Wales take on the Springboks at the Millennium Stadium, Cardiff on Saturday at 15:30 SA Time.
This weekend sees the start of the Southern Hemisphere Test season and with the Super 14 having taken place just last weekend the Bokke are not at full strenght due to the fact that it is wise to rest a few weary players.
We look at the match and the Welsch squad who also does not appear to be at full strengh.
With the exception of about 5 players, the Springboks are still very close to a possible 1st choice side. The exceptions to a possible 1st choice side is probably CJ van der Linde, Francois Louw, Joe van Niekerk, Ricky Januarie and Odwa Ndungane.
On the bench there is a definate bunch who should not be considered near the first choice namely, Chilliboy Ralepelle, Jannie du Plessis, Alistair Hargreaves and lastly Meyer Bosman. Zane Kirchner, Bjorn Basson and Ryan Kankowski however does the bench no harm.
Key for the Springboks will be how this mix-and-match squad gels together in the first Test of the season but some strong combinations who are used to one another can still be found in the ranks… John Smit (hooker) and BJ Botha (tighthead), Danie Rossouw and Victor Matfield (locks), Juan de Jongh and Jaque Fourie and Gio Aplon (centres and right wing).
It will be interesting to see how Francois Louw, Dewald Potgieter and Joe van Niekerk combine as backrow forwards, to me the balance here is just a bit odd, both flankers being somewhat of the same type of player combined to a No 8 who has’nt played with SA Flankers for a couple of years.
To my mind, Frans Steyn is playing in his best position at fullback and in Odwa Ndungane there is a solid yet unspectacular left wing.
The Halfback pairing of Ricky Januarie and Ruan Pienaar is a strange one…. and a big part of win or lose will hinge on these 2 pivotal positions. With Ricky not even considered No 1 scrumhalf in his franchise, if might have been wiser playing Ruan at scrumhalf with a recognised flyhalf at No 10…. someone like Morné Steyn or Peter Grant, which should be the case next week against the French.
On the other hand we have the Welsch side, themselves not a settled combination with the likes of Andy Powell, Gethin Jenkins and Shane Williams missing from the squad.
Wales have the settled halfback pairing of Mike Phillips and Stephen Jones, with B & I Lions midfielder, Jamie Roberts next to them at inside center… these 3 are a dangerous combination on any given day.
The Welsch front row is strong with Mathew Rees (hooker) and Adam Jones (tighthead) but the locks should not be as good as the Springbok locks….
To me the backrow forwards are a bit of an unknown quantity but it will be interesting to see how they go against a Bokke combination who has never played as a unit.
James Hook simply does not have the class of Jaque Fourie and the back 3 on the Welsch side should not easily have the wood over the Bokke back 3, both from an offensive and defensive point of view.
Playing as a TEAM and supporting one another as combinations will be key to the outcome of this match!
In the beginning of a Test season it is always difficult to make clear predictions and the mix-and-match nature of the Springbok squad only adds to my conundrum in making a prediction for this game.
My biggest worry, apart from team members lies in the Springbok coaching staff where I feel neither Dick Muir (backline coach) or Gary Gold (forwards coach) are close to the best SA has to offer. Dick Muir was found severely lacking this year at the Lions, to the extent that he deserves to be dropped from any position at the Bokke… and Gary Gold has never really impressed me, ever. We seem to be stuck though, with these 2 sub-standard coaches in this, the highest test arena of rugby for the rest of the year and maybe beyond that.
I’m not one to easily pick against history though and the Welsch have only beaten the springboks once, 10 years ago… so I still predict a Springbok win….. Bokke by 5.
Recent results:
2008: South Africa won 20-15, Cardiff
2008: South Africa won 37-21, Pretoria
2008: South Africa won 43-17, Bloemfontein
2007: South Africa won 34-12, Cardiff
2005: South Africa won 33-16, Cardiff
Teams:
Wales: 15 Lee Byrne, 14 Leigh Halfpenny, 13 James Hook, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 Tom Prydie, 10 Stephen Jones, 9 Mike Phillips, 8 Ryan Jones (captain), 7 Sam Warburton, 6 Jonathan Thomas, 5 Deiniol Jones, 4 Bradley Davies, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Matthew Rees, 1 Paul James.
Replacements: 16 Huw Bennett, 17 John Yapp, 18 Alun Wyn Jones, 19 Rob McCusker, 20 Richie Rees, 21 Dan Biggar, 22 Andrew Bishop.
South Africa: 15 Frans Steyn, 14 Gio Aplon, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Juan de Jongh, 11 Odwa Ndungane, 10 Ruan Pienaar, 9 Ricky Januarie, 8 Joe van Niekerk, 7 Dewald Potgieter, 6 François Louw, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Danie Rossouw, 3 BJ Botha, 2 John Smit (captain), 1 CJ van der Linde.
