We finally get to the semi-finals in this, the world’s greatest Franchise Competition in Rugby Union.

The matches are as follows:

Both semi-finals are in South Africa, a testament to the domination by the 2 top SA teams, but in the Crusaders and Waratahs the 2 South African teams have worthy adversaries and as you’ll gather from the predictions below, the matches can go either way.

The only logical way to analise the games would be to consider recent form, home advantage, the differing playing styles of the respective teams, match weariness, travel factors, defensive patterns…. and gut feel.

Log position now means didly squat, it is now about the teams who performs best on game day!

Well, enough pondering, time to get down to business.

Bulls vs Crusaders:

The Bulls host the Crusaders at “home” in the unfamiliar Orlando Stadium, Soweto at 17:00 SA Time.

The Bulls have chosen a run-on team with 14 players who have previously won the Super 14. The forwards are strong and a tight knit bunch, it is however in the backline where doubt exists whether outside centre (Jaco Pretorius) and right wing (Jaco van der Westhuyzen) can contain the red-hot Crusaders backline and wings.

Surely the Bulls have learnt from the recent encounter agaist the Crusaders that they cannot afford to allow the Crusaders so much space and overlapping players out wide and have worked on ways to shift much better on backline defence.

The whoo-haa which is made about the possible loss of momentum by the Bulls resulting from the Buls resting 14 players is to my mind a total over exaggeration of the situation, unless the Bulls frontline players just sat on their thumbs in the rest perid, which I doubt!

Home advantage will still suit the Bulls down to a tee, the fact that it is Orlando and not Pretoria does not mean that the Stadium will be less blue and in fact the uniqueness of Orlando might just boost the Bulls further, by seeing how many more South Africans now support the Bulls than before. I see the Orlando situation as a positive rather than a negative.

Say what you want about the Bulls, but they have shown clear BMT in recent years and have dominated the last 2 home semi-finals against the Crusaders, in fact in both those games they have totally outplayed the Crusaders on the day, with much the same Bulls squad as will take the field this weekend.

The Buls frailties lie in defence out wide in the backline… nowhere else.

The Crusaders is the all-time great Super Rugby team, by far, but this year’s crop is not of the same standard as Crusaders teams of old, of that there is very little doubt in my mind!

They have an excellent backline and have hit their straps in recent weeks and they play a tactical game plan whih could easily unlock the Bulls on the weekend. They are led by one of the best captains world rugby has ever seen and there is a quiet determination and resolve in this team.

The travel factor must be an issue which will affect the Crusaders, having had to travel back from SA to Christchurch barely 2 weeks ago, then playing a very tough match there and then being subjected to travel all the way back to SA. This situation is very similar to the momentum factor the Bulls face, I think the effects of travel on this seasoned team will be very limited and really not worth mentioning.

Coupled to the travel factor however is the altitude factor and the fact that they play in a cauldron which will be seething with blue maniacs.

I believe the total sum of these factors is what will be paramount in my prediction on the match, that and of course the Referee-factor. We have Stuart Dickenson officiating in this match, which in itself makes any form of prediction a lottery.

OK, balls to the wall…. I predict a very, very narrow win by the Bulls…. Bulls by 5.

Bulls Semi-final record against the Crusaders
23 May 2009 Semi Bulls v Crusaders 36-23 Pretoria
12 May 2007 Semi Bulls v Crusaders 27-12 Pretoria
20 May 2006 Semi Bulls v Crusaders 15-35 Christchurch

Last Five Results
07 May 2010 Bulls v Crusaders 40-35 Pretoria – Bulls won
23 May 2009 Semi Bulls v Crusaders 36-23 Pretoria – Bulls won
03 Apr 2009 Bulls v Crusaders 13-16 Christchurch
22 Feb 2008 Bulls v Crusaders 19-54 Pretoria
12 May 2007 Semi Bulls v Crusaders 27-12 Pretoria – Bulls won

Teams:

Bulls: 15. Zane Kirchner, 14. Jaco van der Westhuyzen, 13. Jaco Pretorius, 12. Wynand Olivier, 11. Francois Hougaard, 10. Morne Steyn, 9. Fourie du Preez, 8. Pierre Spies, 7. Dewald Potgieter, 6. Deon Stegmann, 5. Victor Matfield (c), 4. Danie Rossouw, 3. Werner Kruger, 2. Gary Botha, 1. Gurthro Steenkamp.
Replacements: 16. Bandise Maku, 17. Bees Roux, 18. Flip van der Merwe, 19. Derick Kuün, 20. Jacques-Louis Potgieter, 21. Stephan Dippenaar, 22. Pedrie Wannenburg.

