When Heyneke Meyer’s second season as Springbok coach came to an end a few weeks ago, it represented the halfway point between World Cup cycles, with less than two years remaining until the kick-off of the next global showpiece event in September 2015.
After a year which saw the Boks end with a success rate for the season of more than 80 per cent, only the third time it had happened in the post-isolation era, Meyer should have been well pleased with the progress his team has made since the nervous beginnings against England at home in June 2012.
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As he said when he spoke with South African rugby writers at the team hotel in Paris the morning after the test against France, if you take away the two draws that the Boks were held to last year, the Boks would have managed close to an 80 per cent record in both seasons he was at the helm, and that would mean an 80 per cent record overall from his time in charge.
But while that would be significant given that it would place him only second to Kitch Christie, who retired undefeated after effectively little more than one year in charge at the end of 1995, there may be some who will sense potential danger in too much pre-occupation with win percentages.
It may be an indication that Meyer is suffering from a malaise that all Bok coaches fall victim at some or other stage, one that can perhaps best be described as “coaching for survival”.
If you look at South African rugby’s post-isolation history with coaches you can understand why, even though he is right up there in terms of win percentages, Meyer might still be carrying with him the fear for his job that he started his tenure with 23 months ago.
Jake White won the World Cup in 2007, but it was pretty evident that the administrators were pleased to see the back of him.
If that was not the case, they could have made a plan when he announced after the World Cup final that he might be willing to carry on.
Nick Mallett, who ended with a 71 per cent win record, was sacked for making an understandable mistake when he made comments about ticket prices to someone who did not identify herself as a journalist.
Mallett did even better than Meyer in his first two years in charge. When his team took the field against Wales in the so-called summer test in Cardiff in June 1999, his side had only lost once 22 starts.
And yet if you ask Mallett, he will tell you that he had started to feel the pressure being exerted right after his first test defeat to England in November of the previous year, one that came after a winning streak of 17 matches.
Although Meyer spoke at the start of the recent tour of Wales, Scotland and France of it being the start of the build-up to the 2015 World Cup, he does still at times give the impression that his most important goal is always just to make sure he has the win percentages that will make it possible for him to survive until then.
That may explain why he still hasn’t quite been as bold as some would wish him to be, although, to be fair, it is probably just not in Meyer’s DNA to throw someone like Pieter-Steph du Toit in at the deep end as the leader of the lineout when he is clearly still so green and inexperienced.
Meyer is just one of those who would prefer to blood the young around a core of experience, and he is not alone in being an advocate of that policy.
What is undeniable is that Meyer has delivered on the promise made at the close of the 2012 tour of the northern hemisphere.
Over coffee in the team hotel in Kensington after the win over England that ensured his first season in charge ended on a positive balance, Meyer vowed that his team would become more attacking once his style of rugby had become second nature to the players.
His team did that, and then some, with Meyer being helped this year by his team having a much easier build-up to the serious part of the season.
Italy, Scotland and Samoa represented a far less daunting prospect than his 2012 baptism against England after just a five day build-up to the series.
The extra work Meyer was able to put into the planning for the new season now that he is working with a management that is committed fully to him rather than also working for the Bulls has paid off, and his willingness to think outside of the box was showcased by the selection of players such as Willie le Roux.
Whereas the Boks struggled to score tries in his first year of the cycle, the confidence they took into the Castle Lager Rugby Championship saw them accumulate no less than four bonus points for scoring four tries or more.
With four wins from six starts in the Championship followed by the unbeaten end of year tour, the Boks were able to reach the halfway point between World Cups having shown measurable progress.
However, as the All Blacks, more than any other team, is the one that South Africans measure their team and coaches by, the defeat in the final match at Ellis Park was a setback. It means the Boks have lost all four of the games they have played against their main rivals since the World Cup.
There were mitigating circumstances, with French referee Romain Poite effectively decreeing with his abysmal officiating in the Eden Park test between the two teams that the Johannesburg game would not just be about the winner taking the trophy.
By picking up a full house of five log points against a Bok team that was down to 14 men for much of the match, the All Blacks set the Boks the task of having to win by a big score at Ellis Park.
It is to Meyer and the team’s credit that they resolved to chase the impossible dream in the final game. They could easily just have played for the win. But Meyer says he values silverware higher than win percentages, so his team committed itself to all-out attack.
It contributed to a magnificent spectacle that was lauded by critics as one of the finest matches ever seen, but the approach did play into All Black hands.
