Hang on a minute!

We have read a lot and discussed a lot that our players are overplayed. The Tim Noakes’ and the Neels Liebel’s and other scientists all have their opinions and we have recently learned that the ideal is for a player to play no more than 1400 to 1600 minutes of Rugby per year.

 I am of the view that these minutes are dependant on whether you are a backline, looseforward or tight forward player and also on your age and your proneness to injury. Guys like Bismarck get injured often, and its probably a challenge to even get him up to the 1600 minute mark!

There were also many question marks over the fitness levels of the Springboks, especially John Smit and the issue is raised whether the guys are unfit, over exerted, or just too old, again, especially John Smit. And when these sort of issues are raised, many commentators state that the All Blacks play just as much Rugby as we do, so we cannot possibly be over exerted, so we must be either unfit or too old. BUt I have not seen any of the actual data, so I cannot really comment.

I do not know enough about the Springbok setup to know whether the guys are fit or not. But what I can do is to look into the matter of “overplayed” and “too old”.  I am of the opinion that it is not only this current year which we need to look at. The Springboks have had a very tough two years actually,with very little rest in between. Two Super 14’s, two tri nations, the British and Irish Lions Tour, the end of year tours and then the Currie Cup in between.

I have gone to look at the current squad and selected the players who, up to now in the Tri Nations, played the most games and selected the top 22 players based on number of tri nations matches. I have done the same for the All Blacks, since they are the benchmark for this year.

What was initially very apparent just from this exercise, was that there was little consistency in our squad selection and, well known to all, we’ve struggled with injuries and suspensions. In fact, the All Blacks have had 16 players who consistently played in each of their 5 matches so far, the Springboks have had 9. Through 5 Tests, the All Blacks made use of 28 players in total and, the Springboks have used 31 in total. What this tells us is that, although we are not far off from the benchmark of 28, (we lost Bekker, Jannie and Ruan Pienaar through injury), we did not settle on a match 22. Between the first 3N 2010 test and the last, the All Blacks made 4 changes to their match 22 of which 1 was positional and three were substitutions and the Springboks made 10, 1 was positional.

So, firstly, consistency was a problem which was noted even without looking for it. Interestingly though, in the last two years, the Springboks have used 47 players in Test Matches as opposed to the All Blacks 52. What I also noticed was that despite Peter de Villiers being criticized for not being able to bring young talent through, the Springboks have 6 debutants included in their top 22 in this exercise, while the All Blacks have 7. Again, very close.

I then looked at how much rugby these players have played for the last two years. These include the 2009 and 2010 Super 14 and Tri Nations, the 2009 Currie Cup and ANZ Cup, the British & Irish Lions matches, the end of year tours and other tests in the same period as well as the Northern Hemisphere competitions (Heineken Cup etc) for the overseas based players. My sources were scrum.com and itsrugby.co.uk.

I then ranked the players in terms of minutes played, from most to least. The players selected for the analysis and their minutes played in total are as follows:

It is clear that the SA players have played the most rugby between the two sides. In total, these Springboks have played 60,610 minutes and the All Blacks have played 55,787 (9% less). The Top 10 individual players include only one All Black and 9 Springboks. Of the 9 Springboks, 4 are forwards with Victor Matfield the oldest at 33 years. The top 4 All Black forwards have played a total of 86% of the amount of rugby that the top 4 Springbok forwards have and the top 5 All Black backs have played a total of 84% of the amount of Rugby that the top 5 Springbok backs have played. Of the top 10 All Blacks, interestingly enough, 4 is also forwards and 6 backs. The same as for the Boks…

What is very interesting though, is that guys like Gurthro Steenkamp, Victor Matfield and Jaque Fourie, despite being in the top 6 players, are still looking incredibly fit and healthy on the park, while it is very apparent why Morne Steyn, Zane Kirchner, Bryan Habana, Spies and Smit seems off the boil. We also need to remember that John Smit mostly played at tighthead in 2009 and in his 13 Super 14 matches this year, he played 5 at both loosehead and hooker and 3 at tighthead. The All Blacks tightead, Ben Franks, have played 52% of the time that John Smit has and he is 6 years his junior. Even when we compare John’s direct opposite number, Keven Mealamu, he has only played 77% of the time John has and they are the same age. And we all know that playing tighthead is the toughest position on the field, especially if you are not a specialist in that area. Is John Smit too old? No. He is a legend, who have put his team’s needs above himself time and again! And he played too much rugby, which was also alluded to in a previous post of mine.http://blogs.sport24.co.za/uysh/saru-abusing-john-smit

In fact, not only John Smit, but when all are compared head to head, there are only 7 New Zealand players who have played more Rugby than their opposition numbers in the Springboks in the last two years. They are Ma’a Nonu, Brad Thorne, Jerome Kaino, Richie McCaw, Jimmy Cowan, Israel Dagg and Victor Vito.

It is noticeable when looking at the top performing Springbok players in this year’s 3N competition, how much less time they have played than their team mates. Guys like Schalk, Danie, de Jongh and Aplon. And that’s not even talking of Juan Smith who have been out of action or quite some time and have come back with a bang!

A quick comparison between the two sides reveals the following:

On average, the All Blacks forwards have played 6% less and their backs 10% less rugby than the Springboks. Per player, they have played 219 minutes less than the Boks, which roughly equates to nearly 3 matches. More worryingly, is that our Top 5 used players have each played 609 minutes more than the All Blacks top 5 used players. That equates to nearly 8 full rugby matches.

The Average age of both squads is 27. Our forwards is 1 year older and our backs one year younger. So, no, our players are NOT too old.

The Springboks have played, as a group, 42 test matches more in their careers than the All Blacks. So we are more experienced overall, but not necessarily as a group.

In Domestic Rugby matches, the Springboks have played on average 100 minutes per player more Rugby than the All Blacks per season.

In International competitions, the Springboks have played 162 minutes more rugby per player than the All Blacks. This is about 1 full match per season per player.

In Tests matches, however, the comparison reveals that in the last two years, the All Blacks have played 44 minutes of Test Rugby per player more than the Springboks have. This is mainly because the All Blacks have played 22 Tests in the last 2 years vs the Springboks 21.

I would not suggest that fatigue is the only reason that we have lost in this series, but it is quite clear that our players have played more rugby in the last two years than the All Blacks have and that, especially some of our more senior players (who would have thought that Morne is already a senior player?) needs a break. How we manage our players over the next period is crucial and this post has clarified for me at least, what many have been suggesting, and others have been denying.

We have also seen that a prolonged break helps players to come back refreshed and stronger. Just see what impact Juan Smith has made.  We can expect as much from the likes of Brussouw and Fourie du Preez when they return from injury or let’s say, rehab.

I just hope that when new players are blooded, as is the demand (and I understand why) they are not drawn down by the constant negative criticism of the harsh public so their spirits are broken and they are lost to us forever.

On a side note, especially for bluebird, I include this picture of Percy…