Finally, the EPIC Final South Africans have been waiting for! North vs South, Good vs Evil, Bulls vs Stormers!

To make predictions for this final is not easy, here’s how I approach the subject….

I will look at some key factors, namely:

1. Venue and Location
2. Differing Styles of play
3. Experience
4. Altitude and weather
5. Attitude
6. Referee Influence
7. History between the teams
8. Coaches and Preparation
9. Depth
10. Gut Feel

1. Venue and Location:

Orlando Stadium, Soweto, the historic venue of this Final is as close as both Teams will come to playing the Final in a neutral venue. However the venue will have more positives to offer the Bulls than it will for the Stormers…

In the first instance the Bulls have now already played at Orlando once.

Secondly, the crowd will be stacked with more Bulls supporters than Stormers supporters.

Thirdly, the Vuvuzelas will be blasting, now known to the Bulls but still quite a foreign factor for the Stormers.

2. Differing Styles of play:

The Stormers offer a better defensive record for the season, whereas the Bulls have shown that they are quite able to dismantle the tightest of defensive structures.

I somehow feel that the Bulls are slightly better off in the front row and therefore also in the Tight Five combination, with the Bulls renowned for their prowess in the line-outs and the tight phases.

The backrow forwards battle will see a gigantic battle between a more classical Loosie Combo of the Bulls (pure fetcher, traditional blindsider and specialist No 8) compared to the Stormers trio where the flankers are the same type of hard running and hard tackling players, assisted by a very good traditional No 8. The battle for the ground ball and ruck and maul success will be of utmost imporance in this game… and the dicipline shown here as well as referee interpretations might swing the game either way.

All six backrow forwards have excelled this year but Schalk Burger and Francois Louw’s outstanding form this year might see them shade this department of the game.

Behind the scrum, Fourie du Preez should have the wood over Dewaldt Duvenage and his tactical prowess and game breaking ability favours the Bulls substantially, not that Dewaldt Duvenage is average by any means.

At flyhalf we sit with the No 1 and No 2 flyhalves in South Africa, possibly with Morné Steyn being the better tactical and goal kicker whereas Peter Grant might be the better attacking flyhalf. This will be a battle within a battle, something I’m looking forward to.

At inside centre there is not much to choose between Wynand Olivier and Juan de Jongh, except that Wynand has more experience on his side at inside centre. If there is a frailty in Stormers defence it might just be here, in the channel between flyhalf and inside centre, where Wynand will test the Stormers.

At outside centre, Jaque Fourie is the master and Jaco Pretorius will have his hands full to contain Jaque.

Defence out wide is where the Bulls are suspect and Gio Aplon and Bryan Habana are 2 of the world’s best in exposing this weakness, however in Francois Hougaard and Gerhard van den Heever the Bulls have excellent finishers who will also test Bryan and Gio to their limits.

In the last vestage, both Zane Kirchner and Joe Pietersen are solid under the high ball and join the attack well.

3. Experience:

The Bulls have 13 players in their run-on team who have already played in a Super 14 Final and the Bulls have 9 men who will compete for their 3rd Super 14 winners medal.

In addition, the Bulls abound with current Springboks, many of whom have tasted World Cup glory and Tri Nations glory.

The Stormers have one man, an ex Bull, who have tasted Super 14 glory, Bryan Habana… but the Stormers are a team with enough old hands to ensure that a lack of experience is not too much of an issue, so they should not be found like deer in the headlights on the day.

4. Altitude and weather:

Altitude favours the Bulls, although less than it did playing the Crusaders. More Stormers are used to playing at altitude at a regular basis in SA.

The weather should be good, a dry field, a good pitch… this make perfect rugby weather.

5. Attitude:

Mental preparedness and attitude will be THE deciding factor this weekend! Who wants this game more, who will play well beyond what is expected of them… only time will tell.

6. Referee Influence:

Let’s hope the Referee plays an unbiased game as facilitator, is clear in his application of the Laws and is not a cause for bitching and moaning afterwards.

The Bulls should be more worried about Craig Joubert than the Stormers would be, simply because the 2 games the Bulls lost in the Super 14 to other Franchises (not counting Bulls B’s loss to the Stormers) were both blown by Craig Joubert, the same man who will adjudicate this Final.

7. History between the Teams:

North vs South has always been the toughest contests in rugby in South Africa, sorry Sharks, Cheetahs and Lions… that is the case!

In recent years, the Bulls have had the clear advantage over the Stormers and the Stormers have endured some severe beatings since the 75-14 demolition on 14 May 2005.