Replacements: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 Jannie du Plessis, 18 Alistair Hargreaves, 19 Ryan Kankowski, 20 Meyer Bosman, 21 Zane Kirchner, 22 Bjorn Basson.
Date: Saturday, 5 June 2010
Kick-off: 14.30 (13.30 GMT; 15.30 SA time)
Venue: Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
Expected weather: Sunny intervals. High of 21°C, low of 11°C
Referee: Alan Lewis (Ireland)
Assistant referees: Dave Pearson (England), Robin Goodliffe (England)
TMO: Jim Yuille (Scotland)
fee fi fo fam i smell the blood of a welshmen
Tough one. Bokke better quality players, versus, Wales better team continuity.
Bokke by 10.
Die hoogste bome vang die meeste wind. In hierdie geval, letterlik.
The Welsh are very ordinary.
They also show very little tactical appreciation of the modern game.
They probably need a change of coaching staff, as the current coach and assistant churn out the same old stuff about standing up to the physical onslaught of the Boks, when the reality is that we outmuscle them most times.
Simply put we have too many big, powerfull skilled and fast players for them.
Our pack will be too good for them, and the intensity of our loose forwards, who are used to playing a high tempo, powerfull game in the S14 will be too much for them.
We are just better than them.
tighthead @ 4
you dont know what you’re talking about bru!! 😆
anyway, welcome back
nice to see you on here again!!
@ Ashley:
Hey Ash,
Nice to know you still have a sense of humour after last week!!
Has Helen banned Vuvuzelas in Slaapstad yet?
tighthead @ 6
did something important happen last week? 😯
o, and vuvuzelas are for hooligans!!
#8
oops
and
just as i posted that, my kid walks into the shop with
…
yep, you’ve guessed it …. a vuvuzela!!! 😆
8@ Ashley:
Your kid is a hooligan….. hehehehe
gbs @ 9
😆
So let me say it clearly:
We will smash these pretenders tomorrow afternoon!!
Why anybody thinks they are anywhere close to us is a mystery to me.
tighthead @ 11
its called
“blowing smoke up their asses”
😯 or was it “smoking out of their asses”?
hmmm, not sure now!!
jeez, now i’m as confused as a bulls supporter!! 😆
@ Ashley:
Ash, smoking is bad for you but Draadsitting is even worse!!
I notice some journos doing a bit of Draadsitting on this one.
tighthead @ 13
ag, i think one can understand why not a lot of journos want to stick their neck out on this one ….
think we can still pull it off, though!!
It was a woman who drove me to drink and I never got the chance to thank her. 😉
W.C. Fields
Tighthead, I wish I could share your optimism but the power of team dynamics keeps tripping me up. Why don’t you believe it will be a factor?
Met moeite sleep die brandweerman die dronk kêrel uit die
brandende gebou. Buite gekom vra hy aan die dronkaard: ‘Het jy
enige idee hoe die brand ontstaan het?’ Waarop die dronkaard
antwoord: ‘Geen idee, toe ek binnetoe gegaan het was dit al klaar
aan die brand!’
@ fender:
Howzit Fender.
Lets look at our team.
Very importantly our best 2 scrummagers at number 2 and 3, who would select each other every time if asked, “Who do you want to scrum next to you? ”
CJ on the loose head not a bad selection next to the other two.
Locks Victor and Danie, team mates and as good as it gets.
Loose forwards who are light years ahead of anything Wales have got, even though they are a new combination.
Men against boys for us in this department.
4 Stormers in the backline that was the very best in the S14 and played at a level that you simply dont see in the NH.
Frans at the back, who would be any nations first choice, and that leaves Ruan to conduct the show with only Odwa being ordinary in my view.
As much as I understand team dynamic, there is too much firepower there for Wales.
Oom Tos voel al lankal nie lekker nie en gaan Dokter toe want hy het meer probleme as ‘n tweedehandse Citroen.
Die dokter kyk hom mooi deur en sê “Oom kom volgende week dan bring oom vir my ‘n bloedmonster, ‘n urinemonster en ‘n stoelgangmonster. Die oom hoor nie meer lekker nie en vra vir sy vrou “Wat sê die dokter nou?”
Tannie Tes kyk vir oom Tos en antwoord “Hy sê jy moet jou onnerbroek vir hom los”
18@ tight head:
What do you think of the Bokke Assistant coaches… because that’s where my real worry lies…
… and of course in our Halfback pairing’s ability to connect front and back so quickly….
True that most Nations would kill for loosies like SA has, including these 2 flankers…
CJ van der Linde is iffy in my opinion…..
19@ Ashley:
Kon jy nie maar vir die Oompie ‘n beter naampie gekies het nie?
gbs @ 21
issie my djokie
is fanus rautenbach sinne!!
So kort voor die runderpes in Namakawaland is daar ‘n oom en antie.
Hulle het kinders by dosyne. By die geboorte van die laaste een waarsku die dokter dat die antie se masjienerie nie meer so lekker is nie en dat sy bes moontlik nie nog ‘n geboorte sal oorleef nie.
