If the Crusaders players can persuade their jumbled body clocks to forgive them the tortuous regime of the last few weeks, the New Zealanders have a famous victory within their grasp in Soweto this weekend.
It won’t be easy. In fact it will be decidedly tricky. But if anybody can, the Crusaders can – as their stellar record at this stage of the season amply testifies.
The Bulls are a formidable side, not to mention a well rested one. Since these two teams last squared off on May 5 in Pretoria, the Crusaders will have travelled to and from New Zealand and got themselves up for an elimination final round-robin clash against the Brumbies in Christchurch last Friday night.
By contrast the frontline Bulls players were given the final round off, with a second-string side selected to head down the coast and complete what was, for them, a meaningless final fixture against the Stormers.
But was it? It just may be that the Bulls have made a tactical blunder ahead of this third semifinal meeting between these two sides over the last four years. Only time will tell, but despite the foreboding presence of the travel factor five key things tell me Todd Blackadder’s Crusaders can cause an upset in the first of the semifinals at Orlando Stadium when they take on the top qualifiers and defending champions at 3am on Sunday, NZ time.
Here they are:
1. Momentum.
Believe it or not it’s actually on the side of the Crusaders despite their patchy finish to the season. They were the best team on the paddock a fortnight ago when they wound down their unsuccessful tour with a 35-40 defeat notable as much for the outrageous refereeing performance of Marius Jonker as it was for anything spectacular the Bulls did.
The ‘Saders took plenty out of that Loftus match where they played most of the rugby, established the tempo and very much dictated terms for a clash which swung on two or three contentious decisions by Jonker. Then they turned round, off the long trip home, and pretty clinically dealt to a Brumbies side that had the sniff of the semis in their nostrils.
There were signs at the weekend that the Crusaders game had finally gone to the level that Blackadder has been seeking for a while now. Their work, particularly off turnover, was as sharp as it’s been all year and when New Zealand’s best team has its link play and counter game going, they are always tough to beat.
On the other side of the coin the Bulls forsook momentum in favour of resting their top lineup ahead of the semifinals – a tactic fraught with danger. It hasn’t worked in the past – particularly for the Waratahs in 2002 – and it will be interesting to see how the Bulls come out on the back of what was essentially a bye week for their leading players.
2. The Soweto factor.
The Bulls have an awesome record at Loftus Versfeld where they haven’t been beaten in over two years and where they’ve never lost in the Super rugby post-season.
But unfortunately for them, this semi ain’t at their Pretoria fortress, it’s in a soccer stadium in Soweto, because of the looming Fifa World Cup. That changes the playing field significantly.
Any mental blocks the Crusaders may have had over playing at a stadium where they’ve twice been rolled by the Bulls at semifinal time now go out the window.
Instead it’s been notable that the Crusaders team have been embracing the Soweto factor ahead of the match, expressing their excitement at the chance to play in the famous Johannesburg township at a quality venue just a stone’s throw from the brand new Soccer City stadium that will host the World Cup final in a few short weeks.
Loftus may not have held any fears for the ‘Saders, but it certainly presented some bad memories. There will still be a full house of Bulls fans at Orlando Stadium, but that won’t worry the Kiwis a bit as they look to make the most of their scheduling break.
3. They’re due.
Simple as that. The Crusaders have a superb post-season record with this their ninth straight semifinal appearance and their 12th in 13 seasons. Until 2007 they’d never lost a semi, and they responded to that departure (at the hands of the Bulls) by bouncing back to claim title No 7 the following year.
What do you know they lost at the semifinal stage to the Bulls again last year, so if the cycle holds true they should go all the way again in 2010.
But more than just sequencing suggests this could be the Crusaders year. They’re an outfit that have played more playoffs football than anybody in the competition, and they know what’s required at this stage. Plus they tend to learn their lessons. Those two semifinal defeats by the Bulls will be painful reminders of just what it takes to win against this tough side. A fortnight ago showed they’ve got a plan that works. Now they just need to execute it a smidgeon better and get a fairer deal from the man with the whistle.
4. They’ve got a better backline.
Sure, everyone knows rugby wins are forged up front, but both these packs are full of quality individuals and really should cancel each other out. Lineout edge to Bulls, scrum one to Crusaders, the breakdown and loose forward battle should be a beaut.
But the Crusaders’ attack game has found its feet in the nick of time, with Zac Guildford, Sean Maitland, Colin Slade, Dan Carter and, to a lesser degree, Robbie Fruean running into some serious form. The decision to go with Dan Bowden as a second five-eighth also seems to have worked, especially in terms of the distribution and kicking game.