There was the 43 / 10 whipping in 2006, the 49 / 12 spanking in 2007 against the Stormers and two lessor losses for the Stormers in 2008 and 2009.

The Stormers have however shed their Light Five tag, have far more balance in the team, so history is just that… history.

These teams will aim to write their own history and what happened in the past will be more important to supporters than for the players on the pitch.

8. Coaches and preparation:

The Bulls tried and tested coaching staff have a Super 14 win in their books already and is the same as in 2009. A few very short years ago Frans Ludeke was questioned, by myself as well…. but this year I’ve had the pleasure of talking to these gentlemen myself, seeing how well they’ve planned, how well they have man-managed their whole squad and how solid their structures are. All I can say here is, the coaching team who wants to wrestle the trophy away from Frans and hiss staff better have steel in their veins.

On the other side, Alistair Coetzee and his support staff have grown in stature and Alistair is reknowned for being the ultimate man-manager himself, ably supported by Mathew Proudfoot who has certainly managed to turn a struggling Stormers forward pack around. To my mind the only doubt left is in the inability to score many tries this season, favouring defence over attack. This will either prove to be a stroke of genius or a fatal flaw in the Final.

Both teams will be at full strength, no injuries to speak of, so the teams should almost be equally fresh. The Bulls additional rest week 2 weeks ago should stand them in good stead.

9. Depth:

A lot of pundits have indicated that the Bulls bench is stronger than the Stormers bench.

To me this is a bit of a falacy….

In Deon Fourie, Anton van Zyl, Pieter Louw and Whitehead the Stormers have able replacements, almost as good as those players in the starting berths, however one man on the Bulls bench, Flip van der Merwe, would have started  the game in any of the other 13 Franchises and would canter into most International sides at the drop of a hat.

10. Gut Feel:

Ahhhh, the good old subjective measure of things… hehehehe

Here the Stormers would mostly be convinced that their team will take it, and similarly most Bulls supporters will be convinced that the Bulls will take it.

My Gut Feel tells me that the game will be like a Test match. It will be brutal…

My Gut Feel also tells me that the Stormers will start the game at a pace and will attempt to work the ball wide to expose the Bulls frailty out wide.

My Gut Feel also tells me that the Bulls will get stronger and stronger as the match progresses and that the Stormers initial verve will abate as the match progresses… just like we have seen all season.

So, should the Bulls contain the Stormers or level peg going into the last 40 minutes on the score board, my Gut Feel says that they should win.

If however the Stormers build a healthy lead before the break, my Gut Feel says that they will be that one Team against whom the Bulls would not be able to come back from far behind to close the game out.

OK, here we go… balls to the wall time, time to make a call as to how the final will end up.

But if I can predict, so can you… and anybody who wishes to rubish my prediction better place his prediction as well as his reasons on the line, right here, right now!

I very hesitantly predict, considering all of the above, that the Bulls should retain their title…. Bulls by 5.

Teams:

Bulls: 15. Zane Kirchner, 14. Gerhard van den Heever, 13. Jaco Pretorius, 12. Wynand Olivier, 11. Francois Hougaard, 10. Morné Steyn, 9. Fourie du Preez, 8. Pierre Spies, 7. Dewald Potgieter, 6. Deon Stegmann, 5. Victor Matfield (c), 4. Danie Rossouw, 3. Werner Kruger, 2. Gary Botha, 1. Gurthrö Steenkamp.
Replacements: 16. Bandise Maku, 17. Bees Roux, 18. Flip van der Merwe, 19. Derick Kuün, 20. Jacques-Louis Potgieter, 21. Jaco van der Westhuyzen, 22. Pedrie Wannenburg.

Stormers: 15. Joe Pietersen, 14. Gio Aplon, 13. Jaque Fourie, 12. Juan De Jongh, 11. Bryan Habana, 10. Peter Grant, 9. Dewaldt Duvenage, 8. Duane Vermeulen, 7. Francois Louw, 6. Schalk Burger (c), 5. Andries Bekker, 4. Adriaan Fondse, 3. Brock Harris, 2. Tiaan Liebenberg, 1. Wicus Blaauw.
Replacements: 16. Deon Fourie, 17. JC Kritzinger, 18. Anton Van Zyl, 19. Pieter Louw, 20. Ricky Januarie, 21. Willem De Waal, 22. Tim Whitehead.

Super 14 final Match Officials:
Referee: Craig Joubert
Assistant referees: Cobus Wessels, Christie du Preez
Ass. Refs 3 and 4: Pro Legoete, Lourens van der Merwe
Reserve referee: Mark Lawrence
Television match official: Shaun Veldsman
Timekeeper: Gabriel Pappas