The lowest mark for a Super Rugby Finals Series qualifier over recent years has been 53, meaning that this season one can mathematically assume in 2014 at least 45 points gives a team a chance of playing knockout rugby.

Remember 8 less points are on offer in 2014 with nothing awarded for a bye.

The Melbourne Rebels are now out of calculations, for while a potentially brilliant perfect 25 from 25 points in their closing run covers the rudimentary maths, they would need to rely on a perfect maelstrom of losing chaos at the top of the table.

The Blues, although 1oth and in a precarious position on the Log, have 5 games left, but from hereon in it is crunch time for them. They almost need a flawless run from here and a loss to the Sharks, will certainly put them out of the running on the weekend.

For the Vodacom Bulls, it becomes doubly difficult now, they only have 4 games left, compared to 5 by most of the teams above them in the pecking order. One more loss, and you can write them off. They need a near perfect run in their 4 games, earning at least 17 Log points from 4 games, so that means at least one bonus point try win and the rest all wins.

Evaluation in reverse order:

Blues, 10th overall, 25 Log points
(5 games remaining)

One more loss and the Blues are done, even if they still possess on paper one of the most All Blacks laden squads. Alas, for a team that hasn’t won more than two games in a row at any point of the season, speaks of inconsistency, even if they have showed signs – as is the Blues style – of blowing teams apart with their physical game.

Why they could still win it: If the Blues can translate their home form (unbeaten in 5 matches) to their 2 final away matches (6 losses, no victories), Auckland will get excited, but that means wins in Perth and Christchurch are non-negotiable. With senior All Blacks hitting their straps, the likes of Ma’a Nonu and Jerome Kaino would dearly love a maiden Super Rugby medallion.

Vodacom Bulls, 9th overall, 28 Log points
(4 games remaining)

Exactly like their counterparts in Auckland, the Bulls are invincible at home (5 wins and 1 draw) and they also dislike living out of suitcases, losing all 6 games on the road. Glass half full analysis shows that 5 losing bonus points in a row away from Pretoria indicates competitiveness even in defeat and their strangulation game is in rude health.

Why they could still win it: The Bulls offence is ranked 14th overall with just 18 tries scored, but the basic foundations of their classical style, which has sent many a team away empty handed at Loftus needs to rise to another level as they will want to win each of their final 4 games. Trips to Johannesburg and Cape Town will be tricky, even though they have a handy bye in Round 17 nestled right between those games.

Hurricanes, 8th overall, 31 Log points
(4 games remaining)

Still in contention, their 4-match winning streak and mid-season surge has wobbled with 2 losses in 3 games and the style of defeats are warning signs, outgunned at their own game by the Waratahs and drawn into the Highlanders preferred trench warfare style – their 36 tries still lead the competition but they have scored only 2 in the last fortnight.

Why they will win it: It isn’t a stretch to suggest that the Hurricanes backline is one of the sharpest combinations and will contribute a significant number to the All Blacks Top-ranked 23. However, while the presence of a class operator at No 10 (Barrett) helps win titles, sides need to win dogfights when required and despite the form of the forwards, they will have serious questions asked of them, especially with trips to Eden Park and Waikato Stadium to come.

Western Force, 7th overall, 31 Log points
(5 games remaining)

Like the Hurricanes, the Western Australians are just 1 competition point outside of the top 6, firmly in contention but while they could in theory take another loss, they will need to win 4 of their last 5, but with 3 of those in front of that excitable Perth crowd, anything could happen.

Why they will win it: With 7 wins from their last 9 matches, the script is coming along nicely, even if they encountered a Stormers team that arguably played their best game of the season. They have trips to Christchurch and Canberra, which will be make or break encounters. There is a core confidence in this team however and emotion can be a powerful weapon, indeed this is arguably the backbone behind the Force defence.

Crusaders, 6th overall, 32 Log points
(5 games remaining)

The 7-time champion’s loss to the Sharks was their 1st defeat in 6 matches and just their 2nd of their last 9, but they remain 8 points behind the ladder leaders. A good run, at least by Super Rugby standards, of 3 home games in their last 5 will help. Failure to beat an undermanned opposition this past weekend doesn’t change their season much and recently they have looked their clinical best.

