There is a bit of a public hysteria at the moment in South Africa after the first two Tri-Nations Tests this year, specifically because of the way the Springboks lost in both these games. 

I don’t think any Springbok supporter will ever be happy with ‘throwing’ Test matches for the sake of a ‘larger/bigger’ objective. However, this is exactly what happened in 2007. 

Pieter de Villiers is bargaining on his senior players to redo what they did in 2007 and he and his management team are obviously following the Jake White script in preparation for this year’s Rugby World Cup. 

In essence the senior players were rested to be ready for the World Cup. Professor Tim Noakes reckons it is too little too late and that it will require a heroic effort from the senior players to regain the trophy, due to the general state of fatigue in the squad. 

There are concerns also about the fact that these senior players have only achieved one style of playing and that the 2007 pattern of high kick and charge (keeping it tight while dictating with halfbacks) will not be enough, due to the way the game has evolved over the last years. See this article in the Cape Argus. 

I have my concerns too but after studying the Rugby World Cup pools and looking at the Springbok’s probable opponents during the quarters and a semi, I think the 2007 style might just take them right to a semi-final, at least. 

The Springboks are in Pool D and will play teams like Fiji, Samoa, Wales and Namibia. The hardest opposition, without a doubt, will be Wales and Samoa with Fiji having the ability to surprise with their razzle and dazzle style. The Springboks will need to keep it tight in all three those games (Wales, Samoa and Fiji). Dominate the lineouts and kick the ball into the stands so that they can’t use quick lineouts and run at the Bokke. It will be territory-driven games; pin them down in their own half (between the goal line and the 10-meter line) and box them in against the touch line. Against these opponents the 2007-style should be sufficient, I believe, and the Springboks should be able to top their World Cup pool or secure at the very least a second place with the 2007 style. 

If the Springboks top their pool they’ll play Ireland in the quarters and the 2007 style has proved to be effective against them during last year’s End Of Year Tour. If the Springboks end second in Pool D, they will probably play Australia in the quarters. In a one-off Test I believe the senior Springboks can beat Australia (and possibly New Zealand) with the 2007 style and I’ll explain why a little later, but let me first complete my discussion on the possible route the Springboks will follow to a semi-final. 

Scenario A after the Pool games: Springboks end 1st and then beat Ireland.  

If the Springboks reach the semi’s after having beaten Ireland, they’ll most probably come up against New Zealand in a semi. It now becomes a one-off game where the winner goes to the final….  and anything is possible in such a match. More on how the Springboks could beat the All Blacks a little later. 

Scenario B after the Pool games: Springboks end 2nd in the Pool and then play Australia.  

If the Springboks play Australia in the quarters and win, they’ll face either England or France in a semi. The 2007 style has brought us a comprehensive victory against England during last year’s End Of Year Tour and I believe the Springboks should beat France with that type of game as well.

In essence, the only two teams that really play the expansive game with aptitude are the Australian Wallabies and New Zealand All Blacks. The rest, like England, Wales, Samoa and France are inherently “wannabe expansive” teams which can be shut down by a team who manage to dominate them at set piece and at the breakdowns. Expansive rugby is not England’s natural game and if you dominate them up front –like the Springboks did during last year’s End Of Year Tour- they fall into disarray if and when they try and play expansively, whilst on the back foot. Wales and Samoa like to play expansively but do not have the set piece strenght and structure at the breakdown to back it up. If you steal their lineout ball and deny them a right shoulder in the scrum and make it hard for them at the breakdowns they succumb to mediocrity. France has a reputation as a team that can play with flair but over the last 7 years they have adopted a very England-like style of playing. They don’t have the flyhalves, centres, wings and fullback they are reknowned for, who could lift the pace of the game in the wink of an eye and ignite snow into hot sizzling and blistering magic backline play. Flair and razzle-dazzle are not natural for the current Frenchies anymore. 

Read here what Peter Bills has to say about English rugby. 

The only two teams on the planet that play naturally with expansive flair are the Wallabies and All Blacks. I therefore believe that if the Springboks play their 2007, typical Springbok game – with conviction and precision all the other “wannabe expansive” teams will be very vulnerable against the Springboks, especially if they try and throw the ball around whilst having back foot ball. They key for the Springboks is to stay 100% focussed and not allow the game to open up, even for 1 second, against the likes of Wales, Samoa, and Fiji and to dominate England and France at the breakdowns and set pieces.   

Whether the Springboks win their pool or end second in their pool, they’ll have to go through either the New Zealand All Blacks or Australian Wallabies to reach the final. 

Considering the pressure, emotional psych-up and the high emphasis on defence which accompanies the World Cup quarter and semi-final matches it is almost a certainty that these matches will not be expansive games. It will most probably be tight, structured matches with low risk-taking game plans. This of course will suit the Springboks if they bring their A-game to the park.

So how to beat Australia and New Zealand?

