Peter de Villiers was quoted recently saying he will have to make some tough selection decisions in this Rugby World Cup year, the toughest of these, will be who wears the number 10 jersey.
Balance is such a key issue when it comes to the success of a rugby team. The challenge to mix the exceptional with the reliable is arguably one of the toughest challenges facing any international coach.
For Peter de Villiers, this problem has grown exponentially in 2011 given the majority of his (usually) reliable players, or go-to guys, are all off the pace at this stage.
In recent years the Stormers, Sharks and Bulls provided the bulk of the Springbok team, with the Bulls the biggest contributor of the lot. Players like Victor Matfield, Bakkies Botha, Pierre Spies, Fourie du Preez and Morne Steyn were automatic selections for the Springboks run-on XV in the last 2 years, which considering their current run of form as individuals in the struggling Bulls team has left De Villiers a very worried man. None more so, than the Springbok half-back pairing in Du Preez and Steyn.
A couple of weeks ago I mentioned that any champion team needs a dominant half-back combination who can direct play effectively. History will also show us that just about every team that has won titles in modern rugby, did so on the back of some genius in either one, or both of these crucial positions.
Make no mistake, a fit and firing Matfield, Bakkies and Spies are all massive assets to the Springbok team, but luckily we have also managed to develop great depth and experience in these positions – it is at numbers 9 and more specifically 10, that De Villiers cannot afford to miss a trick.
Recent articles suggested the 4 front-runners for the Bok number 10 jersey are Morne Steyn, Butch James, Peter Grant and Patrick Lambie. Rugby experts in the form of Springbok legend, Naas Botha, has also publicly raised his concerns regarding the flyhalf position and who he believes should be given the jumper.
Following all this, I decided it would be interesting to run a quick poll on the social network site Twitter, to see which of these 4 candidates the general public would prefer. The results were somewhat surprising. 50% of people agreed with Naas Botha that Peter Grant needed to slot in at flyhalf, just under 30% believed Butch James to be the man with around 16% believing Steyn is still the man. Patrick Lambie to my surprise, only got around 6% of the votes.
I have never read too much into polls to be honest, the problem you have is that the flavour of the week usually gets the most votes but as we all know, one bad game can turn a hero into a villain faster than Owen Nkumane can say; ‘Go-forward ball’.
So taking nothing away from Peter Grant who is the current flavour of the week, the results I believe are much closer than that.
What did interest me about the results however was the fact that Pat Lambie got more votes than James and Steyn, but as back-up flyhalf to the other three…
It reveals a bit of the psyche not only of the general public in South Africa, but the perception shared amongst rugby scribes, experts and even coaches.
For some reason, the exceptional scares us – this, together with the age factor, make people apprehensive to back certain players.
If you speak to any person in South Africa, from the general public to rugby experts, not one will deny the exceptional ability of Lambie, yet when it comes to backing such exceptional talent, every caution and excuse under the sun is highlighted.
But here is the problem, with Steyn, Grant and Butch you might have very able, and very reliable flyhalf’s, but each and every one of these players are limited in various aspects of flyhalf play. Each of them has one or two major strengths, but they also have some glaring weaknesses.
If we look beyond age and just the general play of each of these four individuals, there is no doubt who has the better all-round ability as a flyhalf. Better yet, if you take all the areas crucial for flyhalf play, and judge each of these individuals awarding them points on a scale of 1 to 5, I have little doubt who will end up on top.
With a Super 15 goal-kicking average of 86%, and being surrounded in a Springbok setup with the likely names of Jean de Villiers and Fourie du Preez, the risk of selecting Lambie is minimal.
I have never been a fan of discarding experience or experienced players, especially in a tournament like the World Cup where experience is absolutely crucial, but I also believe for us to win this Cup for a third time, we will need balance this with, and back, the exceptional, and young Patrick Lambie is exceptional.
Everyone is writing Morne off, wait a bit the WC starts on the 9th September, that is almost 5 months from now.
His dead eye kicking is a great asset. WCs are won by that.
@ superBul:
UNless he is rested, which won’t happen because the Bulls have no-one else, Morne’s form will not improve.
He has played non-stop since the B&I tour in 2009 (having played almost every game in that year’s S14 too) not getting one decent break, or being rotated.
Morne has been played into the ground, and it shows.
When will rest be at its best? Now or later, how long?
Defense is crucial in the WC and Steyn’s defense has not been up to scratch either. I don’t know if I would want Lambie in the WC if PdV is going to continue with the current game plan. The Bok gameplan doesn’t suit Lambie’s style of play at all. If you want to play kick&chase rugby then rather play Steyn.
If we want to play old fashioned 2007 rugby then we will stick to the conservative fly halves.
If we want to play 2011 rugby and have a chance of winning then we have to pick players who can play 2011 rugby.
Lambie is the best choice by a mile.
However our old fashioned conservative mentality will be the problem.
We also have to hope that FDP is firing at scrum half, because without him at top form we will struggle.
He is our most valuable player going into a WC.
@ tight head:
Correct and Lambie isn’t suited to 2007 rugby so don’t even bother to choose him then.
“If you speak to any person in South Africa, from the general public to rugby experts, not one will deny the exceptional ability of Lambie”
I never read this sentence properly, i am not convinced yet, so make it everyone in SA accept me.
“not one will deny the potential of Lambie” is how i would put it now. Lets see when the crunch times come. OK everyone is going to grab the excuse , remember he comes of a injury, fine i give him chance to the late part of the S15 campaign , when the pressure is really on the Sharks. The time they usually pick to implode. How will he look then.
Will he do better than Morne is doing now. If his team is good at the end his chance to impress will be much easier.
Bear in mind rate Morne NOW while the Bulls forwards are bad and the no 9 position is uncertain and unstable.Is he the reason why the Bulls cant win? I doubt.
If the Boks choose to play kick and chase rugby, I might just tune out for the world cup.
I don’t think we should write Morne’ off, but put him at full back, we need a good one and his kicking ability is still there for the team, Lambie hasn’t put a foot wrong so far (if its not kick and chase), lets see how he goes the rest of this season. He is the better playmaker. With Juan and Mossie at Centre and de Jongh as backup, we have the potential to run through them. We should bring Butch back for 1 game with the specific instruction to tackle Sonny Bill….no one has had a proper go yet. I predict he can’t take the punch, just like Quade Cooper, unsettle them and you have them.
Kiwi’s are very quick to moan about Saffas physicality, but I note the prop who hurt Flippie went and did exactly the same thing in the next game….is that clean play. As Henry Honibol used to say “tackle them stukkend then we’ll see how they play”.
One major strength we don’t use in our team is our speed and ability to create nothing from broken play….we should be working on this, then we will match the other teams in this aspect and our physicality will push us out the top. JMHO.
@ 4man:
Would you play Butch at 10 or 12?
My input at the moment would be:
Flyhalves: Lambie and Grant
Centers: Butch, JDV , JDJ and Fourie
Funny how Steyn was regarded as a running 10 when the Bulls had Liefling as their kicking 10.
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