Finally, the EPIC Final South Africans have been waiting for! North vs South, Good vs Evil, Bulls vs Stormers!
To make predictions for this final is not easy, here’s how I approach the subject….
I will look at some key factors, namely:
- Venue and Location
- Differing Styles of play
- Experience
- Altitude and weather
- Attitude
- Referee Influence
- History between the teams
- Coaches and Preparation
- Depth
- Gut Feel
1. Venue and Location:
Orlando Stadium, Soweto, the historic venue of this Final is as close as both Teams will come to playing the Final in a neutral venue. However the venue will have more positives to offer the Bulls than it will for the Stormers…
In the first instance the Bulls have now already played at Orlando once.
Secondly, the crowd will be stacked with more Bulls supporters than Stormers supporters.
Thirdly, the Vuvuzelas will be blasting, now known to the Bulls but still quite a foreign factor for the Stormers.
2. Differing Styles of play:
The Stormers offer a better defensive record for the season, whereas the Bulls have shown that they are quite able to dismantle the tightest of defensive structures.
I somehow feel that the Bulls are slightly better off in the front row and therefore also in the Tight Five combination, with the Bulls renowned for their prowess in the line-outs and the tight phases.
The backrow forwards battle will see a gigantic battle between a more classical Loosie Combo of the Bulls (pure fetcher, traditional blindsider and specialist No 8) compared to the Stormers trio where the flankers are the same type of hard running and hard tackling players, assisted by a very good traditional No 8. The battle for the ground ball and ruck and maul success will be of utmost imporance in this game… and the dicipline shown here as well as referee interpretations might swing the game either way.
All six backrow forwards have excelled this year but Schalk Burger and Francois Louw’s outstanding form this year might see them shade this department of the game.
Behind the scrum, Fourie du Preez should have the wood over Dewaldt Duvenage and his tactical prowess and game breaking ability favours the Bulls substantially, not that Dewaldt Duvenage is average by any means.
At flyhalf we sit with the No 1 and No 2 flyhalves in South Africa, possibly with Morné Steyn being the better tactical and goal kicker whereas Peter Grant might be the better attacking flyhalf. This will be a battle within a battle, something I’m looking forward to.
At inside centre there is not much to choose between Wynand Olivier and Juan de Jongh, except that Wynand has more experience on his side at inside centre. If there is a frailty in Stormers defence it might just be here, in the channel between flyhalf and inside centre, where Wynand will test the Stormers.
At outside centre, Jaque Fourie is the master and Jaco Pretorius will have his hands full to contain Jaque.
Defence out wide is where the Bulls are suspect and Gio Aplon and Bryan Habana are 2 of the world’s best in exposing this weakness, however in Francois Hougaard and Gerhard van den Heever the Bulls have excellent finishers who will also test Bryan and Gio to their limits.
In the last vestage, both Zane Kirchner and Joe Pietersen are solid under the high ball and join the attack well.
3. Experience:
The Bulls have 13 players in their run-on team who have already played in a Super 14 Final and the Bulls have 9 men who will compete for their 3rd Super 14 winners medal.
In addition, the Bulls abound with current Springboks, many of whom have tasted World Cup glory and Tri Nations glory.
The Stormers have one man, an ex Bull, who have tasted Super 14 glory, Bryan Habana… but the Stormers are a team with enough old hands to ensure that a lack of experience is not too much of an issue, so they should not be found like deer in the headlights on the day.
4. Altitude and weather:
Altitude favours the Bulls, although less than it did playing the Crusaders. More Stormers are used to playing at altitude at a regular basis in SA.
The weather should be good, a dry field, a good pitch… this make perfect rugby weather.
5. Attitude:
Mental preparedness and attitude will be THE deciding factor this weekend! Who wants this game more, who will play well beyond what is expected of them… only time will tell.
6. Referee Influence:
Let’s hope the Referee plays an unbiased game as facilitator, is clear in his application of the Laws and is not a cause for bitching and moaning afterwards.
The Bulls should be more worried about Craig Joubert than the Stormers would be, simply because the 2 games the Bulls lost in the Super 14 to other Franchises (not counting Bulls B’s loss to the Stormers) were both blown by Craig Joubert, the same man who will adjudicate this Final.
