Wales take on the Springboks at the Millennium Stadium, Cardiff on Saturday at 15:30 SA Time.

This weekend sees the start of the Southern Hemisphere Test season and with the Super 14 having taken place just last weekend the Bokke are not at full strenght due to the fact that it is wise to rest a few weary players.

We look at the match and the Welsch squad who also does not appear to be at full strengh.

With the exception of about 5 players, the Springboks are still very close to a possible 1st choice side. The exceptions to a possible 1st choice side is probably CJ van der Linde, Francois Louw, Joe van Niekerk, Ricky Januarie and Odwa Ndungane.

On the bench there is a definate bunch who should not be considered near the first choice namely, Chilliboy Ralepelle, Jannie du Plessis, Alistair Hargreaves and lastly Meyer Bosman. Zane Kirchner, Bjorn Basson and Ryan Kankowski however does the bench no harm.

Key for the Springboks will be how this mix-and-match squad gels together in the first Test of the season but some strong combinations who are used to one another can still be found in the ranks… John Smit (hooker) and BJ Botha (tighthead), Danie Rossouw and Victor Matfield (locks), Juan de Jongh and Jaque Fourie and Gio Aplon (centres and right wing).

It will be interesting to see how Francois Louw, Dewald Potgieter and Joe van Niekerk combine as backrow forwards, to me the balance here is just a bit odd, both flankers being somewhat of the same type of player combined to a No 8 who has’nt played with SA Flankers for a couple of years.

To my mind, Frans Steyn is playing in his best position at fullback and in Odwa Ndungane there is a solid yet unspectacular left wing.

The Halfback pairing of Ricky Januarie and Ruan Pienaar is a strange one…. and a big part of win or lose will hinge on these 2 pivotal positions. With Ricky not even considered No 1 scrumhalf in his franchise, if might have been wiser playing Ruan at scrumhalf with a recognised flyhalf at No 10…. someone like Morné Steyn or Peter Grant, which should be the case next week against the French.

On the other hand we have the Welsch side, themselves not a settled combination with the likes of Andy Powell, Gethin Jenkins and Shane Williams missing from the squad.

Wales have the settled halfback pairing of Mike Phillips and Stephen Jones, with B & I Lions midfielder, Jamie Roberts next to them at inside center… these 3 are a dangerous combination on any given day.

The Welsch front row is strong with Mathew Rees (hooker) and Adam Jones (tighthead)  but the locks should not be as good as the Springbok locks…. 

To me the backrow forwards are a bit of an unknown quantity but it will be interesting to see how they go against a Bokke combination who has never played as a unit.

James Hook simply does not have the class of Jaque Fourie and the back 3 on the Welsch side should not easily have the wood over the Bokke back 3, both from an offensive and defensive point of view.

Playing as a TEAM and supporting one another as combinations will be key to the outcome of this match!

In the beginning of a Test season it is always difficult to make clear predictions and the mix-and-match nature of the Springbok squad only adds to my conundrum in making a prediction for this game.

My biggest worry, apart from team members lies in the Springbok coaching staff where I feel neither Dick Muir (backline coach) or Gary Gold (forwards coach) are close to the best SA has to offer. Dick Muir was found severely lacking this year at the Lions, to the extent that he deserves to be dropped from any position at the Bokke… and Gary Gold has never really impressed me, ever. We seem to be stuck though, with these 2 sub-standard coaches in this, the highest test arena of rugby for the rest of the year and maybe beyond that.

I’m not one to easily pick against history though and the Welsch have only beaten the springboks once, 10 years ago… so I still predict a Springbok win….. Bokke by 5.

Recent results:
2008: South Africa won 20-15, Cardiff
2008: South Africa won 37-21, Pretoria
2008: South Africa won 43-17, Bloemfontein
2007: South Africa won 34-12, Cardiff
2005: South Africa won 33-16, Cardiff

Teams:

Wales:  15 Lee Byrne, 14 Leigh Halfpenny, 13 James Hook, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 Tom Prydie, 10 Stephen Jones, 9 Mike Phillips, 8 Ryan Jones (captain), 7 Sam Warburton, 6 Jonathan Thomas, 5 Deiniol Jones, 4 Bradley Davies, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Matthew Rees, 1 Paul James.
Replacements: 16 Huw Bennett, 17 John Yapp, 18 Alun Wyn Jones, 19 Rob McCusker, 20 Richie Rees, 21 Dan Biggar, 22 Andrew Bishop.

South Africa: 15 Frans Steyn, 14 Gio Aplon, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Juan de Jongh, 11 Odwa Ndungane, 10 Ruan Pienaar, 9 Ricky Januarie, 8 Joe van Niekerk, 7 Dewald Potgieter, 6 François Louw, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Danie Rossouw, 3 BJ Botha, 2 John Smit (captain), 1 CJ van der Linde.
Replacements: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 Jannie du Plessis, 18 Alistair Hargreaves, 19 Ryan Kankowski, 20 Meyer Bosman, 21 Zane Kirchner, 22 Bjorn Basson.

Date: Saturday, 5 June 2010
Kick-off: 14.30 (13.30 GMT; 15.30 SA time)
Venue: Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
Expected weather: Sunny intervals. High of 21°C, low of 11°C
Referee: Alan Lewis (Ireland)
Assistant referees: Dave Pearson (England), Robin Goodliffe (England)
TMO: Jim Yuille (Scotland)