South Africa’s momentum must be stopped at Eden Park tonight. If it is not, then the Springboks’ confidence will swell to frightening proportions in the months to come.
By TOBY ROBSON in Auckland – The Dominion Post
The buildup to this test has played out to a backdrop unfamiliar to modern times. South Africa, rather than the All Blacks, are being lauded for their depth and consistency and, despite the TAB odds, they deserve the favourites tag ahead of tonight’s Tri-Nations opener.
If John Smit’s men can win in Auckland for the first time since 1937 it would mark their fourth straight victory over the All Blacks.
Between 2001 and 2007 the Springboks endured 13 losses from 16 tests against New Zealand. They have been clawing back their pride ever since and a win tonight would end any debate that they have reclaimed the mantle of rugby’s most feared nation.
Richie McCaw knows it and he doesn’t like it.
“Yeah, it’s important,” he said after yesterday’s captain’s run. “I’d be lying if I said there wasn’t a little bit [of revenge] in there.
“But you can’t just rely on that to get the edge out there. The guys are pretty excited about getting into this.
“For those who were there last year I guess it was a bit frustrating that we didn’t perform how we liked.”
The word “pressure” has been used on a daily basis this week and it’s no coincidence that Graham Henry has named his most experienced side in his tenure for the occasion.
And what an occasion. This match promises to be an epic encounter between two evenly matched and equally motivated sides.
Tactics will be crucial. The rule interpretations have swung in the All Blacks’ favour, but the Bulls showed during the Super 14 that sides can still be bludgeoned into submission if the basics are done well.
Morne Steyn will kick high and back the chase of wing Bryan Habana, or he will kick out and back locks Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha to undo the All Blacks lineout.
The set piece will have kept Henry up at night. It was poor in Hamilton, and Wales grew on the back of a dominant scrum.
Neemia Tialata has paid the price and Owen Franks must now confirm his rising status as a test tighthead.
Where South Africa have become more dangerous is in their running game, with Wynand Olivier and Jaque Fourie often joined in the midfield by the dynamic power of No8 Pierre Spies.
Ma’a Nonu will be feeling the butterflies after just 70 minutes of club rugby in the past six weeks, but he possesses the physicality to unnerve the Springboks in the middle of the park.
Nonu will also provide his side with a target from the set piece that was lacking in the June tests.
It is from phase play that Dan Carter’s running game has prospered and, if the advantage line is gained, he will be encouraged to carry on.
Flanker Jerome Kaino must dominate the inside channel on defence because South Africa’s big men will go there all day.
The battle of the loose forwards alone will be worth the price of admission. McCaw must nullify young tyro Francois Louw around the park, Kaino cancel out the muscle of Schalk Burger and Kieran Read try to keep pace with Spies.
It will be a big match for All Blacks wing Joe Rokocoko in his bid to ward off his detractors and the challenge of Hosea Gear.
If the All Blacks are to win, Rokocoko, Cory Jane and fullback Mils Muliaina must see the ball.
If the All Blacks go into their shell they will play into South Africa’s hands and negate the one area where they are clearly superior.
Territory must not be ignored, but the All Blacks have an ability to strike from deep, and early success will prey on the visitors’ minds.
So too will the weight of being favourites, a tag the All Blacks will be desperate to snatch back before it becomes any tougher.