Analysis of the new Super Rugby format shows that the new format could favour Australia as they have two of the newest Super rugby teams in the Rebels and the Force.

The new Super Rugby format has the 15 teams split into conferences which are geographically based. In short, the teams have been split into three pools – one for each country.

The winner of each conference automatically progresses through to the finals which makes winning your conference vital. Former Bulls coach Heyneke Meyer has suggested that teams could rest their players against teams outside of their conference to ensure that they can focus on winning their conference.

The new six team play off system also rewards teams who win the most matches as the two teams that finish with the highest points overall get a bye in the first week of finals while the other four teams battle it out for the right to face the top two teams.

If a conference has a weak team, it will improve the chances of it’s rival conference teams. Australia have a brand new Super Rugby team the Melbourne Rebels and they have the Force who were formed for the last expansion of Super Rugby so on paper the Australian conference has the weakest teams.

In contrast the New Zealand conference looks on paper to be the strongest. The five New Zealand teams have been traditionally the strongest as they have won 10 of the 15 Super Rugby tournaments. New Zealand teams have been runners-up on six occasions and have never finished last.

The new format includes more home derby matches between the teams in the same conference as the teams play the other teams within their own conference on a home and away basis which cuts down the travel but increases the physicality of the tournament as domestic clashes are usually more physical than they are free flowing.

As the teams in New Zealand’s conference look to be the strongest as a group the fact that they play each other will disadvantage them compared to the teams in the other pools.

The Crusaders, for example, are unbeaten at home by any touring side in the past five seasons (24 wins, one draw) but the stats show that they have lost three of their 12 games against New Zealand sides.

The Crusaders overall record shows that they lost 28 per cent of games against Australian and South African opposition but 36 per cent against New Zealand sides.

At the other end of the conference are the Highlanders who are widely acknowledged as the weakest New Zealand team and they have won 40 per cent of their games against Australian and South African sides in the past five years but just 15 per cent against their New Zealand counterparts.

In the South African pool the Cheetahs and Lions have not finished in the top 10 in nearly 10 years and there is the potential addition – possibly at the expense of the Lions or Cheetahs – of the Southern Kings from 2013 and they can be expected to start slowly.

In the Australian pool the new Melbourne Rebels look strong on paper but few would be surprised if they struggled in their first year and finished near the bottom of the table.

As mentioned earlier the new Super Rugby format has a six team play off. The conference winners progress to the plays offs and then the next best three (4,5 and 6) teams on the overall table go through to the play offs.

If you have three or four teams in a conference that are significantly stronger than the others then the stronger teams should find it easier to win matches and accumulate points on the table.

If for example every Australian team beats the Melbourne Rebels in all of their matches then the likelihood of an Australian team taking one of the 4th, 5th or 6th place is much greater compared to the New Zealand teams scraping wins off each other.

The Cheetahs have traditionally struggled in Super Rugby but their coach Naka Drotske believes that the new format will suit them. Teams will now play 12 of their 16 games in their own country which means and end to the extended tours for the South Africans and the Cheetahs play much better at home. In fact they have not won a match in Australia and New Zealand.

While the Cheetahs have struggled against New Zealand and Australian teams they regularly beat the South African teams. For the Cheetahs the new Super Rugby format is much more like the Currie Cup and last year they finished ahead of the Bulls and one point behind Western Province (the Stormers).

Blues coach Pat Lam is still getting his head around the permutations of the new format but he is a fan of the new format and he does not think that playing the New Zealand teams more will disadvantage the Blues.

Lam says that he likes the idea of playing more games and says anything new is exciting.

“Initially you think they are harder games but when you look at the South African derbies, it’s the same for them.”

“The Cheetahs have struggled to win away from home but they get up and knock the Bulls and Stormers over,” he told the NZHerald.

“From a distance, it looks like playing the Cheetahs and Lions are easy games but in the South African derbies, they go hard out.”

“It’s the same in Australia. I think it all balances itself out because the derbies are true derbies.

“It’s a tough competition and on any given day, a team can step up and win.”

Potentially of greater importance than the format changes is the effect of injuries. Teams will now play more matches as the tournament is a month longer.

Former All Black Richard Loe said”Injuries make a big difference. If you get a horror run of injuries, it can knock you over. It’s often said you’re only as good as your replacements and that’s where the South African and Australian teams have struggled.

“If you lose key personnel and don’t have anyone to back them up, you won’t win.”

How the new Super Rugby format works

– There are three conferences (New Zealand, Australia, South Africa) and each side will play teams in their conference home and away (eight games).

– They also play four of the five teams from the other two conferences either home or away (another eight games). This has been worked out on an alphabetical basis.

– The top team from each conference automatically qualifies for the playoffs. They are joined by the three teams who accumulate the next highest points, regardless of country. It guarantees a finalist from each of the three countries.

– The top two qualifiers have a bye in the first week of the playoffs. The other four teams play (3 vs 6, 4 vs 5) to find the other two semifinalists.