Over the last month or so, a common discussion around pubs, braais and common folk have been the perceived rise of Stormers rugby and I thought a little investigation should give some perspective on whether this is a storm in a teacup, or the real deal.

In the last decade this is the table standings for the Western Cape Franchise in the Super 14.

2001 – 7^th with 5 wins from 11 matches, away wins Hurricanes, Bulls

2002- 7^th  with 5 wins from 11 matches, away wins Sharks, Chiefs and Cats

2003 – 9^th with 5 wins from 11 matches, away wins Waratahs and Bulls

2004 – 3^rd with 7 wins from 11 matches, away wins Cats, Reds, Blues and sharks

2005 – 9^th with 3 wins from 11 matches, away one draw against the Highlanders

2006 – 11^th with 4 wins from 13 matches, away wins Lions, Reds and Western Force

2007 – 10^th with 6 wins from 13 matches, away wins Hurricanes and Waratahs

2008  – 5^th with 8 wins from 13 matches, away wins Reds, Chiefs, Force and lions

2009  – 10^th with 5 wins from 13 matches, away wins highlanders and cheetahs

2010 – 2^nd with 9 wins from 13 matches, away wins Lions, Blues, chiefs

In 120 pool matches since 2001, the Stormers have won 57 matches, 3 draws and 60 losses. Twenty five of their wins have been away from home and 15 of those wins have been in the antipodes.

The only Australian team they have not beaten away is the Brumbies.

The only New Zealand team they have not beaten away is the Crusaders.

What is very interesting, is that it doesn’t seem the Stormers have a problem with winning away, even in the antipodes they find a way to win. What is a startling fact though is that their home record suggests that Newlands is not a fortress as they have only won 32 matches at home, considering that they have played 60 matches at home, their record shows only a 53% success rate.

This home record is a significant indicator as to why the Stormers have been so inconsistent over the last decade and not once during this decade have they carried good form from one year to the next.

For any Franchise to have a chance to consistently make the semi finals, you need to have your home base become a fortress.  Look at the Crusaders and Bulls, their fortresses are impregnable, and hence with winning their home matches, 2 or 3 away wins plus bonus points have been their key to making the play offs.

Every home loss sets a team back by a minimum of 8 log points as the oppoisition gains 4 points and the home team loses 4. When you lose your home matches, you need to win an additional 2 away matches to make up any deficit.

This past season in the Super 14 the Stormers have played exciting rugby with a very solid defense. The following players surely had something to do with their successes, Habana and Fourie were great acquisitions for the Franchise and players like Andries Bekker, Schalk Burger, Duvenhage, Tiaan Liebenberg are the engine room of this team. Players like De Jongh, Gio aplon and Deon Fourie has made a big impact in the way they attack and will surely make their mark in the future.Add to that, Allistair Coetzee and his defensive coach has made this Franchise the most effective defensive unit in the competition.

I am however not convinced that the Western Cape Franchise have turned things around yet. We have seen this all before, and as the super 14 final has shown, the last two inches upstairs still needs some work. They will have the players, there is no doubt about that, but next year will be the litmus tests for the Franchise, it will be the time to take the successes of 2010 and build on that to at least emulate 2010, and if they cannot make the finals of the new look Super 15, history will once again repeat itself.