Most Stormers supporters are fuming about their one winger’s mistake that lead to a Sharks try last weekend. A high tackle in last years Currie Cup semi-final also springs to mind. Statistics once again make for interesting reading and some comparisons are made between the Stormers and a Bulls winger.
We all know by now that stats can very often tell a story that is widely regarded as a not so true reflection of the truth…
What’s your verdict ?
Stephen Nell for sport24
Sireli Naqelevuki may be despised by the Cape rugby public at times, but statistics that measure the wings’ performances in this year’s Super 14 place him above Bryan Habana in key performance areas.
Stormers backline coach Robbie Fleck also believes that Naqelevuki wins more games for the Cape side than he loses for them.
The statistics were sourced independently from Stormers management after Sport24 decided to examine Naqelevuki’s performances. This follows Saturday’s blunder against the Sharks with which a crucial converted try was conceded just before half-time. The Sharks won 20-14.
Naqelevuki has played 677 minutes against the 834 of Habana in this year’s Super 14 and is leading the Springbok hero on many fronts in spite of less game time.
And, believe it or not, he has made fewer errors than Habana!
The statistics by Verusco measure, among other things, tackles made and missed, turnovers won in the tackle, metres gained after first contact with a defender, line breaks, penalties conceded and errors.
However, Habana often impresses in areas that are not measured by statistics. This includes his work-rate off the ball, chasing of kicks and limiting the options of opponents out wide with his defence.
He is also better in the air than Naqelevuki and communicates better on the field.
The idea with the statistical comparison was not to play one wing off against the other, but to remove the emotion from the Naqelevuki debate and provide the facts.
And the fact is that Naqelevuki has generally played very well this year.
His performance against the Hurricanes at Newlands appeared to get him forgiveness for the high tackle on the Blue Bulls’ Jaco Pretorius that cost Western Province a place in last year’s Currie Cup final.
However, the mistake against the Sharks undid some of the good work and was untimely.
In the context of the match it happened at a critical time and coming a week before the game against the Bulls it led to renewed anxiety among rugby writers and fans about what happened in the Currie Cup semi-final.
Naqelevuki is likely to lose his place in the Stormers’ starting line-up for Saturday’s match against the Bulls at Newlands.
Joe Pietersen, Gio Aplon and Bryan Habana are likely to make up the back three.
However, the Stormers may still decide to include Naqelevuki in the squad of 22. He is still highly regarded by team management and team-mates.
“Sireli is huge for us. He wins more games than he loses for us,” said Fleck.
Sport24 also obtained statistics on star Bulls wing Gerhard van den Heever and we place it next to that of Habana and Naqelevuki.
“He plays a crucial role on attack and the players around him are very comfortable with him in the team. He realises that he didn’t play well against the Sharks, but neither did the other players.
“It was not Sireli’s mistake that cost us the match. It was the 25 handling errors that we made. We could not gain any momentum or get any attacking shape.”
Wing statistics for the Super 14:
Total minutes played: Bryan Habana 834, Sireli Naqelevuki 677, Gerhard van den Heever 928.
Tackles made: Habana 44 (3 in which he assisted a team-mate), Naqelevuki 55 (14 assists), Van den Heever 36 (3 assists).
Tackles missed: Habana 13, Naqelevuki 7, Van den Heever 9.
Turnovers won in the tackle: Habana 2, Naqelevuki 4, Van den Heever 6.
Ball carries: Habana 64, Naqelevuki 98, Van den Heever 51.
Metres won after contact with first defender: Habana 416, Naqelevuki 741, Van den Heever 333.
Line breaks: Habana 10, Naqelevuki 14, Van den Heever 10.
Off-loads: Habana 9, Naqelevuki 6, Van den Heever 2.
Ball handled: Habana 112, Naqelevuki 121, Van den Heever 83.
Penalties conceded: Habana 9, Naqelevuki 6, Van den Heever 3.
Errors: Habana 24, Naqelevuki 18, Van den Heever 14.
Tries scored: Habana 4, Naqelevuki 3, Van den Heever 8
Statistics by Verusco
So let it rip, this should be interesting !!!!
According to these stats Van den Heever are the superior of the lot… 😆
So just like Big Joke, Schalk Britz, Ricky Januarie and a host of other players a move to the WP is career damaging.
No, Blouste and Loosie, nice try though, if my eyes does not deceive me, only three out of 12 stats favours Van den Heever above all, and taken into account that he had more game-time, it’s not surprising…go fish…
BTW Loosie, Schalk earned Springbok Colours while at WP, Big Joke and Ricky well, weren’t necessarily as great as reported.
Saint, where did I mention Van Den Heever?
I merely noted that history is repeating itself………….a move to the WP seems to be career suicide.
The way Naqelevuki plays:
He run onto the pitch.
The game starts.
Naqelevuki makes a tackle.
Naqelevuki gets up.
Final whistle blows.
Zero mistakes made, statistically great.
Yes Loosehead. Like it has been a career suicide for Anton van Zyl, Tiaan Liebenberg (originally from the Cheetahs), Jaques Fourie (Especially after last week), Duane Vermeulen, Peter Grant (cause lets face it, he would never have featured at the Sharks) and Jantjies, who made his comeback to the Boks before he fooked up his leg last year.
