Speculation is rife… the Springbok senior players will be under-prepared, some say. Others say they have not rested enough. And then there are those that say these senior Springboks do not need to have played to be sharp as ever.
Let’s critically look at when last these senior Springboks played, and what their form was when they played.
The likely Springbok run-on side for Saturday as well as bench players should be the following, unless I read Peter de Villiers very wrong:
Front row: 1 Tendai (Beast) Mtawarira, 2 John Smit (C), 3 Jannie du Plessis
Locks: 4 Bakkies Botha, 5 Victor Matfield
Flankers: 6 Henrich Brussow, 7 Jean Deysel
No 8: 8 Danie Rossouw
Halfback Pairing: 9 Fourie du Preez, 10 Butch James
Centers: 12 Jean de Villiers, 13 Jaque Fourie
Wings: 11 Bryan Habana, 14 JP Pietersen
Fullback: 15 Frans Steyn
Replacements: 16 Bismarck du Plessis, 17 CJ van der Linde, 18 Gerhard Mostert, 19, Willem Alberts, 20 Francois Hougaard, 21 Morné Steyn, 22 Gio Aplon
Let’s discuss every position…
Front Row:
Neither the Beast, Jannie du Plessis or Bismarck du Plessis have seen game action since the “Quarter Final” match in New Zealand in Super Rugby 2011. In addition Gurthro Steenkamp has’nt seen action for months following breaking his arm early in 2011. John Smit has played in recent weeks but his form was that of a cart horse, to say the least.
This does not bode well for any cohesion in the scrums and set pieces and any combination of these players should struggle at least for the first 20 minutes in the Test, to gain some momentum.
Locks:
The Old Firm of Bakkies Botha and Victor Matfield back at lock, makes me want to shout “hoooooooooooooooohaaaaaaaaaaaa”!
But remember folks, they’ve been hunting, signing autographs, doing the “Blood Brothers” tour and sitting out of active game rugby since the last round of open play in Super Rugby 2011. Not one lineout ball has come their way under pressure since then, not one critical game decision has had to be made…
I believe this Old Firm will still be better in the scrums and specially the lineouts than what the Springboks have had avaiable in the last weeks and to my mind a well rested and match-unfit pairing of these stars won’t let the Springboks down, might just take them 10 minutes to get back into the swing of things.
Flankers:
Heinrich Brussow must be itching to get game time, in fact we saw just exactly how hungry he was for contact this past weekend in his 25 minute cameo appearance for the Free State Cheetahs against Western Province. But 25 minutes in how many months, against the likes of Pocock and Elsom and Higginbotham sounds severely undercooked to me. Does Heinrich have that unwaivering Big Match Temperament to immediately dominate these big dogs?
My money is on Heinrich, the man has special ability, and combined with the ruthlessness of Jean Deysel and either Danie Rossouw or Willem Alberts in the other two looseforward positions, I am positive that we’ll see better breakdown contention than in yonks!
No 8:
Danie Rossouw has been suffering from a tummy bug and Willem Alberts has been recovering from a back spasm, but these two dragons should be up for it. We know that Pierre Spies has been recovering from a groin injury and I’m banking on him not being in the starting lineup or on the bench, for this weekend at least.
Halfback pairing:
This is where age and experience probably meets old bones and rickety knees and shoulders…
Fourie du Preez has been our general, our thinker, our option taker par excellance, but one has to look at exactly how long it took “Mr Perfect” to fit back in the Bulls fold this year after injury and lay-off. It was clear that scrumhalf requires fresh game time to be as sharp as a razor. Same applies to his understudy, Francois Hougaard the nuggety utility back who also plies his trade North of the Jukskei. Do not expect miracles from Fourie du Preez!
Butch “Brainfart” James will be at pivot and the last time he played, he was carded & cited & banned, if I’m not mistaken… in Super Rugby 2011. This is a man who has not spent regular time with the Springboks or playing regularly in South African or in Southern Hemisphere conditions, but the signs were there before his ban that he still had a valuable contribution to make, if he could keep his head straight.
I am shuddering at the thought of him giving a card away on Saturday, or the week thereafter… or in the World Cup.
Centers:
Once again we have an Old Trusty Firm at work… Jean de Villiers and Jaque Fourie, arguably the world’s top center pairing when on form. But will they be on form or rusty like an old skedonk in Cape Town?
