Although I have said many times that I do not like the new format of Super Rugby, be it due to the unevenness of not playing all the teams in the Competition and playing local derbies twice, it still does make for interesting reading going into the final two rounds of Competition.
I still don’t believe the format is fair or well thought out, for a number of reasons. Two of the Conferences are most definitely more competitive and tight than the Australian Conference, where the Reds have taken an insurmountable lead. Also the fact that the teams do not play all of the other nation’s teams, is nonsense.
Take a look at where the Conferences stand.
Australian Conference
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | B | PF | PA | PD | TF | TA | BPts | Pts |
| 1 | Reds | 14 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 386 | 277 | 109 | 41 | 28 | 6 | 58 |
| 2 | Waratahs | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 324 | 238 | 86 | 38 | 19 | 7 | 47 |
| 3 | Western Force | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 285 | 368 | -83 | 20 | 37 | 4 | 32 |
| 4 | Brumbies | 14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 275 | 379 | -104 | 26 | 35 | 6 | 28 |
| 5 | Melbourne Rebels | 14 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 240 | 511 | -271 | 26 | 67 | 3 | 23 |
New Zealand Conference
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | B | PF | PA | PD | TF | TA | BPts | Pts |
| 1 | Blues | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 356 | 296 | 60 | 38 | 30 | 9 | 55 |
| 2 | Crusaders | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 397 | 248 | 149 | 42 | 25 | 7 | 53 |
| 3 | Highlanders | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 273 | 277 | -4 | 28 | 26 | 5 | 45 |
| 4 | Hurricanes | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 301 | 364 | -63 | 30 | 38 | 9 | 39 |
| 5 | Chiefs | 14 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 303 | 311 | -8 | 30 | 27 | 6 | 38 |
South African Conference
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | B | PF | PA | PD | TF | TA | BPts | Pts |
| 1 | DHL Stormers | 14 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 340 | 204 | 136 | 28 | 13 | 5 | 57 |
| 2 | Sharks | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 351 | 286 | 65 | 36 | 23 | 7 | 51 |
| 3 | Vodacom Bulls | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 374 | 328 | 46 | 37 | 34 | 5 | 49 |
| 4 | Toyota Cheetahs | 15 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 401 | 393 | 8 | 40 | 45 | 11 | 35 |
| 5 | MTN Lions | 15 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 321 | 447 | -126 | 33 | 46 | 7 | 23 |
Combined Log
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | B | PF | PA | PD | TF | TA | BPts | Pts |
| 1 | Reds | 14 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 386 | 277 | 109 | 41 | 28 | 6 | 58 |
| 2 | DHL Stormers | 14 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 340 | 204 | 136 | 28 | 13 | 5 | 57 |
| 3 | Blues | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 356 | 296 | 60 | 38 | 30 | 9 | 55 |
| 4 | Crusaders | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 397 | 248 | 149 | 42 | 25 | 7 | 53 |
| 5 | Sharks | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 351 | 286 | 65 | 36 | 23 | 7 | 51 |
| 6 | Vodacom Bulls | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 374 | 328 | 46 | 37 | 34 | 5 | 49 |
| 7 | Waratahs | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 324 | 238 | 86 | 38 | 19 | 7 | 47 |
| 8 | Highlanders | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 273 | 277 | -4 | 28 | 26 | 5 | 45 |
| 9 | Hurricanes | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 301 | 364 | -63 | 30 | 38 | 9 | 39 |
| 10 | Chiefs | 14 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 303 | 311 | -8 | 30 | 27 | 6 | 38 |
| 11 | Toyota Cheetahs | 15 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 401 | 393 | 8 | 40 | 45 | 11 | 35 |
| 12 | Western Force | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 285 | 368 | -83 | 20 | 37 | 4 | 32 |
| 13 | Brumbies | 14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 275 | 379 | -104 | 26 | 35 | 6 | 28 |
| 14 | MTN Lions | 15 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 321 | 447 | -126 | 33 | 46 | 7 | 23 |
| 15 | Melbourne Rebels | 14 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 240 | 511 | -271 | 26 | 67 | 3 | 23 |
This is how I see the Final Log would pan out.
The Reds have to play the Western Force and Chiefs away from home, they should win both, but as seen this weekend local derbies do throw some surprises. Another 8 log points for them ending on 66 points.
The Stormers to play the Bulls at home and the Cheetahs away from home. The Bulls could win their match, but with the recent form shown by the Stormers and the goal of ending in the top two will motivate them enough to beat the Bulls and even though the Cheetahs are playing good rugby at the moment, I doubt whether they will be strong enough to beat the Stormers at home. Should be 8 log points for the Stormers ending them on 65 points.