7. History between the Teams:
North vs South has always been the toughest contests in rugby in South Africa, sorry Sharks, Cheetahs and Lions… that is the case!
In recent years, the Bulls have had the clear advantage over the Stormers and the Stormers have endured some severe beatings since the 75-14 demolition on 14 May 2005.
There was the 43 / 10 whipping in 2006, the 49 / 12 spanking in 2007 against the Stormers and two lessor losses for the Stormers in 2008 and 2009.
The Stormers have however shed their Light Five tag, have far more balance in the team, so history is just that… history.
These teams will aim to write their own history and what happened in the past will be more important to supporters than for the players on the pitch.
8. Coaches and preparation:
The Bulls tried and tested coaching staff have a Super 14 win in their books already and is the same as in 2009. A few very short years ago Frans Ludeke was questioned, by myself as well…. but this year I’ve had the pleasure of talking to these gentlemen myself, seeing how well they’ve planned, how well they have man-managed their whole squad and how solid their structures are. All I can say here is, the coaching team who wants to wrestle the trophy away from Frans and hiss staff better have steel in their veins.
On the other side, Alistair Coetzee and his support staff have grown in stature and Alistair is reknowned for being the ultimate man-manager himself, ably supported by Mathew Proudfoot who has certainly managed to turn a struggling Stormers forward pack around. To my mind the only doubt left is in the inability to score many tries this season, favouring defence over attack. This will either prove to be a stroke of genius or a fatal flaw in the Final.
Both teams will be at full strength, no injuries to speak of, so the teams should almost be equally fresh. The Bulls additional rest week 2 weeks ago should stand them in good stead.
9. Depth:
A lot of pundits have indicated that the Bulls bench is stronger than the Stormers bench.
To me this is a bit of a falacy….
In Deon Fourie, Anton van Zyl, Pieter Louw and Whitehead the Stormers have able replacements, almost as good as those players in the starting berths, however one man on the Bulls bench, Flip van der Merwe, would have started the game in any of the other 13 Franchises and would canter into most International sides at the drop of a hat.
10. Gut Feel:
Ahhhh, the good old subjective measure of things… hehehehe
Here the Stormers would mostly be convinced that their team will take it, and similarly most Bulls supporters will be convinced that the Bulls will take it.
My Gut Feel tells me that the game will be like a Test match. It will be brutal…
My Gut Feel also tells me that the Stormers will start the game at a pace and will attempt to work the ball wide to expose the Bulls frailty out wide.
My Gut Feel also tells me that the Bulls will get stronger and stronger as the match progresses and that the Stormers initial verve will abate as the match progresses… just like we have seen all season.
So, should the Bulls contain the Stormers or level peg going into the last 40 minutes on the score board, my Gut Feel says that they should win.
If however the Stormers build a healthy lead before the break, my Gut Feel says that they will be that one Team against whom the Bulls would not be able to come back from far behind to close the game out.
OK, here we go… balls to the wall time, time to make a call as to how the final will end up.
But if I can predict, so can you… and anybody who wishes to rubish my prediction better place his prediction as well as his reasons on the line, right here, right now!
I very hesitantly predict, considering all of the above, that the Bulls should retain their title…. Bulls by 5.
Teams:
Bulls: 15. Zane Kirchner, 14. Gerhard van den Heever, 13. Jaco Pretorius, 12. Wynand Olivier, 11. Francois Hougaard, 10. Morné Steyn, 9. Fourie du Preez, 8. Pierre Spies, 7. Dewald Potgieter, 6. Deon Stegmann, 5. Victor Matfield (c), 4. Danie Rossouw, 3. Werner Kruger, 2. Gary Botha, 1. Gurthrö Steenkamp.
Replacements: 16. Bandise Maku, 17. Bees Roux, 18. Flip van der Merwe, 19. Derick Kuün, 20. Jacques-Louis Potgieter, 21. Jaco van der Westhuyzen, 22. Pedrie Wannenburg.
Stormers: 15. Joe Pietersen, 14. Gio Aplon, 13. Jaque Fourie, 12. Juan De Jongh, 11. Bryan Habana, 10. Peter Grant, 9. Dewaldt Duvenage, 8. Duane Vermeulen, 7. Francois Louw, 6. Schalk Burger (c), 5. Andries Bekker, 4. Adriaan Fondse, 3. Brock Harris, 2. Tiaan Liebenberg, 1. Wicus Blaauw.
