There is a bit of a public hysteria at the moment in South Africa after the first two Tri-Nations Tests this year, specifically because of the way the Springboks lost in both these games.
I don’t think any Springbok supporter will ever be happy with ‘throwing’ Test matches for the sake of a ‘larger/bigger’ objective. However, this is exactly what happened in 2007.
Pieter de Villiers is bargaining on his senior players to redo what they did in 2007 and he and his management team are obviously following the Jake White script in preparation for this year’s Rugby World Cup.
In essence the senior players were rested to be ready for the World Cup. Professor Tim Noakes reckons it is too little too late and that it will require a heroic effort from the senior players to regain the trophy, due to the general state of fatigue in the squad.
There are concerns also about the fact that these senior players have only achieved one style of playing and that the 2007 pattern of high kick and charge (keeping it tight while dictating with halfbacks) will not be enough, due to the way the game has evolved over the last years. See this article in the Cape Argus.
I have my concerns too but after studying the Rugby World Cup pools and looking at the Springbok’s probable opponents during the quarters and a semi, I think the 2007 style might just take them right to a semi-final, at least.
The Springboks are in Pool D and will play teams like Fiji, Samoa, Wales and Namibia. The hardest opposition, without a doubt, will be Wales and Samoa with Fiji having the ability to surprise with their razzle and dazzle style. The Springboks will need to keep it tight in all three those games (Wales, Samoa and Fiji). Dominate the lineouts and kick the ball into the stands so that they can’t use quick lineouts and run at the Bokke. It will be territory-driven games; pin them down in their own half (between the goal line and the 10-meter line) and box them in against the touch line. Against these opponents the 2007-style should be sufficient, I believe, and the Springboks should be able to top their World Cup pool or secure at the very least a second place with the 2007 style.
If the Springboks top their pool they’ll play Ireland in the quarters and the 2007 style has proved to be effective against them during last year’s End Of Year Tour. If the Springboks end second in Pool D, they will probably play Australia in the quarters. In a one-off Test I believe the senior Springboks can beat Australia (and possibly New Zealand) with the 2007 style and I’ll explain why a little later, but let me first complete my discussion on the possible route the Springboks will follow to a semi-final.
Scenario A after the Pool games: Springboks end 1st and then beat Ireland.
If the Springboks reach the semi’s after having beaten Ireland, they’ll most probably come up against New Zealand in a semi. It now becomes a one-off game where the winner goes to the final…. and anything is possible in such a match. More on how the Springboks could beat the All Blacks a little later.
Scenario B after the Pool games: Springboks end 2nd in the Pool and then play Australia.
If the Springboks play Australia in the quarters and win, they’ll face either England or France in a semi. The 2007 style has brought us a comprehensive victory against England during last year’s End Of Year Tour and I believe the Springboks should beat France with that type of game as well.
In essence, the only two teams that really play the expansive game with aptitude are the Australian Wallabies and New Zealand All Blacks. The rest, like England, Wales, Samoa and France are inherently “wannabe expansive” teams which can be shut down by a team who manage to dominate them at set piece and at the breakdowns. Expansive rugby is not England’s natural game and if you dominate them up front –like the Springboks did during last year’s End Of Year Tour- they fall into disarray if and when they try and play expansively, whilst on the back foot. Wales and Samoa like to play expansively but do not have the set piece strenght and structure at the breakdown to back it up. If you steal their lineout ball and deny them a right shoulder in the scrum and make it hard for them at the breakdowns they succumb to mediocrity. France has a reputation as a team that can play with flair but over the last 7 years they have adopted a very England-like style of playing. They don’t have the flyhalves, centres, wings and fullback they are reknowned for, who could lift the pace of the game in the wink of an eye and ignite snow into hot sizzling and blistering magic backline play. Flair and razzle-dazzle are not natural for the current Frenchies anymore.
Read here what Peter Bills has to say about English rugby.
The only two teams on the planet that play naturally with expansive flair are the Wallabies and All Blacks. I therefore believe that if the Springboks play their 2007, typical Springbok game – with conviction and precision all the other “wannabe expansive” teams will be very vulnerable against the Springboks, especially if they try and throw the ball around whilst having back foot ball. They key for the Springboks is to stay 100% focussed and not allow the game to open up, even for 1 second, against the likes of Wales, Samoa, and Fiji and to dominate England and France at the breakdowns and set pieces.
Whether the Springboks win their pool or end second in their pool, they’ll have to go through either the New Zealand All Blacks or Australian Wallabies to reach the final.
Considering the pressure, emotional psych-up and the high emphasis on defence which accompanies the World Cup quarter and semi-final matches it is almost a certainty that these matches will not be expansive games. It will most probably be tight, structured matches with low risk-taking game plans. This of course will suit the Springboks if they bring their A-game to the park.