Why they will win it: For all the talk of the Sharks defeat, it was noticeable that some of their big name players, even dare we say the likes of Richie McCaw, Sam Whitelock and others played with uncustomary looseness. Most have now consigned the loss to to the Sharks to what Todd Blackadder suggests is an “anomaly”. It had better be, for another couple of losses will result in the highly competitive New Zealand Conference stopping the Crusaders run of final’s appearances. 2001 Was the last time they didn’t keep playing at the end of the regular season.

Highlanders, 5th overall, 34 Log points
(5 games remaining)

If one of the greater turn-arounds in the Deep South is to continue, it will most likely need to come at the expense of the Crusaders. 2 Of the Highlanders last 5 fixtures are against their closest geographic rivals, but 3 matches are away in their closing run – the team has lost 3 of 5 on the road – and a double in Australia will be the ultimate test.

Why they will win it: More than once or twice the Highlanders, with a history of strong starts under Jamie Joseph, have fallen at the final hurdle… but this team, while playing with the same abrasive frontal style we are used to, has guts aplenty and has been able to grind out victories, a priceless commodity for a contender to have. This hybrid of a team is as focused and as tactically aware as any Otago-based outfit before them. They will need to continue in this rich vein, to bring that elusive trophy down to Dunedin.

Waratahs, 4th overall, 34 Log points
(5 games remaining)

On the verge of their first Super Rugby Finals Series appearance in 3 years, the Waratahs are still keeping a lid on things, even though 7 victories has them poised to also break their all-time regular winning season record (10). A balanced team, at the top of both the attacking and defensive try charts, the fact that the star-studded side has won 3 of their last 4 has them promising potential that has been well talked about.

Why they will win it: So far the Waratahs looks to have quickly addressed what looked like a heavy reliance on Israel Folau, but the sparkling form of Kurtley Beale, Bernard Foley and one of the bigger packs in the competition, shows the team’s ability to play a more complete game. Their next fortnight will define them, wins in Melbourne or Waikato will set them up with 2 of their final 3 in Sydney. Like almost every team in Super Rugby though, the Waratahs form on the road form is questionable, they have won only 1 in 5 travelling.

Chiefs, 3rd overall, 35 Log points
(5 games remaining)

The defending champions are still in with a shot of 3 in a row, even if their mid-season stumble (winning just 1 of 6), has been slightly addressed with 2 straight bonus point wins in Hamilton. A feature of their previous titles has been the ability to dominate local rivals and with 4 derbies to come, 3 on the road, they will need to repeat this feat in 2014.

Why they will win it: The grit, mana and sheer fortitude of the team clearly still exists, as does the knowhow in winning what is once again proving to be one of the toughest rugby competitions in the business. The imminent return of Aaron Cruden cannot be underestimated. The defensive wall of the team and their attacking flair looks to have recovered after back-to-back defeats to fellow title contenders, the Crusaders and Brumbies. Lack of truly imposing form won’t be too alarming, they won their 1st championship after losing their final 2 regular season games.

Brumbies, 2nd overall, 35 Log points
(4 games remaining)

All season the Brumbies have looked the goods, but their form of late has wobbled wobbling, 2 reverses in their last 3, with a match in Pretoria to come, could result in last season’s runners-up being overtaken in perhaps the toughest Australian Conference ever seen. Yet this team has shown certain strategic upgrades to the well known ‘Jake White’ blueprint that has seen the ACT-based side look genuine championship material.

Why they will win it: Despite being the only side along with the Sharks in the top 7 with just 4 games remaining, 8 wins so far has them comfortably placed, although extending their 5 straight wins in Canberra will need to continue with 2 home matches against the Rebels and Force. If they are to overcome a tough domestic group, the Round 17 match in Sydney could be for top honours.

Cell C Sharks, 1st overall, 40 Log points
(4 games remaining)

Any suggestion that the Sharks might trip up in these late stages, being the last team from the Republic to undertake an overseas tour, have been put to bed. If becoming the 1st South African team to win in the antipodes isn’t enough, they then created history by becoming just the 17th winners to win away from home in Christchurch in Super Rugby history.

Why they will win it: Winning on the road is quite simply the toughest task in the competition and their 3 wins from 5 away games will be needed, with only 1 home fixture in their final 4 matches remaining. But with an uncompromising game plan, which is unapologetically geared towards winning and not free flowing rugby, Jake White’s team record so far has them on the verge of a guaranteed final’s action with a valuable 5-point buffer at the table’s summit.