The All Blacks has just provided us with a blue print on how to beat them and the Wallabies. 

The All Blacks use an umbrella-style rush-up defensive system. They have developed that in order to counter the midfield “Pods”. There is usually some space on their wings but you can’t play lateral and try to exploit that space out wide all the time. That was the mistake the Wallabies made last weekend in the 3rd Tri-Nations match of the year; too much lateral running by Quade Cooper in an attempt to draw defenders and thus creating openings and/or to exploit the space out wide. 

The Kiwi’s didn’t fall for Cooper’s lateral running and subsequently going out of line in the defensive lines, like the Springboks did; they just drifted with him and forced him to try and use long passes to get the ball wide. His lateral running closed down the spaces out wide and he then compounded the problem with long passes, which allowed the Kiwi’s to easily drift to cover the outside backs. Tight fast defence is key against the Wallabies. They had the majority of the ball and great territorial advantage but never looked like they could score against the All Blacks. You need to tackle them behind the advantage line and stay in line on defence, to force Cooper to only move laterally. 

Against the All Blacks you need to stay direct and it is essential that you mix it up all the time in terms of using pods and angled runners close, then taking the ball wide via decoy runners. The All Black umbrella rush-up defenders in channels 1, 2 and 3 has the potential to leave openings in the All Black defensive line. If you rush-up you essentially go out of line, so this is a potential area of weakness the Springboks could study and target. To exploit those openings the Springboks need to shift the ball quickly from the contact points and then use angled runners coming through with speed. Once the balls are won in the lineouts or scrums, shift the contact point quickly by passing it to a player or pod standing flat (to get the rush-up defender committing to contact). Flip the ball then, before making contact, to a fast angled runner coming through the gap left by the rush-up defender. Variety with this approach and traditional general attack will be key because once you become predictable the All Blacks will start covering the holes. 

The Springboks need to change their defensive pattern against the All Blacks. They’ve only ever won against the All Blacks when they have employed a rush-up defensive style which closes down the space and time of the halfbacks. Jimmy Cowan and Piri Weepu need to be put under extreme and constant pressure and need to be forced backwards in every tackle. Weepu, with his low center of gravity, has been the Springbok downfall on a number of occasions when the Springboks had actually played really well against the All Blacks. The Springboks need a solid pair of flankers that can take him back in the tackle and force him to the ground before he is able to offload. Take Weepu or Cowan or whoever plays halfback out of the game and the All Blacks become vulnerable. Alberts, Spies, Schalk Burger and Juan Smit can potentially dominate Weepu and Cowan. 

The All Blacks latest style of attack is one of avoiding contact close to set pieces. They use decoy runners to get the ball wide and then utilize offloads in the tackles in the midfield and outside channels. They station props and locks out wide to run in on the offloads and in so doing force through the little guys out wide, specially when close to the goal line. When they ruck the ball up in channels 1 and 2 they do it with speed and commit multiple players to the breakdown to blow over with impact and then move the ball wide briskly by means of long passes.

The only way to counter this is by putting pressure on their set pieces and their halfbacks and more importantly by playing the game deep in their 22 meter area. Dominate them territorially, give them poor ball and stop their rhythm by forcing them back in the tackle.

The pressure of the situation and the fact that the All Blacks have a bogey on their back of ‘chocking’ in the World Cup, is the Springboks biggest ally in a semi-final or final against the All Blacks. Too maximize the benefit, the Springboks need to make sure they:

1. Play the game in the All Blacks 22 meter area.
2. They take an early lead and then keep the pressure on.
3. Stay in contact with the kiwi’s on the scoreboard as the game progresses. 

The enormity of the situation and the fear of losing will naturally inhibit the Kiwis from running with the ball in the semi-final or final. If the Springboks lead on the scoreboard or are in close contact (within 7 points) the All Blacks will naturally be very fearful of trying something outrageous . Imagine the outcry and extreme public rejection if a player like Israel Dagg tries something spectacular and it goes very wrong, leading to a match winning try against them in a semi-final. Ask Jeff Wilson what happened to him after the All Blacks muck-up in 1999. 

If the Springboks can pin the All Blacks down in their own 22-area, tackle them behind the advantage line and take an early lead or stay within close score board contact, the All Blacks will be very, very careful and avoid opening the game up, therefore be too conservative and they will be very vulnerable. However if they get ahead by more than 15 points they will get more adventurous and daring and therefore more lethal.

The worst thing the Springboks can do is to try and run the ball expansively against the Wallabies and All Blacks in the World Cup. That is not to say the Springboks shouldn’t have starter moves or set moves aimed at punching holes in order to score tries or that they should fail to use their backline. 

Pressure and structure at set piece and the breakdowns, as well as precision tactical kicking, coupled to aggressive defence behind the advantage line, could take the Springboks all the way, I believe.  

Might be wishful thinking, on my part, but I still have hope that the Bokkies can do it.