If history is anything to go by, the South African challenge for the new Super 15 trophy will be a 3-horse race.
‘Tell me something I don’t know,’ I hear you say, but upon looking at the new format, I realised that South African results achieved in South Africa will become hugely important in this year’s competition.
By now I guess we all have a basic understanding of the format of the competition – if not, let me give you a quick overview.
In total all teams will play 16 games in the round robin stages, from a South African perspective, 12 of those 16 games will be played in South Africa. Of those 12, 8 will be played at each franchises home ground.
For example, the Sharks will play 12 games within South African borders this year. Eight (8) of those games will be played in Durban (each SA franchises once and 4 games against NZ/OZ teams). The remaining 4 will be played in Cape Town (Stormers), Bloemfontein (Cheetahs), Johannesburg (Lions) and Pretoria (Bulls).
That means a total of 75% of games they (and any other SA franchise) will play, will be in South Africa!
This prompted me to look back in history a bit, and look at each team’s record against every other SA franchise, home and away, and their overall record of home games played.
For the purpose of the exercise, I did not go back more than 4 years in the local derbies, as that would have meant totally different teams and players almost, but as for overall home records against all teams, I took their entire history into consideration.
The local derby records are somewhat predictable as you would imagine, with the Bulls leading the pack by some margin. Their home and away records against all SA franchises in the past 4 years reads 88% win records home and away, with their only away loss coming last year when their second string outfit lost in Cape Town, and their only home loss coming in 2008 with the Sharks beating them in Pretoria.
The Sharks follow the reigning Super rugby champions with a home record of 63% of games won against other SA teams where losses in Durban in the last 4 years coming against the Bulls (twice) and Cheetahs. Amazingly, they have a better record at other venues in SA with a record of 75% of games won elsewhere in South Africa, only losing in Pretoria and Bloemfontein once in the last 4 years.
The bridesmaids, or Stormers, stumbles into 3rd position, winning 63% of their home games against other SA teams but only managing to win 38% of their away games against other SA franchises. A frightening statistic if you are a Stormers fan is that they have not managed to win in Durban or Pretoria in the last 4 years and only managed to beat the Cheetahs once in Bloemfontein.
As for the Lions… Well let’s just say that their only success against other SA teams in the last 4 years was when they hosted, or travelled to the home of the Cheetahs, with the latter also coming in well under the 50% margin success rates on both counts.
Respectively, with overall (home and away) records against other SA franchises the Bulls (88%) and Sharks (69%) stands head and shoulders above the rest. The Stormers with 51% might upset the applecart to knock one of those two teams off the top 2 spots in the conference, but that is only going to happen if the Cheetahs repeat recent results and upset the boys from Durban.
Another influencing factor will also be how each SA franchise does against the 4 NZ and OZ teams they will face at their home grounds.
When it comes to overall home ground success percentages, the race is surprisingly closer between SA franchises. The Sharks and Bulls are again leading but amazingly, they are inseparable with both teams winning a total of 60% of their matches at home since the start of the Super rugby competition.
The Stormers are not far behind with an overall home record of 56%. So in view of that, who these three franchises will face on tour and when NZ/OZ teams tour South Africa, might make a massive difference in the overall standings of the local conference log.
As with the local derby records, the Lions (34%) and Cheetahs (39%) is not really worth mentioning other than the possibility that they might help one of the top 3 franchises.
So if you are a betting man, history shows the smart money is on the Bulls and Sharks to make it through to the 6-team play-off stages. But then, when it comes to South African derbies, which will make up 50% of matches played, history means very little…
On ANOTHER site (that shall not be named) there is a voting poll, where you have to say who do you think is SA’s best hope for 2011.
Obviously the Bulls are leading, but here is the surprising part… Second place is the Cheetahs, third the Lions, fourth the Stormers, and lastly the Sharks… can you say huh?
I think we should all remember that up to 4! teams from one country could make it through… but that will be a big shocker.
@ Greenpoint-Gunner: That poll is rigged I’m telling you!
and we all know who those voters are
lol clowns to say the least for the most
Lol, it may be rigged, but the Cheetah class of 2011 is going to be more than a handful!! The news out of Bloem is that the guys fitness and strength is up on last year. I expect the Cheetahs tio do well in the current format.
Probable team:
1. Coenie Oosthuizen
2. Adriaan Strauss
3. WP Nel
4. Hendrik Roodt
5. Wilhelm Steenkamp
6. Heinrich Brussow
7. Jua Smith
8. Ashley Johnson
9. Sarel Pretorius
10. Naas Olivier
11. Rayno Benjamin
12. Andriess Strauss
13. Robert Ebersohn
14. Phillip Burger
15. Henni Daniller
16. Marchelle vd Merwe
17. Waltie Vermeulen
18. Kabamba Floors
19. Tewis de Bruyn
20. Corne Uys
21. Louis Strydom
22. Frans Viljoen
The Cheetahs have real locks for a change, and some useful pace on the wings. News from Bloem is that Marchelle vd Merwe and Coenie’s strength is right up there, and that Phillip Burger, Rayno Benjamin, Floors, and Piet van Zyl are the fittest amongst the group, and that WP Nel, and Walti Vermeulen have bulked up quote a bit.
Man I can’t wait!!!
