The Wallabies will have to prove they are outstanding all-weather footballers as the anticipated wet and windy conditions during today’s quarter-final against the Springboks will play a major role in determining whether they stay at the World Cup or head home tomorrow.
The Wallabies are renowned dry day runners, but their record in the slush in New Zealand is poor, prompting concerns that if the miserable conditions continue in Wellington tonight, it will be their second World Cup campaign in a row to fall well short of the mark.
They want to avoid the embarrassment of following the 2007 Wallabies in departing at quarter-final time, and it won’t help them if there are swirling winds, which will affect their midfield and goal kicking, or if the weather is dreadful, limiting their ability to attack with panache.
The Wallabies finished their preparations in grim conditions yesterday, and even though overcast conditions are predicted today, any Wellingtonian will tell you: ”Expect five different types of weather in the same number of minutes.”
Wallabies captain James Horwill argues they are ready for anything. ”We trained yesterday – it was sunny. We trained the day before, it was wet and windy, and today it was again windy. We are prepared for whatever is coming,” he said.
The conditions are certain to force the Wallabies to be more conservative. Halfback Will Genia said: ”Kicking to the corners and playing field position is not boring rugby. It’s effective rugby. If you combine that with trusting what you do, and playing to your strengths – which is sometimes running the ball – it will ensure that you do well. It’s about finding that balance.”
Genia said losing to Ireland in the pool stage convinced them to be more judicious. ”We have to mix it up. We can play the attacking rugby we like but we have to be smarter with our decision-making. That involves putting pressure on the opposition by placing the ball in the corners, and playing a little more field position.”
The other crucial factors that will determine whether the Wallabies continue in this tournament are whether James O’Connor can match Morne Steyn in the goalkicking department, if openside flanker David Pocock can keep Heinrich Brussow and Schalk Burger at bay, and if Quade Cooper and Digby Ioane are given enough opportunities to make the telling break.
At World Cup finals time, kicking is important, and that is where the Springboks have the advantage.
Steyn is the best at the tournament, and on top of his reliable goalkicking, don’t be surprised if he pots over field goals at important times. The Springboks will attempt to keep the Wallabies in their half, wait for mistakes, and keep the three-point scores flowing.
O’Connor has been working hard with the Australian team’s kicking coach – Braam van Straaten – in the past 10 days, but he still has to prove himself as a reliable sharpshooter when under constant pressure.
Pocock’s return could not have come at a better time for the Wallabies. Pocock is their most valuable player, as shown by how the Australian forward play dropped off in the last month when he was sidelined with a lower back complaint.
Thankfully, he is back to confront one of the best back rows going around; the Springbok combination of Brussow, Burger and Pierre Spies could easily antagonise the Wallabies, as Ireland did when they succeeded in keeping the Australian attacking players on their feet in the tackle, and then won the resulting scrum feed.
The Wallabies will have the edge if Ioane is given space to provoke the opposition defence. Ioane is a match-breaker, and with Cooper having complete confidence in his abilities, and vice versa, they will hunt in pairs, waiting for the moment when the No.10 can put his astute winger through a defensive gap with a perfectly timed inside pass. As the Springboks are bound to kick often to the Wallabies, Australia should have ample chances to try some magic. How successful they are in taking those opportunities will decide whether the Wallabies are tomorrow triumphantly heading to Auckland for a semi-final encounter – or to Sydney in despair.