Improbable, not impossible. This is the feeling amongst most South Africans prior to the Sharks massive qualifier match against the Crusaders this weekend.

There would have been little time to celebrate the remarkable victory over the Bulls on their home ground, Fortress Loftus, for the Sharks as this victory meant they would have to travel over 11 000km across the globe to take on the most successful team in Super Rugby history, the Crusaders, in what is effectively, a quarter-final, winner takes all and loser goes home match.

But it’s this victory at Loftus, the improbable or even impossible victory over the defending champions, that instilled a sense of belief amongst the Sharks players and supporters that the Crusaders can be beaten, even in New Zealand.

The last time these teams met in the league stages, we were treated to a Super Rugby first, and an amazing spectacle. The Crusaders walked away winners, but the Sharks took some valuable lessons from that match which will hopefully serve them well when they run out in Nelson on Saturday.

The Crusaders can be beaten, and although having the belief that this is possible is important, the result will come down to how the Sharks approach this match technically, and tactically.

One should not expect many changes to the team that beat the Bulls, apart from injuries of course, and nor should there be. The Frenchman at flyhalf and Lambie in the last line provided the Sharks with a dimension we have not seen in 2011 yet, and given the forwards are more than capable to hold their own against the Crusaders, it is quite easy to conclude that the margin between winning and losing this Saturday will be very small.

But just how should the Sharks approach this match?

When it comes to set pieces, the Crusaders are quite simply one of the best. For my money, they have the best scrum in the business and they are very clever at line-out time with the experienced Brad Thorn leading the way.

Apart from that, their outside backs from outside center to fullback has quite simply set the standard in 2011.

But there are areas to exploit.

First and foremost, percentage rugby will be key, but that goes without saying. In Tom Marshall, the Crusaders have a very inexperienced player in their last line of defense and clever tactical kicking into space (not necessarily out) with a good chasing game from Pietersen and Mvovo can put the Crusaders under pressure in their own half. For this the roles of McCleod (from the base), Michalak, Stefan and Lambie with the boot will be key.

The Crusaders, similar to the All Blacks, are also masters at ruck time, specifically counter rucking. It will therefore be key for the Sharks to ensure their runners do not get isolated and avoid one-on-one situations at the tackle meaning resisting the temptation to play too far away from their forwards. In fact, this is exactly where I believe the Crusaders can be tested on defense.

If you go through the team sheet and see the names of Ellis, Carter, Williams and Fruean, your first instincts might be to keep the play away from them as far as possible, but it will be in these channels, specifically on either side of Sonny Bill Williams that I will set up my strike runners.

Williams has been a revelation as a ball carrier this season, but it’s his inexperience in union as a defender I would target. All great defensive systems relies on patterns, pattern recognition, and communication. Much of this comes through repetition over a period of time and experience, something Williams does not have. They key for the Sharks will be to attack these channels and have either Williams, or defenders on either side of him come out of line or break the defensive line.

In a player like Michalak, the Sharks have a very experienced and very dangerous player who will not only draw defenders to him, but also provide the Sharks with the ability to put various strike runners in space through clever off-loads or even kicks. And in strike runners like Alberts, Kankowski, Bismarck, JP Pietersen, Mvovo and Lambie joining the line at pace, the Sharks have the ability to punish the Crusaders midfield if they make the smallest defensive error.

The idea however will be to box clever, not hard. Where before the Sharks only had 2 or 3 strike runners who they employed and would be marked, they can now call on 5 or 6 players to offer variations and options. Dummy or decoy runners, angled runs or cut backs and reverse passes should be the order of the day for the boys from Durban, all targeting the two channels around the Crusaders inside center.

The idea of sucking in defenders and having tacklers getting in each other’s way or marking the same attacker, centers around trying to compress play around your playmaker, and then explode out from there. The Sharks will need to try and compress play in the channels between Carter, Williams and Fruean, and then explode out from there and with Michalak as the playmaker, the have the perfect weapon.

Defending against the Crusaders is not easy at the best of times, and given the dimension Sonny Bill added to the team, you can find yourself 14 points down in a blink of an eye.

The danger man for the Sharks is obviously Sonny Bill, but as Brenden Venter pointed out a month or so back, Sonny Bill and his stupendous off-loads to players into space is as much dependent on those support runners as it is on Williams’ skills. But afford Williams time and space, and the Crusaders outside backs will kill you.

This will be the Sharks’ greatest challenge, and for this they would have to employ what is in my mind a bit of a hybrid-defensive system. Firstly you have to rush up from the sides (inside and outside) to cut off space and time for Carter and Williams specifically from the danger men out wide, in other words, the old umbrella or rush defense – forcing them to play back to the forwards (similar to what the Sharks did to Jean de Villiers in the Currie Cup final).

Whilst you have defenders rushing in from the sides on Carter and Williams, you need to have players or defenders get between them as blockers, cutting them off from potential support players. So on the one hand you will have your front-line defenders rushing their two play-makers, and on the other you will have defenders following any potential support players running off them and blocking those channels.

The key to this will be first time tackles, miss this, and you will be terribly exposed.

The result if executed correctly and effectively however, will be to force the Crusaders into a game they do not like to play, having to go to ground to secure possession (being cut off from support players and therefore quick ball), and having to play towards traffic (forwards) rather than the wider, more open outside channels.

As the Sharks showed with the Bulls, forcing a team into playing a game they do not enjoy, will always open the door for victory. This and simple basics with minimal unforced errors, could see the Sharks outsmart the much fancied Crusaders.

Will the Sharks win on Saturday? Well it’s not impossible, but it is highly improbable…