So, we are halfway through the Pool stages and already the tournament has been turned on its head. There are still a few important and path-changing matches left.
Pool A
New Zealand vs France on 24 September should be the Pool decider and although France have upset New Zealand in the past and are as unpredictable as the weather in Auckland, I for one can’t see this going any other way than a New Zealand win. Add to that the “motivation” France will have to lose the match and end up in a better side of the draw to battle their way to a final. New Zealand are also too proud a rugby nation to even consider throwing the match that will enable them the easier side of the draw.
Pool B
There are still two very important Pool fixtures for the aspiring quarter finalists. Argentina vs Scotland on the 25 September and England vs Scotland on the 1 October. Although England are leading the race it is not a foregone conclusion that they will win the Pool, but it does seem likely as Argentina has already been dispatched, and Scotland based on their previous performances just don’t seem to be on fire enough to take on the English. So for me the Pool decider is Scotland vs Argentina.
Pool C
Turned on it’s head by the Irish victory over Australia, one might think there isn’t much to play for in this Pool. Australia should comfortably dispatch their remaining opposition, but Ireland still have the minor hurdle of overcoming Italy, who has shown a strong forward pack and decent kicking game is something not to be taken lightly. In their match against Australia we must not forget that until halftime with a score of 6 all, Italy was still in the match.
Pool D
By all and sundry it will be assumed that this Pool has been sown up by South Africa and Wales. Between Ireland and Wales they had two chances of upsetting the applecart by winning their Pool matches against their more favoured Southern Hemispher opponents to allow them to benefit form a better draw in the knock-out rounds. If Wales won their match against South Africa they would have found themselves on the NZ side of the draw, so perhaps the loss was a little fortuitous for Wales. South Africa still has a hurt-intending Samoa team to dispatch to ensure finishing top of the Pool, and once again I do not see them throwing a match for a more favourable draw.
Knock out rounds
So, who are likely to have the most difficult run to make it to the final.
The supposedly easier draw, which in my opinion is disrespectful to the Six Nations countries, perhaps so called because they know each other very well, and have all beaten one another on a regular basis will be:
England vs France AND Wales vs Ireland
The Tri Nations route
South Africa vs Australia AND New Zealand vs Scotland or Argentina
In my humble opinion South Africa has the most physically demanding task ahead to win the Rugby World Cup, purely because having to see off a very physical Samoa team who will be hurting because of their heartbreaking loss to Wales, then onto a quarter final match vs the Wallabies, to a semi final vs the All Blacks and then if they make it that far, having to take on whichever Six Nations team has prevailed over their neighbours. And then of course they would need to be on form and have no injuries.
Australia probably has the second most physically demanding task ahead. They have to face the USA and Russia before the quarter finals where although neither team should challenge them on the score board, they will physically take it out of the already suffering Australian forward pack. From there on they still have to beat SA, NZ and then meet some rather physical forward packs in the final. for them injuries to their big players will see the end of any challenge they would muster.
Of the Tri-Nations teams, New Zealand will be sitting pretty. Yes, they still have to beat France in the pool, but from thereon in depending on who they face in the quarter finals there may be some physical battering by Argentina if they make it. But New Zealand should despatch either Scotland or Argentina with relevant ease. Their biggest challenge comes in which team they meet in the semi final.
The Northern Hemisphere teams do not have it much easier either, France, Ireland, England and Wales have all shown very physical packs during the world cup so far. But in my opinion most are equally matched.
So I still come to the conclusion that South Africa has a very tough challange ahead of going through Samoa, Australia, New Zealand and ultimately the winner of the Northern Hemispher section.
Who will it be?
“Bye-bye Bill, bye-bye happiness, hello depression, I think I’m gonna cry—eye”
“Goodbye, old Bill goodbye- eye”
And will the all Blacks do their own rendition of:
“ We’ve paid our dues”
Every four years
We’ve done our sentence
And kept on winning
And bad mistakes
We’ve made a few
We’ve had our share of choking in the end
But we’ve come through
We are the champions my friends
And we kept on fighting to the end
We are the champions
We are the champions
No time for choking
Cause we are the champions of the world”
Anyway just my opinion, but I will not lose hope, not if you have me drawn and quartered. It will probably hurt as much, but in the face of adversity I will keep the faith.