The Bulls, on the other hand, are without their best finisher (van den Heever) to suspension and, let’s face it, have never been renowned for their willingness to shift it through the hands. If the Crusaders can again make this a free-flowing encounter, they will hold the trump cards.
5. Dan Carter.
He’s spent all year making uncharacteristic mistakes and struggling to find his A game. But the last two weeks there have been signs that the world’s best No 10 is coming back to the form that we’ve come to expect from him.
The battle between two fabulous pivots could well decide this clash. Morne Steyn has punished the Crusaders heavily in their recent meetings and Blackadder will stress the need to minimise the chances for this great points-taker to have either shots or pots at goal.
But Steyn does not have the decision-making prowess, nor the running game, of Carter at his best. All season the All Black great has played a strangely off-key tune, but wouldn’t it be typical – and timely – for him to take command now when the stakes are highest.
Steyn is a fine player. But he’s not Carter. Big advantage to the Crusaders.
So there you have it. Five reasons why the Crusaders could win what should be a gripping semifinal. Of course they have to make them count against a side that has fashioned a formidable record of its own of late.
It should be one heck of a semi.
By MARC HINTON – Stuff
83 – Turk, I will be back on the 31st. Leaving Joburg around 12th or so of June and will be in Umhlanga for the Soccer World cup. Will wear my Bafana shirt to the game. Will support our team 100% until they go out. I hope to see them make the 2nd round. Will be proud of them if they do. Then once they out will be supporting Holland as I lived there. If they go out then will support Brazil. Or if any of the African teams are in will support them too.
Going to be really festive here in June. Great looking forward to it. Jeepers time does fly. This time last year was looking forward to the Lions tour here. Now that is just about a year ago already.
En terwyl ons almal hul rugby of sokker geniet, brand die land verder af:
Opskrifte in Beeld vanoggend:
“Rowers skiet wild en wakker in sentrum”
“Gaste kry boer se lyk – Kettings was om die vermoorde se enkels vasgebind”
“Die moordenaar het mnr. Johan Strydom (40) vermoedelik Saterdag omstreeks 13:00 met ’n ysterstaaf by sy werfhek oorval, het lt.kol. Lesego Metsi, polisiewoordvoerder in Noordwes, gesê.
Daarna is hy met met ’n tou agter sy Mazda Drifter-bakkie tot in die pakkamer gesleep.
Volgens Metsi het die moordenaar die deur van die pakkamer daarna toegemaak en met die bakkie en Strydom se selfoon en beursie gevlug.”
puma your holiday plans sucks, you must watch your rugby schedule man.
90 – Super, They better not………hahahahaha. Actually needed to do so much today. Now have to be here. Thought all the paint would would have been finished on Friday. Actually had my house painted complete last year, but with all the rain needed some touch ups and more so than I thought. Have to get it ready for the winter. Too much sun and it dries out the wood etc….. Also want to sell my house soon. So needed to do this before my holiday.
@84 Well said Puma! Our “Black” people are very forgiving and patriotic. We should reciprocate. Hop guys on here won’t be too one-eyed, and look at the big picture. I am not a football fan personally. I live in italy, a football mad country, but hardly ever watch it. However the SWC in SA is a once in a life-time event and can do as much for the country as the RWC. As you say, time to pay it back!
bdb ons worry my maat , gaan jy toi toi saam solidariteit?
93 – Super, I know. I was actually going to Scotland. BUT could not get a flight back. Fully booked cause of the WC. Was going to go to my mates son’s wedding. Also could not use my air miles after the 15th of May. So stupid to have them and can not use them. Then even to pay for a ticket would have been fine but cant get a flight back and the flight back adds onto the price cause it is during the wc. So booked this holiday two months back. The only dates I could get. So took them. After this flights will be tough to get during the soccer world cup. Pity it is during the semi and final. Still hoping it is on there. Really will feel I missed something if I don’t get it there.
Wonder where is Saint, KP and some other Stormer dudes, they are too scared to chat.
I don’t know why when one tries to be positive and hopefull, out comes the terrible crime stories. I get so the moer in bru. We having a nice discussion and out comes debbie downer!
bdb
Dis hartseer en dinge lyk aan die opbou… 😯
Shot Puma!
Really good to hear about your gees for WC2010 and that Portuguese derby has all the makings of a cracker. My wife and I will be catching the Cameroun/Holland game at Green Point.
