At this stage of the season, things are starting to click into place on the Logs, with teams starting to know that they are out or left with a mathematical chance to make the play-offs of the competition.

Realistically there are only 9 teams still able to qualify for the 2012 Super Rugby play-off’s, but with the Hurricanes and Reds right on the edge and needing almost a miracle to reach the play-off’s.

In 2011, 57 overall competition Log points was the minimum requirement for a Top 6 qualification spot, with both The Sharks and Waratahs reaching 57 Log Points, and the Bulls just falling short of the mark.

The eventual Title holders of 2011, the Reds, topped the table with 66 Log points after their 16 matches.

A number of weeks ago I predicted that 57 to 59 Log points will be the cut-off margin this year… and I still stand by that.

To end 5th or 6th however, only givea a team an outside chance of advancing to the eventual title, with away games looming all the way to the bitter end, a difficult and nearly impossible scenario.

The sides all realise this and the race for the top 4 spots is the first goal, whereas earning the No 1 or No 2 spot means a much easier route to the final and an added rest week on the way to the possible title.

The current top four teams on the Combined Log have all taken their two bye-weekends of the season and have five matches to play, whereas the chasing pack still all have to take their 2nd bye-weekend break of the competition.

Super Rugby Remaining game schedule, per team:

STORMERS (49pts)

Beaten 2011 Super Rugby semi-finalists

Sharks (a), Bulls (a), Lions (h), Cheetahs (a), Rebels (h)

My Prediction: A realistic outcome for the Stormers is to win 4 from 5 remaining games… with a stumble against either the Sharks or Bulls in the next 2 weeks. Let’s say they earn 1 losing bonus point and manage 1 winning bonus point plus of course the 4 wins – that should see them end on around 67 Log Points.

CHIEFS (49)

Did not qualify last year, finishing tenth overall

Bulls (h), Blues (a), Highlanders (a), Crusaders (h), Hurricanes (a)

My Prediction: A realistic outcome for the Chiefs is to win 4 from 5 remaining games… with a stumble against either the Bulls and / or the Crusaders in the remaining games a likelyhood. Let’s say they earn winning bonus points in 2 of the wins as well as a losing bonus point for the 1 predicted loss – that should see them end on between 65 and 68 Log Points.

BRUMBIES (44)

Did not qualify last year, finishing 13th overall

Reds (h), Rebels (a), Force (a), Waratahs (a), Blues (h)

My Prediction: A realistic outcome for the Brumbies is to win 4 or possibly all 5 remaining games… with a stumble against the Reds this weekend the only viable possibility or likelyhood. Let’s say they earn winning bonus points in 3 of the wins – that should see them end on between 64 and 67 Log Points.

BULLS (47)

Did not qualify last year, finishing seventh overall

Chiefs (a), Stormers (h), Cheetahs (h), Sharks (a), Lions (h)

My Prediction: A realistic outcome for the Bulls is to win 3 from 5 remaining games… with stumbles against the Chiefs as well as either the Stormers and / or The Sharks in the remaining games a likelyhood. Let’s say they earn winning bonus points in 2 of the wins as well as a losing bonus point for the 2 predicted losses – that should see them end on around 63 Log Points.

CRUSADERS (42)

Beaten 2011 Super Rugby finalists

Bye, Highlanders (h), Hurricanes (h), Chiefs (a), Force (h)

My Prediction: A realistic outcome for the Crusaders is to win 3 from 4 remaining games… with a stumble against either the Highlanders or the Chiefs in the remaining games a likelyhood. Let’s say they earn winning bonus points in 2 of the wins as well as a losing bonus point for the 1 predicted loss – that should see them end on 62 Log Points.

SHARKS (41)

Beaten 2011 Super Rugby semi-finalists

Stormers (h), Lions (a), bye, Bulls (h), Cheetahs (h)

My Prediction: A realistic outcome for The Sharks is to win 3 from 4 remaining games… with a stumble against either the Stormers and / or the Bulls in the remaining games a likelyhood. Let’s say they earn winning bonus points in 2 of the wins as well as a losing bonus point for the 1 predicted loss – that should see them end on 57 to 60 Log Points.

HIGHLANDERS (39)

Did not qualify last year, finishing eighth overall

Blues (a), Crusaders (a), Chiefs (h), Reds (a), bye

My Prediction: A realistic outcome for the Highlanders is to win 1 or 2 from 4 remaining games… with stumbles against the Crusaders, Chiefs and Reds in the remaining games a likelyhood. Let’s say they earn winning bonus points in the game against the Blues as well as losing bonus points for the 2 of the 3 predicted losses – that should see them end on 50 to 54 Log Points and out of the play-off’s, for sure.

REDS (36)

2011 Super Rugby champions

Brumbies (a), bye, Rebels (a), Highlanders (h), Waratahs (h)

My Prediction: A realistic outcome for the Reds is to win 3 from 4 remaining games… with a stumble against the resurgent Brumbies in the remaining games a likelyhood. Let’s say they earn winning bonus points 2 of the the 3 wins as well as a losing bonus point for the 1 predicted loss – that should see them end on between 55 Log Points and out of the play-offs. They could surprise against the Brumbies and make the play-off’s though.

HURRICANES (35)

Did not qualify last year, finishing ninth overall

Rebels (h), Waratahs (a), Crusaders (a), bye, Chiefs (h)

My Prediction: A realistic outcome for the Chiefs is to win 2 from 4 remaining games… with stumbles against the Crusaders and Chiefs in the remaining games a likelyhood. Let’s say they earn a winning bonus points in 1 of the 2 wins as well as a losing bonus point for 1 of the 2 predicted losses – that should see them end on 49 Log Points and most definately out of the play-off’s.

Effectively it means the Highlanders and Hurricanes should not make the play-off’s, leaving 7 sides to fill 6 spots, and the order at the top very speculative at this stage.

Roll on Super Rugby, we’re all sitting up and taking notice!