So how to beat Australia and New Zealand?
The All Blacks has just provided us with a blue print on how to beat them and the Wallabies.
The All Blacks use an umbrella-style rush-up defensive system. They have developed that in order to counter the midfield “Pods”. There is usually some space on their wings but you can’t play lateral and try to exploit that space out wide all the time. That was the mistake the Wallabies made last weekend in the 3rd Tri-Nations match of the year; too much lateral running by Quade Cooper in an attempt to draw defenders and thus creating openings and/or to exploit the space out wide.
The Kiwi’s didn’t fall for Cooper’s lateral running and subsequently going out of line in the defensive lines, like the Springboks did; they just drifted with him and forced him to try and use long passes to get the ball wide. His lateral running closed down the spaces out wide and he then compounded the problem with long passes, which allowed the Kiwi’s to easily drift to cover the outside backs. Tight fast defence is key against the Wallabies. They had the majority of the ball and great territorial advantage but never looked like they could score against the All Blacks. You need to tackle them behind the advantage line and stay in line on defence, to force Cooper to only move laterally.
Against the All Blacks you need to stay direct and it is essential that you mix it up all the time in terms of using pods and angled runners close, then taking the ball wide via decoy runners. The All Black umbrella rush-up defenders in channels 1, 2 and 3 has the potential to leave openings in the All Black defensive line. If you rush-up you essentially go out of line, so this is a potential area of weakness the Springboks could study and target. To exploit those openings the Springboks need to shift the ball quickly from the contact points and then use angled runners coming through with speed. Once the balls are won in the lineouts or scrums, shift the contact point quickly by passing it to a player or pod standing flat (to get the rush-up defender committing to contact). Flip the ball then, before making contact, to a fast angled runner coming through the gap left by the rush-up defender. Variety with this approach and traditional general attack will be key because once you become predictable the All Blacks will start covering the holes.
The Springboks need to change their defensive pattern against the All Blacks. They’ve only ever won against the All Blacks when they have employed a rush-up defensive style which closes down the space and time of the halfbacks. Jimmy Cowan and Piri Weepu need to be put under extreme and constant pressure and need to be forced backwards in every tackle. Weepu, with his low center of gravity, has been the Springbok downfall on a number of occasions when the Springboks had actually played really well against the All Blacks. The Springboks need a solid pair of flankers that can take him back in the tackle and force him to the ground before he is able to offload. Take Weepu or Cowan or whoever plays halfback out of the game and the All Blacks become vulnerable. Alberts, Spies, Schalk Burger and Juan Smit can potentially dominate Weepu and Cowan.
The All Blacks latest style of attack is one of avoiding contact close to set pieces. They use decoy runners to get the ball wide and then utilize offloads in the tackles in the midfield and outside channels. They station props and locks out wide to run in on the offloads and in so doing force through the little guys out wide, specially when close to the goal line. When they ruck the ball up in channels 1 and 2 they do it with speed and commit multiple players to the breakdown to blow over with impact and then move the ball wide briskly by means of long passes.
The only way to counter this is by putting pressure on their set pieces and their halfbacks and more importantly by playing the game deep in their 22 meter area. Dominate them territorially, give them poor ball and stop their rhythm by forcing them back in the tackle.
The pressure of the situation and the fact that the All Blacks have a bogey on their back of ‘chocking’ in the World Cup, is the Springboks biggest ally in a semi-final or final against the All Blacks. Too maximize the benefit, the Springboks need to make sure they:
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Play the game in the All Blacks 22 meter area.
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They take an early lead and then keep the pressure on.
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Stay in contact with the kiwi’s on the scoreboard as the game progresses.
The enormity of the situation and the fear of losing will naturally inhibit the Kiwis from running with the ball in the semi-final or final. If the Springboks lead on the scoreboard or are in close contact (within 7 points) the All Blacks will naturally be very fearful of trying something outrageous . Imagine the outcry and extreme public rejection if a player like Israel Dagg tries something spectacular and it goes very wrong, leading to a match winning try against them in a semi-final. Ask Jeff Wilson what happened to him after the All Blacks muck-up in 1999.
If the Springboks can pin the All Blacks down in their own 22-area, tackle them behind the advantage line and take an early lead or stay within close score board contact, the All Blacks will be very, very careful and avoid opening the game up, therefore be too conservative and they will be very vulnerable. However if they get ahead by more than 15 points they will get more adventurous and daring and therefore more lethal.
The worst thing the Springboks can do is to try and run the ball expansively against the Wallabies and All Blacks in the World Cup. That is not to say the Springboks shouldn’t have starter moves or set moves aimed at punching holes in order to score tries or that they should fail to use their backline.
