Amateur Test selectors rejoice. In a World Cup year – with its truncated Tri Nations tournament – every Super weekend has an influence on a certain tournament in New Zealand later in the year. So discard the ‘one week at a time cliches’ pedalled by the coaches join RugbyHeaven as we track the form, injuries and talking points among the Super sides with one eye on firmly on World Cup fortunes.
Rugby Heaven
Australia
“We’ll try and get the right balance for the game that’s being played right now, not the game that was being played last year.”
Those were the words of a frustrated Ewen Mckenzie after the Reds’ drubbing on Saturday night, but Wallabies fans will be nervous about Robbie Deans arriving at a similar conclusion about his side later in the year.
The anxiety stems from how comprehensively Will Genia and Quade Cooper have been shut down in the first two weeks of Super Rugby and the fear that it’s the just the start of a story that ends badly in October.
Of course, it was always expected that the brilliant Reds pair wouldn’t be giving such leeway by the opposition this season after a year of merrymaking in 2010, but the first two weeks of Super Rugby hint that a fundamental, competition-wide shift back to the defence is under way.
Let’s look at the stats. In 2011 so far, there have been a total of 520 points scored in 13 games in the first two rounds, with 50 tries. In 2010, that total stood at a massive 817 points in 14 games, with 74 tries. Notwithstanding the cancelled Crusaders v Hurricanes clash would have boosted this year’s total, the discrepancy is significant – 297 points and 24 tries in two weeks.
The change is due to a number of factors that were always likely in a World Cup year.
First, defences are bigger, fitter and stronger.
Second, the breakdown has become contestable again. There was a virtual concession of this area, by both players and refs, to the attacking team in 2010 and turnovers became a novelty.
Third, the ability of players to tackle, release, regather their feet and contest the ball and still satisfy the officials has taken a quantum leap, and it’s not just the loose forwards. Pat McCabe’s second-half masterclass of this skill on a rampaging Cooper Vuna would have made David Pocock proud.
Transfer this to the Test arena, particularly the second factor, and no one has more to lose than the Wallabies, whose thrilling play last year was built on avoiding the sort of in-the-trenches combat that led to Marseilles heartbreak in 2007 and was so beautifully in tune with last year’s interpretations. Quick ball to quick men.
Of course, this is nothing that Deans and his team wouldn’t have already started planning for and the emergence of some hard-edged, Vickerman-style grunt [Dan is still to return] in that Waratahs pack must be a comforting sight.
The two Australian derbies over the weekend were also a cause for satisfaction. Both were notable for their intensity, and while the image of McCabe repeatedly accelerating into contact might not be so great for his mother, it was a heartwarming sight for Wallabies followers all too keenly aware of their back line’s lack of power.
Joy too at the latest return of Rob Horne, who provided one of the highlights of the weekend with his midfield steel. Challenges, then, for the Wallabies, but not a lack of options to get around them. We’re just glad we’re not the coach.
The injuries: James Horwill’s injury curse hit again, Phil Waugh is either Lazarus or crazy, Tatafu Polota-Nau was battered and might need some forcible cotton wool treatment, and there were reports that Rocky Elsom might be out until May. Oh and Peter
Hynes’ and Rod Davies’ immediate future is uncertain. It’ll be that sort of year.
The wildcard: If bruising Brumbies No.8 Ita Vaea keeps playing like this he has World Cup bolter written all over him.
New Zealand
The abiding image of the admirable Highlanders’ win on Friday was the sight of assorted Chiefs being blasted out of the breakdown by the hard men of the southerners’ tight five, with their workaholic back row in close attendance.
New Zealanders have been waiting for years for Higlanders loosehead and now captain Jamie Mackintosh to be a meaningful contributor at national level, but concerns over his scrummaging seems to have stopped him from adding to his solitary cap.
During that appearance, in Edinburgh in 2008, the 193cm Mackintosh had a tough time against the squat Scottish tight-head Euan Murray and the All Blacks door has been closed ever since. The drums will start beating again this year for a recall, and it is clear that he is exceptionally well prepared for a tilt at Graham Henry’s squad, especially should injury befall Tony Woodcock.
During his post-match interview Mackintosh intriguingly mentioned that the Highlanders had been inspired by the All Blacks’ up-tempo approach last year and had trained accordingly in the pre-season under the eye of hard nut coach Jamie Joseph. Nowhere was their superior conditioning more evident than in the ubiquitous Adam Thomson, who is on track to pull off a great resurrection or be one of the unluckiest to miss on on the Cup.