Oh wait, it wasn’t.
And no matter how good or bad the team is performing, no body told Big Joke to follow his party lifestyle or Bricky to pick clear out the Newlands spur after every game.
And WP/Stormers were really bad for legends of the past decade like Jean Div and Burger, to mention but the latest.
STATS NEVER LIE!
But then again, they don’t show the magnitude of the blunders he makes when he does make them, and THATS the difference.
There is nothing wrong with statistics as a measuring instrument as such. Statistics produce unreliable information due to the incorrect application there off.
In above case statistics are used to compare three players. Nowhere has these three players faced the exact the same situation on a rugby field. Nowhere do I see corrected data to account for that variable.
To compare data one has to compare apples with apples. In above case it is apples with bananas.
@ 7, myself.
Sorry LH, was netnou net so bietjie bedonnerd.
The Saint…
What more do you want ?
Van den Heever played the most, yet made the least amount of errors and scored the most tries !!!
Voila !!!
Lekker om ‘n Bul te wees 😉
Only thing I dont agree with is that it does not explain the situations in which Kakelevuki made the errors..
Just another interesting piece of information.
McCabe will be shooting to play all 1,040 minutes of the regular season.
Counting games played so far, maximum game time is 960 minutes. GvdH played 928 minutes. Thus he lost only 32 minutes game time, 7 due to a yellow card. There was very little rest for him.
More importantly, the game plans of Bulls and Stormers are very different and this has the largest effect on wing performance.
These stats, although interesting, are meaningless when comparing wings.
14 – Agree, it is obvious that the Stormers use Nagvoelvokki as a strike runner a lot. Habana has a totaly different role.
For example we compare Flyhalf A with Flyhalf B.
A’s captain only allow kicks at goal when he is feels very certain it is within his Flyhalf’s reach, hence Flyhalf A’s succesrate is 90%.
B’s captain orders his Flyhalf to kick every possible penalty, irrespective the difficulty, hence his succes rate is only 80%.
Statistically Flyhalf A is better than Flyhalf B, but in reality Morne Steyn is a much better goalkicker than Peter Grant. 😉
16 – Thats why Frans Steyn had such a low goal kicking record as bok. He always kicked from 50+ meters out.
Someone is trying to blow some smoke up someone else’s arse here.
1.Just take missed tackles- One guy can miss 5 and the opposition scores 5 tries. The other misses 10 and they lead to two tries being scored. Who is better?
2.Meters gained after first contact- A big guy like Naq will tend to try and bounce his opponent by instinct instead of trying to beat him for pace and with a step, like Habs or vdH. Who is better- Naq, who makes immediate contact and then racks up the meters measured from there or the other two who mostly score untouched?
ETC, ETC, ETC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Fleckies stats tell him F-all, because5 Naq blunders can cost him a season, while 20 Habs blunders might not even cost him a single game!
Evers heard of “different strokes”?
Same with the loosies- Go as far back as you want. You get the grinders and the shiners.
TaKe Jan Boland Coetzee vs Rob Louw- classic example from the Province camp. The former you hardly ever saw in a game because he loved burrowing at the bottom of the rucks in the underworld, while Louw loved running with the ball. That doesn’t mean that Louw didn’t do his job or was less effective- he was just different, with different skillsets and different value to add. In the same breath, Coetzee wasn’t hiding in the rucks, he was contesting and adding value. But they are both revered.
The secret is finding balance in your loosies, and to have them compliment one another. Same with the wings and every other combination within the team. And the only measure of what works best is the scoreboard, because you cannot simulate match situations. All of which is why we play the game. It is a team sport, a combination sport, so when individuals stand out too much, for me there is an imbalance. Hence my problem with indiviaduals like Spies, Deysel and the like. They tend to focus on what they do best and “like”, but they overdo that and become one-gaited ponies who do that one thing very well and the rest when they are in the right place at the right time.
So something has to give. It creates defensive vacuums in the play which the opponents can exploit, and takes away the element of surprise and makes your attack predictable, which is a big problem for the Bulls and the Sharks, and a lesser problem for the Stormers only because their 6,7 and 8 are very similar in playing style and skillsets. But if you have to split that combo due to injury or rotation, it will be an equally big problem and might even catch them out completely as a result.
Stormers missed Habs on Saturday. Think they will start with Aplon and Habs this week and have the Fiji on the bench. Remember Naqelevuki has played well this year for Stormers.
Yes that was a botch up on Saturday that got Ruan a try. He messed up for Stormers to lose to Bulls in the semi of the CC. Still think they need him.
BlueBeard
This article comes straight out of the horses mouth, their own beloved Fleckie.
I don’t really agree with it but it was just put up to get the Stoempies supporters panties in a knot a bit 🙂
Bit of banter I suppose.
I must say however that you gave a very good explanation to why one can not really read anything into these stats.
Good luck Stormpies for the saturday clash !!! 😆
Condolences to the families of the people who died in this mornings plane crash @ tripoli. Plane was from Joburg, so their sure was some South Africans. 105 dead according to reports. 🙁
21 – Just heard. Very sad that.
Condolences to the family of the people who died on that plan crash this morning.
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