Pressure and structure at set piece and the breakdowns, as well as precision tactical kicking, coupled to aggressive defence behind the advantage line, could take the Springboks all the way, I believe.
Might be wishful thinking, on my part, but I still have hope that the Bokkies can do it.
McLook,
Kyk, ek stem saam met jou oor alles…. maar hoe vat mens die suksesvolle speelmetode saam in slegs 10 woorde?
… want ek is seker dat Snorrie en Tricky Dicky en Gary Glitter nie meer as 10 woorde sal kan onthou nie!
Hehehe
Goeie leesstof McLook en ek stem 100% saam met jou
@ grootblousmile:
Dit is waar, maar Rassie kan.
More, Manne, elke keer as ek die laaste paar dae hier op gekom het laasweek was hier niemand.!
Net ter informasie.
My Superbru Currie Cup is in sy m0&r in. Het nie een reg geraai die naweek nie.
3@ biltongbek:
Ek issie so seker of Rassie kan nie…
My Bru is ook poerdes merdes!
biltongbek wrote:
haha ek het ook 0 reg geraai
@ rugbybal:
@ grootblousmile:
Ek het o gesak van eerste na derde op die winter tests.
Die blerrie Iere is so confident hulle gaan ons klap in die kwart eind rondte, maar kan nie eers die Skotte wen nie.
Manne, ek neuk gou Midrand toe…. julle is op julle eie.
Gesels ‘n hond uit ‘n bos uit.
Enter Die Bloukuiberruimwandelaar in 5…4….3….2…
Nice article.
Sound logic as usual Mc Look, however where it all falls down for me is when we get outscrummed, beaten at the breakdown, and fail to hold onto our ball at critical times.
These 3 traits have been evident in our game for far too long.
Lastly, I fear that we will not be able to consistently play at the pace of the Aussies and All Blacks, while handling without fault at the same time.
I expect to see exactly this on Saturday against the Aussies.
I hope I am wrong!!!
Can’t fault Mc Look, on this spot on. Despite all the doom and gloom, I think the Boks are in with a great shot at beating the Ab’s and Wobblies. just hope our heavy artillery will remain injury free! If we have thelikes of Juan Smith, Brussow, Matfield, Bakkies, Fourie Dup, and Butch fit, it’s gamme on!
I had a great run on Superbru, and will look to push on now to 1st!! Got 2/4, but the two I gt right, I got it alsmost spot on!
@ Cheetah4eva:
Juan and Heinrich played very little rugby in months and both coming back from injury.
Fourie the same and way off his best when he last played.
Butch is injury prone and likely to tackle high.
We have unrealistic expectations from our best players, who are all short of game time and have only 2 games before the WC.
I don’t mean to be negative, but I think we are all bluffing ourselves.
McLook….good article.
I tend to focus on the positive and not the negative. The positive for me is that the Boks will be playing a pattern that they understand, whereas the Kiwi’s and Aussies will not be. Their love of the expansive game does not bode well for the world cup, where it will be tight and close fighting in the trenches. As I’ve said before, we have a very good chance to win this. Game time is an issue, but familiarity and time spent with the rest of the team is a great plus. I remember this being a huge concern amongst fans before last world cup, the team never used to get together long before the games before the world cup, then they went into enclave and the early games in the cup were where all the wrinkles were ironed out. It will be the same this time.
I am not that sure that we will win Ireland. In the last 4 games (all in Dublin though) they beaten us 3 out of the last 4 times. And the last time we were not that convincing.
Leinster won the Heinekin Cup (very, very good final) with one of the best comebacks I ever saw. Munster and Leinster played the final in the Magners luege.
Also, Snor has the ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with weird substitutions.
I think there will be a NH team in the final, as there were every year aside from 1995.
Mark my words…. the Bokke WILL FALL OUT (Lose) in the Semi-Final, against the All Blacks.
13tight head wrote:
I think you are correct, Mr Prop…
PS! Why do we see so little of you on R-T?
15@ LondonBul:
Hey, hello!
Jou freegin lanklaas hier gewaar
4man wrote:
Yes that also salvaged JW’s career stats, winning all his WC matches , think it was 7, gave him a win % above 60%, he also won the festive last test in 2007.
18@ GBS
Was op vakansie en is besig om te trek.
Plus die Bulle en die Bokke het my bek stil gehou die laaste ruk. Ek is seker een van hulle sal weer opstaan….
20@ LondonBul:
ModderEilandBul
Freegin laaaaaaang vakansie…. hehehe
Vrind, wat is jou opinie van die span wat die Bulle gekies het vir hierdie Vrydagaand teen die Pumas?
