The Australian way: get the best talent, however young into a Test jersey, writes Sunday Telegraph columnist Paul Ackford

THOSE who profess to know about these things consider Australia a sensible bet to do well at next year’s World Cup. Given that we’re talking about a nation that has won it twice and contested a final on another occasion, “well” is shorthand for lifting the trophy for a record third time. On that basis then, England, who face the Wallabies in Perth this Saturday in the first of two eagerly anticipated Tests, should be more than a little concerned.

Except that Australia’s recent form doesn’t sit well with the upbeat assessment. Of their last 11 fixtures, which stretch back to include their European tour, the Wallabies have won just three, against South Africa, England and Wales. Admittedly, the bulk of their defeats have come at the hands of the big boys of world rugby, the Blacks and the Boks, in the Tri-Nations tournament, but even lowly Scotland claimed Australia’s scalp on a famous Murrayfield afternoon last November and a waning Ireland grabbed a draw soon after. Invincible, the Wallabies are most certainly not.

Yet it is not madness to suggest that Australia are close to becoming a very fine outfit. Three of their provincial franchises made the top six in this season’s Super 14 competition, indicating a spread and depth of talent which has not always been apparent in their ranks, and the Wallabies invariably operate with that rarest commodity in international rugby: innate intelligence.

All the great men of Down Under, from Nick Farr-Jones, David Campese, John Eales and Michael Lynagh of the Nineties; through George Gregan, Stephen Larkham and George Smith of 2003 vintage; and on to Matt Giteau, David Pocock and Benn Robinson of the current lot have been rugby savvy. New Zealand do intensity, South Africa do power, Australia do smart. It’s just the way it is.

Historically, that was all Australia offered because that was all they had. Any side that could take them to the cleaners up front, and, frankly, that meant any team with a halfway decent front five, could bully Australia into defeat, a favourite tactic of South Africa’s even now. But there are signs that Australia might be stiffening their forward effort.

They have always had back-row forwards to die for. George Smith, the flanker who retired from international competition in February, has been one of the more influential players of his generation. Smith’s work at the breakdown and in the tackle, constantly evolving to take account of various law changes, forced coaches to reshape entire defensive strategies. The fact that Wallaby coach Robbie Deans can leave Phil Waugh, a contemporary of Smith’s and very nearly as good, out of his 30-man squad is an indication of just how confident Deans is in the abilities of David Pocock and skipper Rocky Elsom, the latest clutch of extraordinary flankers. That’s Aussie rugby all over, by the way. No doffing of the cap to elder statesmen, just an intense drive to get the best talent, however young or inexperienced, into a Test jersey.

It is this investment in the future rooted in the present, a policy England seem reluctant to pursue, which is fuelling Aussie optimism. A little over a year ago no one took any notice of Pocock, Will Genia and Quade Cooper (two new additions to the Wallaby back line), yet now that trio, each 22 years old and brimming with invention and attitude, have a dozen or so caps behind them and are inked in for the big games. Factor in the experience of Giteau with 78 caps, Elsom with 49 and Benn Robinson, who has 31, all sitting comfortably in the 25-27 age bracket, and it is easy to see why many consider that Australia are set fair over the next 18 months or so.

That’s the positive spin. The flip side is that there are weaknesses for England to exploit, and they lie in Australia’s current rash of injuries and in the knowledge that Deans and his men have yet to acquire the winning habit.

Australia, under the great John Eales, seemed to take an almost masochistic delight in winning Tests from the most disadvantageous of positions, often away from home and often in the final minutes of the contest. It was as if Eales’s mob could only get really excited when the pressure was at its most excruciating.

This Wallaby squad are not of that stature. Apart from a successful opening spell in 2008 when he took over, Deans has yet to win four games on the bounce in his last 23 attempts. Australia might be extravagantly talented, but, as Scotland proved, they can be rattled, and they do not win the matches they ought to.

That occasional flakiness and injuries to some key players after a gruelling Super 14 campaign should ensure a tight Test. Genia is a doubt, and Robinson’s absence with a broken arm is a significant loss, undermining a scrummage which was once little better than a bad joke, but which has improved hugely when he is installed at loosehead. As Leicester and Toulouse have demonstrated in recent weeks, scrummaging, provided it is refereed with due deference to the side doing the damage, can turn important matches.

Too much to expect that an England scrum, with Andrew Sheridan at home crocked, can wreak the havoc against Australia it has done so often in the past? Probably. But if it doesn’t, if the forwards don’t command a healthy chunk of first phase possession as well as winning the majority of the collisions, England could be on the wrong end of a pasting.

The England team to play the Australian Barbarians on Tuesday, effectively an Australia A team, will be announced Monday.

The Telegraph, London