The Crusaders play the Blues this weekend and even though it is away from home, they are not affected negatively traveling away, historically they are the best away performers in the Competition and should beat the Blues, thereafter they play the Hurricanes and should get at least 8 points for the last two matches. It will end them on 61 points.
Even though the Blues might lose to the Crusaders, they should be safe for a fourth spot on the log as their last match is against a Highlander team who is tailing off in form. It should end the Blues on 59 Log points.
The last two places is where it gets very interesting, currently the Sharks and Bulls are lying 5th and 6th respectively with the Waratahs in close 7th.
The problem for the Sharks and Bulls though is that they have to play each other, so someone is not going to get two wins. The Sharks also play the Lions away from home and the Bulls travel to Newlands. So in my humble opinion both these SA franchises should get one win each ending the Sharks on 55 points and the Bulls on 53 points.
The good news for the Waratahs therefor is that their last two matches should be easier. They host the Highlanders and the Brumbies in the last two rounds, and should win both. They should therefor end on 55 points, removing the Bulls from the equation.
Reds 66 points
Stormers 65 points
Crusaders 61 points
Blues 59 points
Waratahs 55 points
Sharks 55 points
Bonus point losses and 4 try bonus points is the only way the Bulls, Sharks and Waratahs can shake things up.
What is interesting from a South African perspective is that a few weeks ago, New Zealand looked to easily have three teams in the play offs, with Australia two and the Stormers the only candidates from SA.
After some upsets the Highlanders have fallen victim to some poor form and is effectively out, although mathematically they still have a chance. The Bulls will have to get every possible bonus point available or beat the Stormers to qualify.
What might also make interesting reading is how the 3 Countries each fared.
Overall here are the games played and wins for each country.
Australia played 70, won 29, drew 3, lost 38
New Zealand played 70, won 37, drew 3, lost30
SA played 72, won 37, lost 35.
Your thoughts?
In recent weeks the Competition has had some freaky results, none more so than in the last 2 weeks.
The Brumbies beating the Reds, the Chiefs beating the Blues, the Force beating the Highlanders (all this past weekend only).
So, whereas I agree that the Bulls have the biggest mountain to climb, all we need is 2 or 3 upsets from your predictions… and suddenly the Bulls could end as high as 3rd on the overall Log, Conference winner in SA…..
…. or 1 upset in the Highlanders beating the Waratahs… and the Bulls could remain in No 6 spot.
What I’m trying to say is that this Competition should still spring a few surprises for us!
The Bulls have it in their own hands, it’s not up to other results favouring them yet… and who would bet their house on them not winning 2 more games?
Goooooooooooooo Bullsssssssssssss!
PS! I also still do not like the new format, it’s patently unfair and the Competition is too long.
Thanks for the stats Biltong and the interesting article.
Let me disagree before I agree: I don’t believe that the proof of the overall format being fair or unfair is to be found in the competitiveness or lack therof of a particular conference.
Form is changeable and next year one of the other conferences could have a runaway leader. Also our two best sides (on 2010 form) the Bulls and Stormers (and even the surprisingly good Cheetahs this year) had a shot at the Reds and failed. The Reds also beat the Crusaders. Consequently, I don’t believe that we should deny the Reds their achievement and blame it on the luck of the draw or a system that favoured them or any other Ozzie side.
I agree that the season is too long, and also want a return to a system where everybody plays everybody else. However, how do you achieve that without extending an already overlong season?
2@ fender:
Limit Home Conference derbies to ONE between teams in stead of home and away… and add the teams of the other Conferences not played, do away with the Conference structure.. and have it like the Super 14 last year, except with 15 sides in stead of 14.
You will cut a number of games in the first place and do away with ANY, if any, inequality between Conferences.
We know that the Aussies will kick against it, it was them pushing for the Conference System, to create a Domestic Season there worth something.
Pity, the old format was good enough!
One can then also get away from rooting for Overseas sides against your own, because the Conference structure would be gone… a much healthier situation.
I found myself nearly supporting a few Aussie & NZ sides against the Sharks & Stormpoppies, totally against my nature to put SA sides first, always!
Dare I say that the Conference System has done absolutely NOTHING for Aussie rugby… with the Reds very high up and the other plonkers all middle to bottom dwellers…. not much of a Domestic contest if you ask me!
