After the umpteenth “review” on Pieter de Villiers it is clear the coaching panel is now cast in stone for the upcoming World Cup in New Zealand. It is therefor imperative that we now find within ourselves the passion and patriotism in our character to support our Springbok team and the coaching staff. Our personal feelings in this matter must be set aside as we look towards next year as the Springboks will need our positivity more than ever before and any negativity towards either Pieter de Villiers or anyone else involved will only deter them on focusing on the job at hand.
It is likely that SARU may still find a knowledgeable coach who will be prepared to act as a consultant to the Springboks. Whether it happens though is neither here nor there.
There are positives when you want to look for them. Starting with our players we have the talent and depth of talent to send a squad second to none to the RWC. They have the experience of winning the Rugby World Cup, something none of the other teams have. New Zealand has not won the World Cup since 1987, Australia has not won since 1999, England who is the most recent winners apart from ourselves in 2007, will also have no world cup winners in their squad.
So the one advantage we have is almost half the likely squad who will participate in the tournament have won the RWC and knows how to win it again.
Our opponents in our pool are, Wales, Fiji, Samoa and Namibia, and between all of them only Wales has recorded a victory against the Springboks back on 26 June 1999.
Between all four these opponents we have won 31 Tests, lost 1 and drawn 1. The likelyhood that any of these teams could beat us down under is realistically very small. Wales should be our toughest opponent in the pool, but even then they struggle against the physicality of Fiji and Samoa, their respective records against these two Nations are 4 wins and 3 losses against Samoa, and 6 wins and 1 loss against Fiji.
I would therefor expect South Africa to top their pool.
Our Quarter final opponent will come from pool C which features, Australia, Ireland, Italy, Russia and the USA. Australia’s biggest threat comes from Ireland and the record between these two Nations is Australia leading with 20 wins, 8 losses and 1 draw. The last time Ireland beat Australia away from home was in 1979 in Sydney. Australia has a young team playing exciting rugby, the Irish team has not impressed this year and seem to be sliding. So we can assume that we will meet Ireland as the runner up in pool C as our quarter final opponent.
Ireland has a poor history in the tournament and although they have made the quarter finals 5 times, they have been beaten by Australia twice, France twice and Argentina once. Although their record of late has been very good against us, they haven’t played SA outside of their borders for nigh on 6 years and in 7 Tests away from home they are yet to beat us.
Up to the quarter finals we would expect the Springboks to win and face New Zealand in the semi final.
Realistically we were always aware that any Rugby World Cup tournament hosted in New Zealand would be tough. They have home ground advantage and have the best home record by a long shot. Their worst home record is against the Springboks with 73%, overall they have an 82% win ratio at home.
The reality is to win in New Zealand has always been very tough, but going into the Rugby World Cup with the knowledge that Pieter de Villiers has beaten the All Blacks twice in five outings in New Zealand in his tenure as Springbok coach, improves our chances to 40%.
If that is the odds against New Zealand in 2011, I’ll take it. New Zealand also has the “chokers” tag hanging perilously around their necks and the public expectation will be an added mental hurdle they will need to overcome.
Think back to 1995, when Kitch Christie took a team mostly made up of the then Transvaal Super 10 champions of 1993, the All Blacks were overwhelming favourites to lift the Cup for a second time. They froze, we were the ones that showed the world how to stop the Jonah Lomu juggernaut. Who will ever forget when Joost took him down the first time, and when Japie Mulder rubbed his nose in the ground, how little James Small had the task of hanging on until the big boys could bring Lomu to ground.
It will be moments like these, little victories that will make the difference. We have the best win ratio in New Zealand, we have the best line out in the world with Bakkies Botha and Victor Matfield. We should have a top loose trio, the incomparable Fourie du Preez. Morne Steyn is a points machine and the right man for the job at knockout rugby. Our backline has experience, but most of all we have done this before and New Zealand wants to win this badly, in fact that is the reason why we will most likely beat them.