Ha Ha, I bet our cuzzies from Durbs, are not so keen against a game against the Cheetahs to start the S15 with. Hmmmm let me see.
1. Coenie Oosthuizen vs Jannie duP
2. Adriaan Strauss vs Bissy
3. WP Nel vs Beast (or maybe not lol)
4. Hendrik Roodt vs Sykes
5. Wilhelm Steenkamp vs Hargreves
6. Heinrich Brussow vs Daniels
7. Juan Smith vs Alberts
8. Ashley Johnson vs Kanko
9. Sarel Pretorius vs Mc Leod
10. Naas Olivier vs Pottie
11. Rayno Benjamin vs JP
12. Andriess Strauss vs Swanepoel
13. Robert Ebersohn vs Adi
14. Phillip Burger vs Mvovo
15. Henni Daniller vs Ludik
I see an almighty tussle, as both teams have macro scrums, with very good loosies.
@ Cheetah4eva:
Lambie will be at 10
Meyer Bosman at 12
Stefan Terblanche at 13
@ Cheetah4eva:
In the first game of the season anything can happen.
How it the depth of the Cheetah’s this year?
@ Pokkel:
Think Bosman is still recovering from a groin op, don’t think Lambie will be the pivot, more likely Potgieter, with Lambie on the bench.
Depth at the Cheetahs looks good for a change, just wings and flyhalf are a concern. apart from the team I hope will run out. There is still Props: Kevin Stevens and Caldo, Hooker: Rayno Barnes and Skipper Badenhorst, Locks: Waltie Vermeulen, Izak vd Westhuizen, and Francois Uys, Loosies: Frans viljoen, Phillip vd Walt, Johan Wessells, Davon Raubenheimer, Scrumhalf: Piet van Zyl, Flyhalf: Sias Ebersohn, Centre: Barry Geel, Wilmaure Louw, Morgan Newman, Wings & Fullback: Riaan Viljoen, and Fabien Juries
Your thoughts??
Cheetah4eva,
Ah, I see you made it onto the Blog, welcome fella!
Goooooooooooo Bulls!
Ryno Benjamin, man that scares me.
Good pack of forwards but very average backs. However, the Cheetahs will do well with so many games in SA. Lets be honest it is easier for them to klap the Bulls at Loftus or the Tjarks in Deben then to klap Brumbies in Canberra.
VRYSTAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAT!
10@ Loosehead:
Losbal, jou flokker…. hoe hang die ghoenne?
I’m a bit weary of the new Super Rugby Format… but you Mielieboere and Mieliestronk-innie-hol ouens should be happy, this format suits the Cheetahs down to a T.
Bit worried that the Staat have not signed a Title Sponsor yet for the Super Rugby Series… could impact a bit negatively on the preparations and chances. What do you think?
@ grootblousmile:
GBS you beautiful specimen of a man. Are you coming to Slaapstad?
I am m0er worried about how our players are going to be paid without a sponsor.
Are you checking your e-mails?
@GBS, Yes thanks, it’s nice to be back and to chat/spar with the old hands (no pun intended) and be exempt from some of the drivel I get on a previous site we all visited lol.
Stay frosty, and have a 2011 im which there is always enough!!
Go the Cheetahs….
PS: Where are all my old Cheetah allies ??
@ Cheetah4eva:
Here I am!
Have you met smallies yet? Another VRYSTAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAT supporter.
@ Cheetah4eva:
Wow, that is actually a very neat team. Barring injuries, the Cheetahs WILL be a handful. AND, UNLIKE previous years when they started of against Aus/NZ teams, they could build up some much needed momentum and confidence for the overseas teams.
Mmm, and the Lions are actually shaping up a bit too. Still not the squads that Stormers, Bulls and Sharks have, BUT, with Mitchell at the helm, I have some hopes for them.
12@ Loosehead:
No man, we are at Wilderness now for 3 days, then 3 at Hartenbos, then one night at Calitzdorp, 1 night via Oudtshoorn and over the Swartberg Pass and sleeping at Prince Albert, then we make our way up country and sleep the last night at the Gariep Dam near Colesberg.
We arrive back at The Panne on Sunday 23 Jan…
PS! Yes, I am checking E-Mail
PPS! I must speak to you klomp Slaapstadters…. the new Accreditation Passes for this year at Boolands have to be done… thinking about you and Asbakkie and Tjarkie Fornever and Pietman as possible suspects to go sit in the Press Box on behalf of R-T…
13@ Cheetah4eva:
Gooooooooooooi Mieliessssssssss here on R-T, brother.
I trust you got my mail.
14@ LH Hi Loosehead, glad to see you here, hmmm nope, can’t recall ever chatting to smallies, but will be glad to, us Cheetahs must front up to the “enemy” lol…
17@ GBS, I did get the mail, and I am glad to join up with the old crowd, and to some good debate and friendly banter.
Swartberg Pass huh! Jip, did my Vasbyt there, wasn’t to appreciative of the stunning scenery then ha ha
15@ GPG Agreed, there is a bit more depth than in the past, and even though there are relatively few stars, there is alot of solid players from Griquas that have become more accustomed to higher intensity games…
I look forward to watching Marchelle vd Merwe, Coenie Oosthuizen, and Waltie Vermeulen develop, as well as Piet van Zyl
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