To mark the final World Cup-ometer, let’s take a look at the building blocks already laid down by the Tri Nations contenders over the regular rounds of the competition.

There will be further twists and turns over the coming weeks of finals football  – and the opportunity to see how the players cope with the unique pressure of  the knockout stages – but there has been ample evidence already presented to make a judgment of how the Wallabies, All Blacks and Springboks are shaping up.

For sake of convenience, key facets of play will be broken down and the nations ranked in order of their performances so far. Form and injuries will naturally play a role in the process, which is by its nature, is an inexact science and thoroughly open to debate. What is clear though is that picking a clear favourite at this stage is the occupation solely of either the brilliant or the mad – and neither condition applies.

As always, the only place to start any evaluation is up front.

The scrum:

With the continued growth of the fearsome Franks brothers, Ben and Owen, and the rebirth of Wyatt Crockett, the Crusaders not only have the best scrum of  2011, but possibly of the tournament’s existence. The Crusaders have also had the luxury of a rotational policy among their props, and a good run with injuries (surely not coincidental – ask the Tahs). Owen Franks, with his power-lifter’s training and love of the physical contest, has formed an immensely powerful tight-head combination with second-rower Brad Thorn. And with solidity assured on that side, it has allowed Ben Franks or Wyatt Crockett to relentlessly attack the opposition tight-head with all manner of tricks. Crockett’s massive improvement has alleviated any worries caused by the injury to the Blues’ Tony Woodcock, who is making a slow recovery from a foot injury.  Throw in the strong-scrummaging Andrew Hore – he should at least be fresh after a light campaign – and Keven Mealamu, and there is no doubt that the All Blacks will see the scrum not as a re-start, but a way to demolish the will of opposition packs.

The relative weakness of the scrum of Australia’s best side, the Reds, and some very messy set-piece contests in Australia derbies should not lead anyone to the conclusion that the Wallabies will be necessarily weak in this area.

Significantly, in the limited time that Benn Robinson, Tatafu Polota-Nau and Sekope Kepu spent on the field, they showed that they were an impressive combination. Yes, the Waratahs suffered at the hands of the Crusaders at Nelson  in week three, but only after Polota-Nau came off injured. The uncertainty of the Reds’ right-hand combination James Slipper and James Horwill against the Blues in round 13, especially against converted hooker Tom McCartney playing on  the loose-head, raises concerns about the quality of their work (although Will Genia has repeatedly worked wonders behind a beaten scrum) but Stephen Moore gives Robbie Deans more reason to feel happy. However, Ben Alexander’s ability to attract penalties is a reminder that some officials might continue to take a dim view of Australian props. The tight-head side remains the area that will be zeroed in on by our friends in the north and to the east.

But it is nothing compared to the the treatment dished out to the Sharks’ all-Springboks front row of John Smit, Bismarck du Plessis and Jannie du Plessis by the Crusaders at Twickenham in round six, which would have sent shockwaves  through the South African camp. They were not just beaten, but annihilated, repeatedly stood over by the Crusaders eight. And although their form picked up for the remainder of the tournament, this was not a year to fear scrummaging in the Republic. There is no Os du Randt filling the nightmares of props in 2011.  The problem seems particularly worrisome on the loose-head side, where the Bulls have palpably missed the injured Gurthro Steenkamp, while Beast Mtawarira oscillates between looking ferocious against weaker opposition and looking elsewhere against the hard men. It is an issue exacerbated by the apparent determination to keep playing Springboks captain Smit in his secondary position – as a prop – rather than as back-up hooker to du Plessis as his form deserves.

Verdict: New Zealand 1, Australia 2, South Africa 3

The lineout:

An area of traditional excellence for Australia and with no reason to doubt that it is about to end. Nathan Sharpe, in particular, has been superb and if you are looking for a reason the Force lost to the Reds two weeks ago, go straight to the three crucial lineout losses with the injured Sharpe looking on morosely with an iced-up ankle. His reading of the opposition befits a man who has seen it all – witness how he terrorised young Brumbies hooker Anthony Hegarty in week nine. Equally pleasing for Deans will be the steady growth of no-nonsense Reds youngster Rob Simmons, who was especially good against the Crusaders in week 15, and the comeback from injury of teammate James Horwill. Horwill, with 48 lineout takes, and Simmons, with 42, are both in the top 20 in the competition for that stat. Don’t be surprised to see Simmons claim a starter’s jersey. The accuracy of Polota-Nau’s throwing has improved, although it is a shame he won’t be subjected to the pressure of the finals, as unfavourable suspicions linger about his technique. In that regard though, Moore comes into his own, rarely missing his jumpers – a group that could also include the brutal Sitaleki Timani, or the superb lineout technician Dan Vickerman. Remember too that Scott Higginbotham and Rocky Elsom are go-to men while incumbent No.8 Ben McCalman has played extensively for the Force in the second row.

The remarkable return to form of Ali Williams – who we were happy to write off after some stuttering early-season performances – could be crucial in shoring up an area that other sides will no doubt target later this year. And they might need him. The reasons for New Zealand’s potential vulnerability are manyfold. It takes a number of components for a lineout to function smoothly, and if one or two are even slightly out the result can look like chaos. For all of their strong points elsewhere throwers Keven Mealamu and Andrew Hore have both been prone to the yips, while neither tight-head second-rower Thorn nor No 6 Jerome Kaino are noted lineout specialists. A lot could fall on the shoulders of Williams – clearly his country’s best aerial exponent – front of the line target and No.8 Kieran Read and the coaching panel to get innovative in this area to stop it becoming a problem. The issue could be somewhat alleviated by the inclusion of 196cm Adam Thomson, a wonderful leaper, in the 22. Regardless, it remains a vulnerability.