So come on, let us here on RT get behind Pieter de Villiers and his team. He is after all the man who will be leading us to the Rugby World Cup, for better or worse.
sorry ‘accused’ meant to refer to the ‘accuser’ (if such a word exists)
@ superBul:
Super my point is that we need to open our minds and think like the best if we want to compete with the best.
It is not about Robbie Deans results with the Aussie player pool.
If I were in charge of Bok rugby, I would think like an international businessman and employ the best coach that I could find on the planet.
That is the least I would owe to South Africa.
If that coach was Robbie Deans, then so be it.
Put down on paper who you think the top 5 coaches in world rugby would be right now and tell me where PDV is on that list.
If he is number one then well and good and we should stop complaining.
I understand the complexities of South Africa, but nobody can escape the realities of merit in getting results in the world of professional sport or business.
@ tight head:
This is tiresome, really i might sneak in PdeV at 4th, but the point is we all knew from the moment that our no 1 choice (so by the way not all in SA agreed then) HM might be 2 or 3 in that list.
Even if i pick GH as number one, RD at 2 and HM at 3 many would disagree. There is much more to it than picking at this late stage a hospital job coach.
I would rather pick coaching teams and then the All Blacks are way way ahead with the 3 coaches, but then again is it not in their 7th year now, and they also escaped the ax at a stage.
Our 3 some does not do it but i blame one guy for it DICK MUIR
32@ tight head:
I don’t think De Villiers would make one of my top 50 coaches in the world and that’s being bloody optimistic…. Tricky Dicky would be even worse, most high school coaches would rank before him….
@ superBul:
Super it is the principle that I am talking about.
We can never get it right if we are all about transformation that does not look for quality.
I agree that it is a mess in that it is too late to hire and fire the coaches at this point.
As for blaming Dick Muir, I can tell you that in a business he cannot be blamed as much as his direct boss.
With that I am going for a beer now.
Go well Super!!
@ Bullscot:
Bullscot – Sorry for delay in replying. Work got tin the way.
The ref is a guy called Rob Debney – RFU ref and IRB linesman. It was at a meeting of the Warwickshire Society of Referees on Monday evening held at Earlsdon RFC in Coventry.
He gave a presentation which was very good on tackle zone and infringments and poked a lot of fun at a lot of refs (himself included) but I did think hinting that JK is a gambler and gambles on his own games is a bit unproffessional. It was supposed to be tongue in cheek comment…maybe it was and maybe I am just an over sensitive Japie. But I always back the South African irrespective of circumstance and I thought this went a bit far. he did say JK is a great guy to socialise with but warned not play cards with him.
Having a pop at a ref for being unfit, gullible or lazy is one thing but hinting at dishonesty is abit crass.
A mate of mine is a ref and invited me to the meeting.
@ Mielie Pap Mike:
Do you live in Coventry?
My Gran lived in Earlsdon, and I recently visited Coventrians and Tamworth RC’s.
@ Mielie Pap Mike:
Nae bother about the delay man, thanks for clearing that up at first I thought there may be a serious allegation there but as you say it came out tongue in cheek, but with all the betting scandals going on around sport (in particular cricket) maybe I’m a bit sensitive to hearing about yet more “allegations”, and as you say its a bit off the mark to joke about things like that.
Scrumdown
I live in Leamington Spa which is about 5 miles south of Coventry but have at various times played against most Cov sides including Coventrians, Its a very rough place to play as violence is the order of the day – scrum procedure is crouch, punch, pause, headbutt.
I have had my head kicked in on many occasions and used to dread Coventry games as you always got bliksemed.
Happy days – remind me of the old PWV fire brigade and SAP leagues which were also horrific especially for a rooinek like me.
Bullscot
It was said tongue in cheek but I got the impression he was repeating rumours that all the refs gossip about.
Sort of like the “mark lawrenson is gay” quotes in football circles – if its repeated often enough it starts to be come fact even if there is no truth in it.
Bet you if Kaplan was tall , was always matey with the players on the field and didnt make tough decisions he wouldnt be controversial or subject to this sort of BS – jealousy I think.
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