This weekend sees some big rugby action up north. Firstly there is, as earlier reported on this site, the penultimate tournament of the 2011/2012 IRB Sevens competition in Glasgow. While on the ‘domestic’ front there will be the last round of the league stage of the RaboDirect Pro 12 and the Aviva Premiership.

Regarding the domestic competitions, there has been some debate as to which of the two leagues are the strongest and some years back I may have  said the English completion was stronger than the old Celtic league.

In subsequent years the Celtic league has been expanded to include two teams from Italy and perhaps the Pro12 is now stronger than the Premiership.  Arguments for this include the fact that the Pro12 is made up of more regional type teams from 4 different countries as well as the performance of Wales in recent times, the strength of the Irish teams and the fact that Scottish representation is limited to pooling their talent into two teams.

In addition, the semi finals of this years’ Heineken Cup had three teams from the Pro12 and none from the Premiership. This may have been down to which teams faced which in the group stage, but can hardly be seen as mere coincidence.

RaboDirect Pro 12

As is the custom for this being the last round of the league stage, all the games will be played at the same time, at 20:30 South African time on Saturday. The games listed below:

• Aironi v Ospreys
• Edinburgh v Treviso
• Glasgow v Connacht
• Munster v Ulster
• Newport-Gwent D’gons v Leinster
• Scarlets v Cardiff Blues

The main games of interest will generally be those involving the teams from 2^nd place towards the middle of the table as there is no relegation from this league and with a 10 point advantage Leinster are already guaranteed the top spot.

Bottom placed Italian team Aironi host 2^nd placed Welsh outfit Ospreys. The Ospreys should prove too strong and, with a victory, secure their place in the semi-finals.

Glasgow Warriors, currently in 4^th place, have a vital home fixture against the lowest placed Irish team Connacht. A draw is reported to be all Glasgow need to progress but they will want to start the match with a bang and go all out for the victory to make sure of this. Although Connacht is not the biggest name team around they have produced some good performances which have resulted in upsets, so this game is not a foregone conclusion.

In the Irish derby Munster, in 3^rd place, host 6^th placed Ulster.  The Ulster team should be quite confident following their away win over Munster in the Heineken Cup quarter finals. However, with only a really slim mathematical chance of making the Pro12 play offs one wonders if they will rather save their energies, and also try cotton wool some of their stars, for the Heineken Cup final.

Llanelli Scarlets, who are 5^th, will be at home to Cardiff Blues. The Scarlets can only hope that  Glasgow fail to secure at least one point and themselves go for a big bonus point win to reach the play- off spots. It won’t be a surprise to see Scarlets beat the Blues who have been rather disappointing this year, especially when one considers the host of top Welsh internationals in their team.

While the game in Edinburgh will have no bearing on the play-off spots it will be a significant one for the home fans. As reported earlier on this site, this will be Scottish great Chris Patterson’s final professional game and they will want to send him off him a good win over Treviso. It will also be the final game for Edinburgh for 8 other players, halfbacks Mike Blair and, Phil Godman,  hooker Andrew Kelly and fellow front rowers Kyle Traynor and Jack Gilding, flanker Alan MacDonald,   lock Esteban Lozada from Argentina and full-back Jim Thompson. The Italian team are actually above Edinburgh on the table so victory for the team from Murrayfield may not be that straight forward.

Taking a look into one’s crystal ball suggests the final top four standings in the table may be as follows:

1. Leinster
2. Ospreys
3. Munster
4. Glasgow

Aviva Premiership

Similarly all the games will be played at the same time with kick off for these being at 15:00 South African time on Saturday.  The games listed below:

• Leicester v Bath
• London Irish v Gloucester
• Northampton v Worcester
• Sale v Harlequins
• Saracens v Exeter
• Wasps v Newcastle

The top three teams Harlequins, Leicester and Saracens respectively have already ensured they progress to the semi-finals. There are only 3 points separating these teams though so the order in which they finish and ultimately who gets home ground advantage can still change.

Leicester host Bath and one would expect a win here for Leicester who have been steadily building and climbing the table in recent times. Bath on the other  hand should feel disappointed with their mid table position.

It will be a close affair for qualification between Northampton and Exeter who are in 4^th and 5^th place with only 1 point separating them on the log. Northampton have arguably the easier of the two fixtures at home against 10^th placed Worcester while Exeter are away to 3^rd placed Saracens who would love to push for 2^nd place and home ground advantage in the semi-final. Saracens should be favourites at home with a team packed full of South Africans as well as numerous England International players.  Exeter are a team on the up and are doing very well for a team that has not in the top flight for that long, but qualification for the play offs this year I’m afraid should just elude them.

The game between Sale and Harlequins is a hard one to call, and going by their relative positions on the log conventional wisdom would have Harlequins to win this one. However, am going to punt for Sale here, given home ground advantage on what should be an emotional day for them playing their final game at Edgeley Park.  Sale, who will be playing their rugby in the Salford City Stadium next season,  are also still 1 point away from qualification for next seasons Heineken Cup so they will have this as an added incentive to win.

At the bottom it could be a scrap for Premiership survival between Wasps and Gary Gold’s Newcastle. However, as Wasps have 4 points more than Newcastle it would take at least a bonus point win from Newcastle if they are to stand any chance of staying up.

This could possibly end up being far wrong but should the all the results go the way as predicted the old crystal ball says the top four may end up like this:

1. Leicester
2. Saracens
3. Harlequins
4. Northampton