Guys, Im gonna be honest. I have a sneaky suspicion that the Bulls will win at Newlands. And I think its gonna come down to a few small/not so small yet/and very significant factors. Factors such as first round loss revenge, peaking at the right time of year for the Bulls, desperation to get into the play-offs, injuries to the Stormers, Bulls players gaining form, and most importantly , a final season for many senior players, and most importantly, that championship quality that ONLY comes when you have been champions recently.
I Think the Highlanders might just upset the Waratahs. The injury situation seems to be reversed, with the Landers gaining and the Tahs losing players. Also, the Tahs, even though they are playing at home, has had a rough Safari, and will have to travel MUCH further than the Landers for this games. The landers will know that they will probably lose against the Blues, and so this could be the last chance saloon for them. They HAVE to win to stay in it, and after a (over)long season, that might just be what carries the team through.
Take the following into consideration as well. When the Chiefs played the Bulls in the final, they got there due to a late season surge. Recently they have also beaten the number 2 and 3 team in the comp. They also beat the Highlanders, who is arguably a better team than them this year. It seems like the midseason injuries et al have worked itself out and they are playing really well. In their last 6 matches, they won 4, losing narrowly to the Crusaders in an away fixture and getting romped by the Bulls who on the day FINALLY found their gel. (they should beat the Canes, making it 5 in 7, against the 6 in 7 for the Reds)
Point is, DONT DISCOUNT A POSSIBLE CHIEFS VICTORY OVER THE REDS.
Lastly… the Brumbies will play the Rebels this weekend. They could well win, and for what its worth, take some much needed momentum in against the Tahs. Doubt there could be an upset there, but in Derbies, as we have seen this year, its never cut and dry till the end.
My upset predictions: Bulls to beat Stormers, Landers to beat the Tahs and Chiefs to beat Reds. (The Stormers could then still end 2nd, and the Bulls and Sharks could be 4th and 6th respectively (right?))
Sorry, I reread and saw a few mistakes in my post. Just ignore them, its late here.
@ grootblousmile:
I absolutely agree with your sentiment of reducing local derbies and adding the teams never played.
Also to have a conference system just to make rugby union more attractive and viable in australia should really not be influencing the Super 15, that is australia’s problem.
5@ Greenpoint-Gunner:
You could well be spot-on…
… but if we take Biltonge’s scenario, that one just seems more likely going on form for the season.
But that’s the thing, some are losing a bit of form and some teams like the Bulls are only heading towards their peak now….
Interesting 2 weeks await us!
@ grootblousmile:
Season form is definitely important. However I think that this season is too long, with too many injuries creeping in and too many teams, which means not enough depth in some (Aus) teams.
So, when all is said and done I think its very plausible to expect one or two upsets in the last couple of rounds. Just don’t expect the Lions to beat the Sharks.
I suppose we will have to wait and see.
Honestly, I am a bit torn between wanting to see three SA teams in the play-offs, or the Stormers at the top and only the Sharks to join them…
@ fender:
There is no denying that the Reds have proved their worth. But when looking at the physicality of home derbies.
If you were to take the New Zealand derbies, firstly their conference is rather competitive and the brutal physicalities of those games mean that a team such as the Crusaders who would be their historically best Franchise has 8 very tough local derbies to contend with.
Similarly the Bulls our historical best Franchise, you could argue that even the Lions is a tough hysical encounter, the Bulls only won their first encounter against the Lions by a few points.
Whereas the Reds does not compete against 4 physical brutal teams.
That being said, the fact that top teams do not play each other during some years of this proposed new structure does not make for a great format. The mere fact that the Crusaders does not even play the two bottom dwellers this years, the Lions and Rebels where as the Reds face the Rebels twice and also the Lions.
Even though one cannot say any game is easy, their route to qualifying is significantly easier than those of the Crusaders.
Hence this format makes no sense.
Every week the scenario changes, and every week there is shock results.
Point is, anything is still possible.
Waratahs would like to see Sharks and Bulls lose.
Sharks would like to see Bulls and Waratahs lose.
Bulls would like to see Sharks and Waratahs lose.
The chance of one this scenarios happening is actaually quite good. Someone is going to be happy come next week.
Is it lose or loose?
I’m confused now, this english thing can be very confusing. 😆
11 & 12 @ Snoek:
Hellooooooooooooo Stinkvis, laaanklaas jou gesien!
Lose = Verloor
Loose = Los (nie vas nie)
13@ grootblousmile:
A veritable warehouse of information.
12@ Snoek:
I’m English born, as in Mud Island, and even I find it confusing from time to time.
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