CRYSTAL BALL: The loss to the Waratahs wasn’t critical, but it did show that teams that play with the same attacking intent and offensive purpose as the Hurricanes can be successful. For all of the clichés regarding one match at a time, there are two segments for the team to complete before dreaming of final’s action. A game in Melbourne and back-to-back fixtures in Wellington are imminently winnable, but the Blues, Crusaders and Chiefs constitute a tough close – two of those games are on the road.

SQUAD WATCH: The Hurricanes are, despite their attacking talents, far from a one trick pony or a one-man outfit, their forwards are matching everything thrown at them, but some would suggest the men from Wellington has the best backline in Super Rugby. Few injuries are allowing for selection stability, but so far the outfit looks to have their tactical blueprint right, even if things can change very quickly.

TITLE CHANCE OR DAMAGE TEAM: The Hurricanes are a title chance, despite their more traditional reputation as a damage team. The franchise hasn’t reached the Super Rugby Finals Series since 2009, and look on course to qualify for the seventh time. However despite their strong run in the last few weeks, their early hiccups give them little room for error during the back end of the regular campaign.