The Boks need to apply a more tactical approach to beat the All Blacks. They were unable to do it this year. So in a sense the jury is still out, although it is also hard to deny that the Kiwis have made measurable steps forward too since they won the last World Cup in Auckland in November 2011.
Aspects of their kicking game have improved out of sight, and it is why they give the appearance of moving forward as quickly as the Boks are doing.
Regardless of how you look at it, the Boks do need to beat the All Blacks, and soon, if they are to start moving into a place where they may reasonably be considered favourites for the World Cup title.
Certainly the end of year tour offered some encouragement in that it did suggest the Boks might be better equipped for the conditions that will be experienced at the World Cup than the All Blacks are.
You can’t argue though with a 100 per cent record from the year, which is what the All Blacks managed, and the Kiwi momentum has to be halted.
There are weak points, some of them identified by Meyer and others not, that need to be addressed to make it possible.
THE WEAK POINTS
Morne Steyn enjoyed a strong southern hemisphere season and certainly thumbed his nose at those critics who wrote him off after his annus horribilus in 2012.
His goal-kicking was for the most part exemplary, he made improvements to his attacking game, and in the bulk of the games his field kicking was good.
However, his defence was shown up badly at Ellis Park, and question marks over his potential vulnerability defensively are unlikely to go away. That will prove problematic going forward if it means that good teams like the All Blacks are able to target him.
Another area that was shown up at Ellis Park was the second row, or more specifically, Juandre Kruger.
The Bulls No 5 lock was brilliant when he came on as a replacement for Flip van der Merwe in the big win over Australia in Brisbane, but he too often he was found wanting the when the going gets really physical.
The All Blacks have also finished much stronger than the Boks in both the most recent matches played between the teams on the Highveld. Meyer has recognised their superiority when it comes to conditioning.
The mental strength of the All Blacks is also beyond peer. Their last-gasp try against Ireland to preserve their 100 per cent record was a measure of their self-belief. They also managed to score off the last move of the game against Argentina in La Plata to secure a crucial bonus point.
Earlier in the day the Boks were unable to do the same against Australia even though they had looked well on course to get four tries at an early stage of that Newlands game. It is one of the differences between the teams.
SOLUTIONS
It shouldn’t be forgotten that Morne Steyn had made way for young Free Stater Johan Goosen when the 2012 Rugby Championship season came to an end. Unfortunately, Goosen wasn’t able to kick on from a strong first start against Australia because of injury.
The hopefully temporary halt the injuries have brought to Goosen’s development are a crying shame, for there can be no denying the young player’s awesome potential to become that rare thing in a Bok flyhalf – namely a pivot who is strong in almost all aspects of flyhalf play and run, pass and tackle as well as he can kick. But if he is fit for the duration of next year there is still time for him to be reintroduced and given a chance to settle.
In any event, the Boks can’t approach the World Cup with just one flyhalf, and Patrick Lambie probably should have been offered more game time in the pre-season test matches than he was.
His showing in the win over Scotland on the end of year tour was positive. And then there is the precocious young Handre Pollard, who was part of the Baby Bok triumph at the 2012 World Cup while still a schoolboy. Watch him, for he has massive potential.
The No 5 lock situation has a less easy remedy, although young Sharks player Du Toit showed signs of growth at the end of the Currie Cup season and was instrumental in winning the final for his team. There is no denying that Du Toit packs enormous potential, but the question revolves around how quickly he is going to develop.
THE STRONG POINTS
The Boks made a strong step forward with their play at the breakdowns this year, and the return to the playing field of Schalk Burger in the Currie Cup was a reminder that South Africa has a pool of loose-forward resources that would be the envy of any other country.
Willem Alberts is now an established match-winner at blindside flank, and he has strong back-up in the form of Burger and Arno Botha, the latter making an impressive debut against Italy before being injured a week later against Scotland back in June.
In Bismarck du Plessis and Adriaan Strauss, Meyer has the choice of two hookers who would be good enough for any other international team. Both of them have built up a vast reservoir of experience.
Jannie du Plessis missed tackles in both matches against New Zealand but as long as he is the only tight forward with question marks over his defence that can be covered by the system.
He has become really good in his primary role, as has Beast Mtawarira, and you don’t get the impression the Bok scrum will be taking any steps backward any time soon.
Much will depend though on how quickly young Frans Malherbe, who played twice on the end of year tour, develops, and on how well Coenie Oosthuizen continues his adjustment to tighthead. Scrum coach Pieter de Villiers has done great work in his field of expertise this year.