Really looking forward to. Ke nako!
I think GBS is preparing a momentous post for the momentous 100 gran post. only minutes away
Turkie, I hear you but unfortunatly it’s a reality and one cn not just wish it away…
You say you live in Italy… well I’ll tell you my friend it’s a big and concerning reality over here.
Brutal…are putting it mildly…
TYT
we must sometimes hear it, we hate this , dont worry we wont spend to much time on that subject here
bdb, crime is bad but without wishing it away, do you really want to discuss it here? It has the potential to become political so I would prefer not to go there…
Hou dit Blou, toe man…
Die naweek kan ek weer vi “my” Bulle skree!
96: super, ek wou graag, todat ek gelees het jy moet die dag ‘rooi’ dra, maar ek is mos nie ‘n leeu nie ? 😉
Nee, ernstig: glo nie in al hierdie optogte en dinge nie. Dit spreek nie die wese van die probleem aan nie. Myns insiens lê ons land (wittes, swartes, bruines, pienkes, groenes, geles, ens.) se enigste hoop in ‘n terugkeer na ons Here Jesus en sy Woord. Maar, as ek ons ou landtjie se mense so dophou, wil hul niks van die Here en sy wette weet nie, so nou moet ons maar die pakslae vat, die Here laat nie met Hom spot nie. Soos een ou gesê het: draai of braai nuwe SA !
So gbs
Tell me did I het the 100 000 post ?
bdb
100%
Where ‘s everyone now…busy preparing the drum roll for the 100 000 post thread ?
die 100 000 moet darem n post wees nie net nommers nie
95 – Turk, Think everyone here will support our people in the wc. Plenty supported us in 1995 and in 2007. Now see many coming out to support the Bulls too. Gave me a good feeling to see that. Yes it is time to give back. I have already got my flag flying out my window. We get these little hook on window flags. Have my Bafana shirt too.
I am not big into football, but my DAUGHTER is crazy, crazy about the game. She was in Holland during the 1994 world cup and got into it from there. Has two Italian friends. So supports Italy. But of course she will support SA first until they go out she says she will support Italy.
blouste weet jy hoe naby is ons aan die 100 duisendtal?
Guys, I understand the crime situation. I lived in Sa for 35 years and still have a house and most of my family there. We weren’t talking about crime but discussing sports. Whenever one tries to be positive beware, the crime card will be brandished in your face to shut you up. Honestly guys, i can’t seem to understand. Is it forbidden to say anything positve about SA here?
The Saint komaan wat se jy van jul aanwinste.
Is dit Habs se kennis of Jaque se werksywer wat julle serious contenders gemaak het.
Of is dit AC
Nee super
Vertel man, ek wonder nou al die heeltyd…
This site is 99% positive about our beloved sport, and other not so loved sport
14 om te gaan
13 Comments needed for 100 000 comments
101 – Fender, That is my old turf Holland. I would have supported them going to that game. Watch the Dutch there will thousands and thousands here wearing their Orange. They are a happy bunch and great during the WC football. I was still living there during the 1994 world cup. Everyone but everyone even the street cleaners wore Orange for during the world cup. Think it was held in America that time but you would have thought it was in Holland. They Balloons, flags bikes everyone has a bike there had orange ribbons on. They know how to party. Enjoy it.
105: fender, my maat, ek hoor wat jy sê, ek sal nooit die blog misbruik vir ander redes nie, maar dink so daaraan: as hierdie land aangaan soos hy aangaan, kan die toename in misdaad en onrus juis veroorsaak dat sportliefhebbers nie meer hul geliefde sport kan beoefen en geniet nie. Daarom moet ‘n mens so nou en dan wel oor hierdie dinge van die lewe dink en gesels.
Ekself is oop om oor enige onderwerp op enige plek te gesels (of dit nou rugby, geloof of politiek is, want almal is nou verbonde aan mekaar), die vraag na my mening is nie of ons oor ander dinge gesels nie, dit is oor HOE ons met en oor mekaar en oor sensitiewe onderwerpe gesels.
Toe ek vanoggend die koerant oopmaak, en lees van hierdie man (Johan Strydom) se lewe wat so sinneloos geneem is, toe vra ek myself af:
1. hoe voel sy pa en ma nou ?
2. sy vrou of meisie ?
3. wat is die sin van die lewe, en wanneer gebeur dit met een van ons rugby tjommas hier op hierdie blog ?
En, wat sou ons nou gesê het, as so iets bv met Schalk Burger of Victor Matfield gebeur het ?
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