Replacements: 16. Deon Fourie, 17. JC Kritzinger, 18. Anton Van Zyl, 19. Pieter Louw, 20. Ricky Januarie, 21. Willem De Waal, 22. Tim Whitehead.
Super 14 final Match Officials:
Referee: Craig Joubert
Assistant referees: Cobus Wessels, Christie du Preez
Ass. Refs 3 and 4: Pro Legoete, Lourens van der Merwe
Reserve referee: Mark Lawrence
Television match official: Shaun Veldsman
Timekeeper: Gabriel Pappas
gbs @ 88
nee boet
syt BLOU aan!!
😆
Q: Why do people tend to hate Stormers Rugby players / fans on sight?
A: Because it saves time.
Q: What do you get when you put 28 Stormers cheerleaders in one room?
A: A full set of teeth.
Q: You go to a cockfight. How do you know if a Stormers fan is there?
A: He’s the one with a duck
Q. You’re trapped in a room with a tiger, a rattlesnake and an Stormers rugby fan. You have a gun with two bullets. What do you do?
A. Shoot the Stormers fan – twice.
Woman : Oh James. Last night was wonderful… but I have something to tell you – I used to be a hooker…
Man : Whoa…Wow. Thank you for your honesty. But the past is the past. It doesn’t matter what you did. In fact I find it quite erotic. Tell me about it.
Woman : Erm… OK. My name was Schalk and I played for the Stormers
What do you call a Stormers supporter walking around with a bottle of
champagne after the game on Saturday?
A waiter!
Q)What’s the difference between a dead dog and a dead Stomrers supporter?
A)There are skid marks in front of a dead dog…
Q)What’s the difference between OJ Simpson and the Stomers?
A)OJ Simpson had a more credible defence…
Q)What’s the difference between a jet engine and the Stormers?
A)A jet engine eventually stops whining…
Q)Did you hear about the South African who was found dead in an Stormers jersey?
A)The police had to dress him up in women’s underwear in order to save his family from the embarrassment.
Q)Did you hear that the SA Post Office has had to recall their latest stamps with pictures of Stomrers players on them?
A)People couldn’t figure out which side to spit on.
Two boys are playing cricket on a field in Pretoria , when one is attacked by a vicious Rottweiler. Thinking quickly, the other boy took his cricket bat and managed to wedge it down the dog’s collar and twist, luckily breaking the dog’s neck and stopping its attack. A reporter who was strolling by sees the incident, and rushes over to interview the boy. “Young Bulls Fan Saves Friend From Vicious Animal,” he starts writing in his notebook. “But I’m not a Bulls fan,” the little hero replied. “Sorry, since we are in Pretoria , I just assumed you were,” said the reporter and starts again. ”Lions Fan Rescues Friend from Horrific Attack,…” he continued writing in his notebook. “I’m not a Lions fan either!”, the boy said.” “I assumed everyone in Pretoria was either for the Bulls or Lions. So what team DO you root for?” the reporter asked. “I’m a Stormers fan”, the child beamed. The reporter starts a new sheet in his notebook and writes: “Little Fag from Cape Kills Beloved Family Pet.”
@ grootblousmile:
GBS, have you been saving all the old jokes gleaned from ‘The Bulls Christmas Crackers’ box for this occasion!! 😉
Even I have heard of most of those before?
Well re-cycling is very trendy these days!! Heheheheheh
Bulls by 8 by the way, and it looks like I may not beat you on superbru this time!! (Shame)!
Ok I have nothing to do…so let me draw a comparison between the players:
15.
Joe Pietersen / Zane Kirchner
Both are hot property at the moment. Pietersen has the better counter-attacking ability, while Kirchner takes the defence accolades. Both pretty equal in my book.
Bulls: 0
Stormers: 0
14. Gio Aplon / Francois Hougaard
Both scored some impossible tries this season. Aplon, being fearless is better in the air than Hougaard, and also a better defender. Hougaard has some bulk and is difficult to stop, same goes for Aplon as well, the blighter having some magic feet. Hougaard’s hairstyle sucks, but even with a real haircut, Aplon edges this one.
Bulls: 0
Stormers: 1
13. Jacque Fourie / Jaco Pretorius
Enough said.