BIG CONCERNS
1. The over 30s club
Most coaches are in agreement that for a team to stand a chance of World Cup success there has to be a nucleus of experienced players around whom any potential talented newcomers can be introduced. New Zealand has that, and South Africa has that.
The question though is how many is too many? The England team that won the World Cup in 2003 had the right mix, but perhaps the Wallabies of 1995 banked too much on the players who won the World Cup for them in 1991, and the same for the Boks of 2011.
In the backline in particular, the Boks are in danger of becoming an over-30s club, with Fourie du Preez, Morne Steyn, Jean de Villiers, Jaque Fourie, JP Pietersen and Bryan Habana all set to be into their fourth decade of life when 2015 rolls around. So a fine balancing act may be necessary.
Meyer’s policy with the older players needs to be understood. He has never looked at Bakkies Botha, for instance, as a potential starter in place of the immensely powerful and promising Eben Etzebeth, but he did have a strong impact on the group as a mentor on the end of season tour.
And when Etzebeth was helped from the field in the first half in Paris, the Boks were fortunate to have the fit and trim Botha ready to step into the breach.
Bringing Victor Matfield back from retirement might be a step too far, but at this point Meyer is just managing to get away with his strong reliance on players who did it for him or the Boks in the past.
What he has to be 100 per cent sure of though is that he will be ready to make the call when one of the older players goes over the hill, which can happen between now and the World Cup.
Jean de Villiers was brilliant in 2013, and Bryan Habana too, but both do rely strongly on their pace, and they are both reaching stages of their careers where it can just suddenly go. Meyer, and South Africa, should not want a repeat of the John Smit/Bismarck du Plessis debacle that blighted the Bok challenge at the last World Cup.
2. The overseas question
Meyer was lauded for bringing Fourie du Preez, Jaque Fourie and JP Pietersen back to play for the Boks from Japan, and he must be the envy of the coaches of the other two big southern hemisphere teams for being allowed by his national union to choose players based overseas.
But in the build-up to the match against Australia in Brisbane the potential pitfalls were drummed home when French based players were called on to play for their clubs at a time when the rest of the squad was in Australia preparing for the match. Again, as with the question about older players, what is the right balance?
- The year in a nutshell: Played 12, Won 10, Drawn 0, Lost 2 for a win percentage of 83%.
- Best performance: The big win over Australia in Brisbane.
- Worst performance: The narrow away win over Argentina in Mendoza.
- Second worst performance: Romain Poite in Auckland.
- Man of the year: Jean de Villiers.
- Surprise of the year: The emergence of Willie le Roux as a test quality fullback. That surprised even Heyneke Meyer, who did not have Le Roux in his sights six weeks before the international season started.
- Slumbering giants: Frans Steyn and Schalk Burger spent much of 2013 either out of rugby or out of form. Both of them could still have big roles to play going forward, and the fit again Steyn was a revelation in the Currie Cup final.
- Most improved player: Willie le Roux. Meyer managed to turn him into a fullback capable of playing a tactical game.
- Unsung hero: Flip van der Merwe made a great adjustment to life as a No 5 lock after not even playing there for the Bulls.
- Boks’ best player: Bismarck du Plessis is so far ahead of the rest of the world’s hookers it isn’t funny.
- Comeback of the year: Fourie du Preez.
- Disappointment of the year: Juandre Kruger played himself out of the Bok team against the All Blacks.
- Quote of the year: “If you’re going to yellow card that we might as well not be playing contact.” — Jean de Villiers to the referee in the Brisbane match.
Come on Bokke… make 2014 even better!
How’s about all wins, a clean sheet OR win all other games and at least 1 win and 1 loss against the All Blacks!
All in all I’d like to see little things improve as well, dicipline needs to be better, conditioning needs to be more spot-on, yet more emphasis on the breakdowns and ground ball battles, kick-off receipts need to drastically improve, further depth needs to be developed and tweaked in positions (tighthead prop, No 5 lock, openside flank, scrumhalf, flyhalf, fullback), skills development in the off-load in a tackle situation.
In general, certain individual players need to work on their defence and tackling (JJ Engelbrecht, Jannie du Plessis, Willie le Roux).
Certain players need to work on their kicking, both tactically and to posts (Pat Lambie).
But we’ve had a year we can be proud of and a year which can be built upon to go even higher!