Crusaders: 15. Colin Slade, 14. Sean Maitland, 13. Robert Fruean, 12. Daniel Bowden, 11. Zac Guildford, 10. Dan Carter, 9. Andy Ellis, 8. Kieran Read, 7. Richie McCaw (Captain), 6. George Whitelock, 5. Sam Whitelock, 4. Brad Thorn, 3. Owen Franks, 2. Ti`i Paulo, 1. Ben Franks.
Replacements: 16. Daniel Perrin, 17. Wyatt Crockett, 18. Chris Jack, 19. Thomas Waldrom, 20. Kahn Fotuali`i, 21. Tim Bateman, 22. Jared Payne

Match Officials:
Referee: Stuart Dickinson
Assistant referees: Jonathan Kaplan, Reuben Rossouw
Television match official: Johann Meuwesen
Timekeeper: Albert Mocke

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Stormers vs Waratahs:

 The Stormers host the Waratahs at Newlands, Cape Town at 19:10 SA Time.

If anything, this semi-final is more difficult to predict than the previous one!

The Stormers have the wonderful advantage to host the Waratahs at their traditional home ground, which will be full to the brim with fervent Stormers supporters.

The Stormers have shown this year that they have very few weaknesses and that they are the best defensive unit in the competition. Consistency in selection has stood them in good stead and this well balanced team boasts quite a number of players who have really stood up to be counted and which will earn a number of them National caps later in the year.

For once the frailties in the team and game plan is almost invisible, except if you play against them like the Sharks did barely 2 weeks ago, something the Waratahs are quite capable of doing.

The Stormers front row is solid, the locks potent, the loosies sublime… this makes for one hell of a forwards pack. Earlier in the season we said that the halfback pairing was suspect, well this is no longer the case and in midfield and in the back 3 they have some of the world’s best game breakers.

Inexperience in playing in Super 14 semi-final conditions is a weakness, but the seasoned Bokke in their midst would most probably be able to help the team focus in this regard. Their other weakness is that they seem to start most matches like a house on fire and then fizzle out more and more as a game goes on – this was seen AGAIN against the Bulls B-Team this past weekend, considering that they won the 1st half battle 28 / 3 and only scraped the 2nd half battle by 10 / 7.

The Waratahs are the clear underdogs in all discussions I’ve heard, but one must remember that this team is nowhere near the team which played the Stormers very early in the season, they are now composed, clinical and have embraced the new Law Variations fully.

They have the ability to front up better than most in the forwards and have a backline which can rip you to shreds at the slightest mistake.

The travel factor and playing away from home is against them and even though they certainly possess the whinge-factor too, they will not stand back for the Stormers.

Depending whether the Bulls wins or loses in the other semi, the Waratahs could also play for a home final against the Crusaders, in which case they will be even more focussed.

Well, how do I predict for this one…. personal loyalty from my side and home ground wins the prediction battle….. Stormers by 5.

Last Five results:
20 Feb 2010 Stormers v Waratahs 27-6 Cape Town – Stormers won
04 Apr 2009 Stormers v Waratahs 6-12 Sydney
10 May 2008 Stormers v Waratahs 13-13 Cape Town – Draw
17 Mar 2007 Stormers v Waratahs 16-10 Sydney – Stormers won
18 Feb 2006 Stormers v Waratahs 26-32 Cape Town

Teams:

Stormers: 15. Joe Pietersen,14. Gio Aplon,13. Jaque Fourie,12. Juan De Jongh,11. Bryan Habana,10. Peter Grant ,9. Dewaldt Duvenage,8. Duane Vermeulen,7 Francois Louw,6. Schalk Burger (C),5. Andries Bekker ,4. Adriaan Fondse,3. Brok Harris,2. Tiaan Liebenberg ,1. Wicus Blaauw.
Replacements: 16. Deon Fourie,17. Eusebio Guinazu,18. Anton Van Zyl,19. Pieter Louw,20. Ricky Januarie,21. Willem De Waal,22. Tim Whitehead.

Waratahs: 15. Kurtley Beale , 14. Lachie Turner , 13. Rob Horne , 12. Tom Carter , 11. Drew Mitchell , 10. Berrick Barnes , 9. Luke Burgess , 8. Ben Mowen , 7. Phil Waugh (c) , 6. Patrick McCutcheon , 5. Kane Douglas , 4. Dean Mumm , 3. Al Baxter , 2. Tatafu Polota-Nau , 1. Dan Palmer.
Replacements: 16. Damien Fitzpatrick 17. Jeremy Tilse , 18. Chris Thomson , 19. Dave Dennis , 20. Josh Holmes , 21. Daniel Halangahu , 22. Rory Sidey.

Match Officials:
Referee: Mark Lawrence
Assistant referees: Marius Jonker, Cobus Wessels
Assessor: Shaun Veldsman
Timekeeper: Paul Ackermann