Die oom en antie skrik,want hulle is lief vir mekaar en wil nou nie sommer moedswillig die antie laat dood nie.
Nou slaap hulle apart op sulke ysterkateltjies, maar die ongedurigheid broei in hulle. Een nag lê die oom wakker en hy hoor die antie se kateltjie kraak en kreun soos sy rondrol. Na ‘n rukkie is dit stil en hy kyk na haar, net om te sien dat sy hom met groot oë beloer.
“Jy keek vi my,”sê hy.
“Ja,” sê sy, “ek keek vi jou. ”
“Nou maar hoekom keek jy vi my?” vra hy.
“Ek dink” sê sy.
“Nou maar wat dink jy so innie laatnag?” vra hy.
“Ek dink jy moet my maar die doodskoot kom sjee”
@ grootblousmile:
I agree with you about CJ, who I have never rated as the best.
I also think the assistant coaches are very ordinary.
The truth is that we have so much more talent than every other nation right now, that we can get away with some ordinary coaching brains.
Given the quality of players that we have, we should dominate rugby for the immediate future, but you can be sure we will shoot our selves in the foot with some bad decisions at the coaching level.
Tolla stap eendag in ‘n bar in met ‘n groot dors. “Barman, wat kos ‘n dubbel Whisky?”
“Dis R35.50 meneer.”
“Nee hel, dit is te veel, wat kos ‘n dubbel gin?”
“Dis R28.50 meneer.”
“Nee genade, wat kos ‘n klein glasie wyn dan?”
“Dis R12.50 meneer.”
“Goed, gee maar vir my ‘n klein glasie wyn”
Die kroegman draai om, om die wynbottel van die rak agter hom af te haal. Tolla kyk en hy kyk nog ‘n slag “Hi wat sit daar agter in jou nek?”
“Dit is ‘n groot moessie meneer” antwoord die kroegman half skaam.
“O, ok, alles is so hoog hier dat ek gedink het dit is jou poepol”
Dit is ‘n diep stil donker nag.
Vêr poep ‘n BLOUBUL sag.
Met ‘n dowwe geplof,
Val ‘n drol in die stof.
Geduldig en gedwee,
Hoor ek ‘n geskree,
‘n BLOUBUL het sy hol
Met ‘n kaktus afgevee!
GBS.
Making Ash CEO of grappies was a brilliant appointment on your part.
What other hidden talents does he have?
I would have played the following team in stead of the one we see here…
1. Beast
2. John Smit
3. BJ Botha
4. Danie Pakslae Rossouw or possibly Flip van der Merwe
5. Victor Matfield
6. Francois Louw
7. Jean Deysel
8. Ryan Kankowski
9. Ruan Pienaar
10. Peter Grant
11. Lwazi Mvovo
12. Juan de Jongh
13. Jacque Fourie
14. Gio Aplon
15. Frans Steyn
In other words, the Bokke front 5 (with Gurthro maybe replacing Beast from next week and Beast on the bench then)
Francois Louw at Openside No 6 because from next week it will be back to Schalla at No 6… Louw can rest from next week onwards.
Deysel at No 7 to rest Dewald Potgieter now, for him to do duty as from next week till Juan Smith is back in the mix.
Kanko at No 8, to combine with Deysel at No 7 and Ruan at No 9… thereby establishing the proper link between forwards and backs. From next week Spies at No 8, to combine with Dewald Potgieter at No 7 and for them to combine with the 2 Bulls locks.
Ruan Pienaar at No 9, because from next week he would have to carry Fourie du Preez’ mantle.
Peter Grant to combine with De Jongh at No 12, with both Grant and De Jongh making space from next week for Morné Steyn and Wynand Olivier (but with both Grant & De Jongh on the bench from next week on)
Lwazi Mvovo I would pick at Left wing till Bryan Habana replaces him from next week onwards, he’s better than Odwa and J P Pietersen in my opinion.
Fransie Steyn at No 15 for this week only, Zane Kirchner for next week onwards till Fransie manages to get himself back to SA on a permanent basis. If Zane did not need rest, I would have picked him ahead of Fransie, not because I think he’s better than Fransie but because I do not believe in selecting overseas based players for the Bokke at all… the only exception being BJ Botha at tighthead because the position is so vital.
So, my team is selected with 4 vital things in mind….
1. Strong tight 5
2. Lots of combinations who have played together to make the team gel easily.
3. Playing future Boks / Bok replacements now (Louw, Deysel, Grant, De Jongh, Mvovo) so that they can rest from next week or be in the broader mix from next week anyway.
4. Staying away from overseas Bokke, except BJ Botha (I mentioned why).
tighthead @ 23
i speak tree langwitches deliciosly
afrikaans
inglisssssss
and ?????????
27@ tight head:
None, he’s a Stormer…. hehehe
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