Bulls: 0
Stormers: 2
12. Juan de Jongh / Werner Olivier
De Jongh has the feet, the step, and a fantastic defensive game. Olivier has the same with some experience added. De Jongh will be better than Olivier in time, but for now.
Bulls: 1
Stormers: 2
11. Bryan Habana / Shadow van den Heever
Habana is the personification of a modern wing. Van den Heever is suspect on defence, and has yet to be tested under the high ball. Raw pace unfortunately, not enough to dethrone the current king.
Bulls: 1
Stormers: 3
10. Peter Grant / Morne Steyn
In my heart I know Grant is worth more to the Stormers than Steyn is to the Bulls. Grant has the second best accuracy in the competition, but Steyn is leading the points. Grant kicked his first 49m goal against the Waratahs, and as thus can probably add about 8 meters with altitude. But Steyn has been doing that for ages. Grant is the better distributor, but we know what Steyn can do. To the current Bok goes the spoils.
Bulls: 2
Stormers: 3
9. Dewaldt Duvenhage / Fourie du Preez
Albeit that Duvenhage is a work in progress, Fourie du Preez is the benchmark.
Bulls: 3
Stormers: 3
8. Duane Vermeulen / Pierre Spies
Spies is described as a freak, but Vermeulen is one determined son of a gun. Statistics gives Vermeulen the nod for his extra work in the loose, which Spies does not do. I tend to agree that Vermeulen has more facets to his game than Spies.
Bulls: 3
Stormers: 4
7. Francois Louw / Dewald Potgieter
Again, Flo is more involved in the game than Potgieter. However, Potgieter has baan running around the field like mad for the Bulls in recent times, chasing every kick, tackling everyone. Both players deserve their call-up.
Bulls: 3
Stormers: 4
6. Schalk Burger is playing the season of his life, poaching, running, passing, running, catching, passing again. Stegmann is a player in the Brussouw mould, a scavenger, but too much in the ref’s sights. If Brussouw wasn’t injured, he’d still be better than Stegmann, but Schalk would anyway be the dominant No. 6 in the country.
Bulls: 3
Stormers: 5
5. Andries Bekker / Victor Matfield
Wow, if we only measure THIS season, Bekker gets the nod, but Matfield is a lock for all pressure occassions. He simply thrives in finals. Bekker is most probably the BEST lock-forward on the planet at the moment, but horses for courses. I can’t believe I am doing this but:
Bulls: 4
Stormers: 5
4. Adriaan Fondse / Danie Rossouw
Both hardworking, uncompromising players. Fondse perhaps losing less ball in contact, but other than that nothing to choose. Had Fondse stayed with the Bulls, HE would probably have been facing off against the Stormers today. The Bulls most potent No. 4 lock sitting on the bench at the moment.
Bulls: 4
Stormers: 5
3. Brok Harris / Werner Kruger
Harris maybe one of the seasons revelation, but has been struggling off late, however, defensively sound and well represented across the field. Kruger more a solid scrumming type prop, and not nearly as mobile as Harris. Both props however, will probably succumb to their respective opponents.
Bulls: 4
Stormers: 5
2. Tiaan Liebenberg / Gary Botha
Gary Botha has been a revelation in this, his comeback year. Accurate at line-out time, marshalling the scrum, and like a terrier in the loose. Liebenberg has all of the same qualities, but adds to his repertoir some bullocking runs, and excellent interplay with the other backs and forwards. DIE BERG VAN LIEBEN deserves some respect….NOW!
Bulls: 4
Stormers: 6
1. Wicus Blaauw / Guthro Steenkamp
Blaauw has been praised in the Stormers ranks, but I remain sceptic about his attitude, and aptitude. Should dominate Kruger though. Steenkamp however has been one of the standouts this season, he is everywhere, and his scrumming improves by the day. Should initially struggle, but can probably get the better of Harris in the end.
Bulls: 5
Stormers: 6
There you have it, on paper, accoring to me, the Stormers have one up on the Bulls, but anything can happen on matchday, we all know that. All depends on which team pitches up.
@ The Saint:
Haal af jou Stormers brilletjies…
Broken Harris gaan sy kop na die game uit sy gat moet trek…
Jy kan nie eers Sten en Grant se naam in een sin noem nie…
Aplon bo Hougaard, opinie maar glo nie jou weergawe is korrek nie…
@ grootblousmile:ag nee man sies…dis darem maar n lelike gesig
So, daar het ons dit nou volgens Saint, die Stormers is die beter span..