Kirchner op buitesenter langs Meisiekind…. Jano Vermaak op 9… en die jong ongetoetsde losskakel in die plek van Brommer…
Ek sit nou met vertwyfeling in my gemoed…. werk tot so ongeveer 23:00 vanaand… of staan 05:00 op en beginne werk.
MOET 2 nuwe rekenaars reg kry om more na Middelburg te neem… vol gelaai, geconfigure… reg vir aanskakel en werk…
21@ GBS
Ek sou Werner, Flip & Dean af gegee het. Ek dink hulle kan doen met ‘n week af na hulle toer oorsee.
Die voories is die beste wat ons kan kies maar hulle dominate nie. Dalk die naweek.
Brommer het my nie beindruk nie, so Marnitz moet wys wat jy kan doen. Ek sou ook Jano van die bench afgespeel het. Lyk my Pine is paniekerig.
Maar ek is positief oor die Bulle wat Heynicke is daar.
Een ou wat ek moerse laaik is Juandre. Hy het moer goed hierso gespeel en hy kon nou in die Engeland squad gewees het. Wys jou net sy hart is reg. Ek is baie moerig vir Frans dat jy hom nie ‘n game of 2 in die S15 gegee het nie.
23@ LondonBul:
ModderBul,
Ek sou ook taamlik paniekerig gewees het as ek Pine was en die Bulle het laaste gelê op die Currie Cup Log.
Ek wag natuurlik ook heel gespanne om te sien wat kan Louis Fouche doen… dis die jong losskakeltjie met die kanonpoot, wat op die bench is… en die seun is lekker groot en sterk ook.
Juandre is blerrie goed, maar speel tipies soos Matfield, nie ‘n enforcer nie maar wel lekker atleties en ‘n goeie lynstaanman. Wat hom aanbetref, moet jy darem onthou dat die 4 slotte voor hom in die tou vir Super Rugby die jaar, is ALMAL Springbokke. Kyk, hy sal homself nou kan vestig as die Bulle se Nr 1 slot op Nr 5, met Matfield, Bakkies en ou Pakslae wat nie volgende jaar meer beskikbaar is nie.
Wat Jano aanbetref, die man was speler van die eerste maand in die Currie Cup… en ou Dustbin het my nou werklik gladnie beeindruk nie. Tussen Dustbin en Brommer was daar net mooi geen rigting in die Bulle se agterlyn nie… boggerol.
GBS kom jy net tot Middelburg, nie deur nie?
25@ superBul:
Kom net tot by die Middel van Middelburg en nie ‘n duit verder nie… wanneer die 2 Comps klaar is, natuurlik…. en daarna jaaaaaaaaaaaag ek weer terug.
Hoop net nie ek trap weer ‘n ou finetjie raak soos paar weke gelede toe ek van daar af gekom het nie…. slaat die ou trappie op 184km/h nadat ek woes gebriek het…. hehehe
Ek groet… goeie nag, slaap sag…. gaan myself maar moreoggend moer vroeg uit die bed uit sleep.
Tjorts
I am out too, good night
@ grootblousmile:
Morning GBS.
I have been very busy in my business and not getting enough time for reaslly important stuff like RUGBY!!
Secondly I am very dissappointed in where Bok rugby finds itself right now and do not want to be a constant negative voice here.
I find little to be positive about and fear that in the next 2 months we are going to see the worst of our fears come true.
Simply put, you cannot sit on your arse for 4 years and expect to win the WC with a 4 year old team and game plan.
PDV has done exactly nothing to advance our rugby.
@ LondonBul:
The Irish fans are over confident, they believe they need to rock up and the match will be won.
Some facts to consider.
Ireland won the first of those three matches courtesy of a Paul Honis penalty when he told John Smit to go talk to his players, and O’Gara took a tap penalty to score a try.
The second match we were outplayed.
The last win they had, was once again at the end of a hard season vs the Lions and the Tri Nations, the guys up north always complain about the atrition of injuries facing their Lions players after the series, what about our Boks?
Also we beat them last year, with a poor performance.
@ tight head:
It is true nothing has changed in the last four years, but there is hope, finals rugby is attritional hard fought arm wrestles and few do that better than us. Besides our first challenge I am worried about is in the semi final vs the ALl Blacks.
If you look at their performances thus far, they don’t have a great lineout, which is crucial in finals rugby, they miss plenty tackles, once again crucial, and it is debatable whether they will go into a semi final thinking we just need to run the Boks off their feet.
As long as we do not keep kicking possession away, win our line outs, make sure we ruck over them, and not the other way around, we stand a chance, even if it is not 50/50
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