With Dick Muir’s negative influence and absolute lack of ability as backline coach, my money is on a rickety rust bucket for the first half an hour or so, till the adrenalin takes over and the two players forget what Dick has asked them to do.
Wings:
For two long seasons we have had to endure EVERY COACH trying to play Bryan Habana back into form, now this is compouded by a long lay-off. What can we expect from this Old Race Horse? Well, I can tell you, he will be hungry but he will also be too hungry and leave his defensive lines too early to shoot up, making it possible for the Wallaby thinkers like Genia and Cooper to put balls in behind him and past his flaying intercepting hands. Expect the brunt of the Australian attack to come towards his side of the field, where they had so much joy in 2010.
JP Pietersen was just coming back into sublime form, when he was told to rest as a senior Springbok. Will he take up where he left off, or will it take a while for him to find his feet again? This deceptive winger has his good days and his woeful days and your guess is as good as mine. That said, I would play no-one else in that position!
Fullback:
A Northern Hemisphere, French Club Rugby Inside Center…. has to be re-treaded into a fullback and that worries me no end. During the Springbok End of Year Tour in 2010 (or was it before then), we saw Frans Steyn play just ONE Test at fullback for the Springboks, and it was a disaster of epic proportions! Frans undoubtedly has the goods and the talent, but are these goods and talents in tune with Springbok needs AT THE MOMENT? My guess is no, it is’nt… and I dare Frans to prove me wrong!
Accordingly, I see a Springbok loss in Durban on the cards, hope I’m wrong!
In related News, the Springbok coaching staff has indicated that they will only name the Test squad for Saturday, to face the Wallabies in Durban, on THURSDAY! This delay in naming the side is due to the uncertainty regarding the fittness of Danie Rossouw & Willem Alberts.
Do I come accross as overly negative in my analysis in the Article?
How I wish they prove me wrong!
@ grootblousmile:
You come across as overly negative. If you did a matchup of player on player, we would see a different picture. The burglar at no 10 for the Ozzie’s will be sulking after being found out last Saturday, anybody with half a mind can unsettle him, that done then the rest of their play doesn’t flow. Dangermen Genia, Pocock and that no 11 (Ioni is it?). I don’t agree that Smit played badly in Australasia, he extended himself which was good. Depends on what the message to the team is….do we treat this as a training session or do we go flat out. You know my philosophy….the mental cost of a loss at home is too much weight to carry, the guys must go flat out. My only concern is Habana. FdP wasnt over his injury yet during Super Rugby, one could tell that from his pace….if the rest has had its effect he will be better. This is a tried and tested combination and all the team members know each other instinctively, the pace will pick up after 10 to 20 minutes I agree with that.
2@ 4man:
My problem is not so much the quality of the chosen Bokke, BUT RATHER the situation that the Wallabies have been together as a team, in game situations a couple of times now, even though they lost to the All Blacks.
My problem lies in the cohesion factor of senior Bokke who have not had game time together since last season and who will be fresh out of recent game sharpness.
Eddie Jones and Heyneke Meyer is correct, radically cut the space allowed to the dangerous Aussie runners… and fiercely contest the breakdowns. The battle will be won or lost principally on these 2 aspects of play.
Doing match-ups, player by player, is futile… that is not how the battle unfolds.
Gentlemen, our RWC starts saturday.
Think back to England last world cup, Brian Ashton did a real number on them, after the loss to SA the senior players sat down and devised their own plans.
Our senior players have won a RWC, by my count there should 15 of them in the squad, 6 of them have won 3 super rugby titles as well.
The team has oodles of experience, we also have a very strong leadership group.
Add to that the mentality of a South African who has to focus for the next 9 matches to retain their title, what more would we want.
Perhaps a more innovative coach, perhaps the confidence that all our players were in top form.
Well I believe that when these guys switch on against Wales, none of our concerns will matter, what will stop us is a better team on the day, and in world cups that doesn’t happen often
@ biltongbek:
sort of agree with you, but we dont need to win on Saturday. If we play a 75% game and lose it will be OK if we just step up to 85% the following week. We must then use the break between the last #n game and our first RWC game against Wales to get to 85% plus, that will be the type of momentum i am hoping for. Then we must rest almost all the big guns against Namibia.
All the other games accept the Namibian one must be played by our best team to get cohesian right.
I don’t think we can afford to lose these two home matches.
It is vital for our confidence
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