BWAHAHAHAHAHA !!!!!!!!!
Julle gaan julle gatte sien…Kyk maar more…
Blouste
Kom ek stel dit so, Aplon sal Hougaard kan stop, Hougaard gaan Aplon nie eers sien nie.
Ek is stilletjies positief. Ek kan net nie sien dat die Stormers in die span se heel beste seisoen ooit, alles laat val vir die final nie.
Ons kan verloor, definitief, maar ek twyfel of ons ons gatte gaan sien.
94@ The Saint:
A team is not as good as the sum of it’s individuals, but rather as good as the sum of the cohesion of the Team itself….
So says GBS…
@ The Saint:
Who is Werner Olivier?
Silly ( . )( . )
@ The Saint:
Julle gaan, ek se jou en as ek verkeerd is sal ek dit kom erken.
Net vir die rekord, hoe ver moet ons wen dat ons dit kan klassifiseer as julle het julle gatte gesien.
@ grootblousmile:
Yup, that’s true…now…which team had the most forward/back interplay this season, the least discipline issues, and the best cover/supportive defense…hmmm?
94: hier is hoe ek dit sien
15) B
14) gelyk
13) S
12) B
11) S
10) B
9) B
8) B
7) gelyk
6) S
5) B
4) B
3) B
2) S
1) B
Bulle se voorspelers gaan deurslag gee, en dan doen FDP en MS die res. Stormers kan nie die Bulle krag teen krag klop nie, hulle sal met ‘n slimmer plan moet kom om dit te doen. Nou hoor ek Rassie het die hele jaar niks gedoen nie, behalwe om ‘n wenplan teen die Bulle uit te dink. Sal more sien of dit gaan werk.
@ Blouste:
Sou se so 10 of meer…
Ek sal ook hier wees as ons verloor.
@ Pam Anderson:
OK, Wynand Olivier…I always mix him up with his lover.
103@ The Saint:
Easy, the Log Leading Bulls did… apart from the defence aspect.
Defence is about all the Stormers were good for….. hehehehe
@ bdb:
Jy laat dit soos ‘n walkover klink.
@ The Saint:
Werner Kruger?
As die Stormers na 15 minute 15-0 voor is, gaan dit ‘n groot stryd afgee. As Bulle egter so vinnig voor is, gaan dit baie moeilik wees vir Stormers om terug te kom.
Ons hoop maar almal saam dat dit nie een of ander omstrede beslissing gaan wees wat die wedstryd gaan bepaal nie.
Ek dink egter nie dit gaan so groot punteverskil wees nie, en sal vir Blouste kom verskoning vra as ek verkeerd is !
@ grootblousmile:
Sorry GBS…you are most definitely wrong there. We had the least yellow cards, AND Andries, Schalk, Flo and Duane have more accumulated meters run with ball after first contact, passes made, advantage gained and linebreaks than the whole Bulls pack.
@ Pam Anderson:
Probably, he likes shy boys…
Any reason why Craig Joubert is handling the match as opposed to Kaplan? JK is after all the most experienced of the Saffa refs.
The Saint wrote:
😆
Ek se weer…Bulle met 12 as ons sukkel !!! 😉
@ Pam Anderson:
SANZAR decision, has to do with teh quality of the season’s games and which ref had the least issues in their game evaluations.
@ The Saint:
Ooohhhh, now you’ve dunnit!
Hoekom blaas Steve Walsh nie die finaal nie ?
110: hoeveel drieë het daardie spelers saam gedruk, teenoor die hoeveelheid drieë wat Spies gedruk het ?
110@ The Saint:
Ag flok Saint…. Look at the Log…. look where the Final is played….. on the Top Team’s home ground!
Look who scored the most tries in the Competition, look who holds the record for most individual points.
What do all your stats prove…. that you have a good side? We know the Stormers are good, that’s the reason they’re playing in the Final.
Your stats prove nothing, these are’nt stats against each other….
The Best TEAM on the day will walk away with the spoils…..
@ The Saint:
OK, but according to the bulls Joubert screws them over, thought the teams would have some say as its an all SA affair.
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