Thomson was jettisoned from Test calculations last year on the grounds his breakdown work was an invitation to penalise under the ‘new’ interpretations, but the pendulum might be swinging back in his favour. And not only did he pilfer the ball at the breakdown, but his support play gave him a clear points decision over All Blacks rival Liam Messam.
But while one door was being nudged ajar by Thomson, one wonders others will remain shut to Ali Williams and Joe Rokocoko.
Both looked a shadow of their former greatness as the Blues laboured to a loss in the Durban humidity and while they have plenty of time to build in to the season, the decisive presence of young Sharks five-eighth Patrick Lambie in the defeat was a rather cruel reminder than time waits for no one.
Sitiveni Sivavatu is another of that vintage that must prove that he hasn’t been usurped by younger talents such as Hosea Gear, but the All Blacks’ decision not to replace him on their end-of-season speaks volumes about the regard he is held in. The big Chiefs winger clearly needs more rugby to sharpen him up, but there were glimpses of the old power against the Highlanders to suggest New Zealand might yet have another weapon to an already imposing arsenal.
The injuries: Battered bodies all round, but virtually unscathed compared to their Tri Nations mates.
The wildcard: Youthful over-exuberance contributed to Tawera Kerr-Barlow’s yellow card, but the young Waikato No.9’s sniping runs and bullet pass mark him down as a future All Black.
South Africa
The news of blindside Juan Smith’s serious Achilles injury came through during the call on the Sharks v Blues game, while two potential beneficiaries of his terrible fortune, Ryan Kankowski and Willem Alberts, were busily staking their respective claims, probably ignorant of the information that had just filtered through – the Cup had (most likely) lost its first big name.
Smith’s absence would be a significant blow to the Springboks, not least for the balance and lineout nous he adds to their back row. He missed the Springboks’ three away games in last year’s Tri Nations: they were comprehensively beaten twice in New Zealand and once in Australia. Kankowski and the Stormers’ Francois Louw wore his No.7 jersey. They were anonymous. Little wonder then there was much teeth-gnashing in the Republic over the weekend.
But it was the reappearance of another Cheetah on Friday, in a match that attracted much less fanfare, that could be equally as significant for the Cup holders’ hopes of retaining ‘Bill’.
Heinrich Brussow is back.
At least he’s back on the paddock, playing for Free State in the opening round of the Vodacom Cup. Whether he’s back as the same player who terrorised the Wallabies and All Blacks in 2009 is yet to be seen, but even the thought of the superb forager playing again following a year out with a knee injury can take the sting off Smith’s loss for South African fans. The Boks back row hasn’t been the same weapon in Brussow’s absence, with the likes of David Pocock in particular enjoying a field day while Brussow rehabbed. A nation will be watching as Brussow steps up his comeback in the next few weeks.
And there was other promising news in the performances of the South African franchises.
The Sharks took a step up from last week’s kickathon against the Cheetahs, and the old adage about ‘making your own luck’ can easily be applied to precocious five-eighth’s Patrick Lambie’s opportunistic try. Test skipper John Smit made a return to the field. He didn’t do much but they seemed reassured to have him around. Kankowski ran beautifully and big Alberts charged the ball up in that straightforward way that so excites the red-blooded South African male.
But it was the Stormers v Lions game that got the adrenalin pumping and convinced RugbyHeaven of the depth in South Africa following an underwhelming first round. This was classic South African domestic fare – huge ball carries and massive defence, bodies piling into each other with scant regard for personal safety. And we sense a bit of last year’s Reds in this year’s Lions. The ebullience in attack, the audacity of youth. You mightn’t have heard much of Elton Jantjies at No.10 and Jaco Taute at No.15 yet, but the youngsters are adding something to South African rugby and the Lions’ breakthrough win can’t be far away.
The injuries: The news about Juan Smith would have made Schalk Burger’s withdrawal at half-time even more worrisome, but it doesn’t look serious. However, the introduction of more derbies in a World Cup year is going to increase the sick list.
The wildcard: What is it about cherub-faced No.10s in South African at the minute? The Stormers’ Gary van Aswegen looks rather incongruous among his gnarled teammates in the pack, but the 20-year-old looks like a classic navigator with an educated boot.