For opposing fans, there is little consolation in watching the gradual decline of Victor Matfield when it is clear that the mantle of world’s best second-rower has already been assumed by another South African. At 208cm, Andries Bekker enjoys a natural advantage over his opponents, but he has matured into something much more than an imposing statistic. In week five against the Bulls in Pretoria, there was a ‘passing of the baton’ moment when Matfield repeatedly refused to call lineout ball to either himself or henchman Bakkies Botha, due to the pressure – both physical and psychological – created by Bekker. It wasn’t the first time the Bulls lineout was to creak over the course of the season, and there is every chance that the Springboks will shoot themselves in the foot by omitting Bekker from the starting XV. There are also nagging doubts about the reliability of du Plessis’ arm under pressure. But overriding these quibbles is the sheer number of outstanding jumpers the Boks can choose from. Ignore for a second their big three and you still have the likes of Pierre Spies, Danie Rossouw, Schalk Burger and Juan Smit (if fit) as lineout options. The size, experience and variety in their lineout mean that there will be suffocated opponents in 2011, with only the Wallabies having the timber to be guaranteed of secure possession from their own throw. Watch them kick to the corner and squeeze teams until they crack.

Verdict: South Africa 1, Australia 2, New Zealand 3

The breakdown:

If this was simply a referendum on the most destructive openside so far, then the votes for David Pocock would push the Wallabies over the edge in terms of supremacy. Lately benefiting from an early-season knee injury, a fresh Pocock  has been outstanding in recent weeks, causing havoc at the breakdown and enjoying the greater latitude shown to defenders at the tackle area who don’t release and then contest possession. But the New Zealanders have enjoyed  superiority in this area for years for a good reason. From numbers 1 to 15, the technique and low body position of the Kiwis to drive opponents off the ball remains an advantage. Pocock is sublime, but will he get the breakdown support offered to  Richie McCaw by the likes of the bruising Kaino, Read, Franks brothers or even Ma’a Nonu? It is the ability of the Kiwis to hit the breakdown at multiple points and with vigour that has been their hallmark, and with expert pilferers such as Hore returning this year from injury they will be as strong as ever. But what they do with Matt Todd will tell you a lot about the All Blacks’ thinking. If he is omitted in favour of the multi-purpose Thomson and Liam Messam, it will sacrifice their ability to implement a ‘plan B’ with two scavengers in McCaw and Todd. Given the unsurpassed importance of turnover ball, that could be a risk. Graham Henry’s comments last week have been interpreted as indicating he is leaning towards both Messam and Thomson to back up McCaw. Don’t be surprised if it’s a red herring. He who wins the breakdown will win the Cup.

It is an argument that seems to have been accepted on this side of the Tasman. To watch the work of the Queensland backs, in particular, is to be advised that they have spent a considerable period slumming it among the forward coaches. The leg drive of Anthony Faingaa, Ben Tapuai and Digby Ioane over the ball has been impressive all year.

Backs must play their part too, especially if you want to play with width. There have also been huge gains from the likes of Ben Daley and the Reds’ second-rowers in this area. Factor in the mongrel attitude of Pocock, McCalman, Matt Hodgson, Beau Robinson and the sheer size of Moore and Polota-Nau and you have a highly competitive unit, which ever way Deans chooses to fashion it. The likes of Benn Robinson also have the ability to lock themselves over the ball,  apparently oblivious to the tonnage crashing into their shoulders.

But don’t forget McCaw. You’ll be dreaming to think the recovering All Blacks captain is sitting up in that coaches’ box doodling or tweeting. He’ll be studying the trends and law applications so that he can push them to the very limit whenever his long – but considered – rehabilitation is complete. He strayed too far to the illegitimate side in his appearances so far, but champions rarely make the same mistake twice.

The story of the Springboks at the breakdown so far this year can be told by the absence of their one true, world-class specialist – Heinrich Brussow. In his limited outings, he was close to the best on the field, as the Waratahs can attest in that infamous loss to the Cheetahs in Sydney. Otherwise it was a case  of utter physical commitment – and a lack of accuracy. Of their fit back-rowers, only the Stormers’ Francois Louw hinted that he might have the pilfering technique that would survive examination at the highest level, but even he owed that more to sheer bulk rather than anticipation or speed. Schalk Burger was in imperious form as the competition entered its final weeks, but more so as a ball runner and crushing defender than breakdown thief. Indeed it is telling that of their three top turnover merchants, two were front-rowers, with Coenie Oosthuizen leading the way on 15, Louw second on eight, and Bismarck du Plessis third on seven.  Without Brussow, the Springboks will have to rely on sheer weight and aggression to win clean possession and are a vastly reduced threat for teams carrying the ball into their defence. Brussow is likely to be fit for their campaign, but the vast amount of rugby he has missed over the past 18  months puts a question mark over his match fitness and durability.

Verdict: New Zealand 1,  Australia 2,  South Africa 3

(Article taken from Rugby Heaven AU)