If the Crusaders players can persuade their jumbled body clocks to forgive them the tortuous regime of the last few weeks, the New Zealanders have a famous victory within their grasp in Soweto this weekend.
It won’t be easy. In fact it will be decidedly tricky. But if anybody can, the Crusaders can – as their stellar record at this stage of the season amply testifies.
The Bulls are a formidable side, not to mention a well rested one. Since these two teams last squared off on May 5 in Pretoria, the Crusaders will have travelled to and from New Zealand and got themselves up for an elimination final round-robin clash against the Brumbies in Christchurch last Friday night.
By contrast the frontline Bulls players were given the final round off, with a second-string side selected to head down the coast and complete what was, for them, a meaningless final fixture against the Stormers.
But was it? It just may be that the Bulls have made a tactical blunder ahead of this third semifinal meeting between these two sides over the last four years. Only time will tell, but despite the foreboding presence of the travel factor five key things tell me Todd Blackadder’s Crusaders can cause an upset in the first of the semifinals at Orlando Stadium when they take on the top qualifiers and defending champions at 3am on Sunday, NZ time.
Here they are:
1. Momentum.
Believe it or not it’s actually on the side of the Crusaders despite their patchy finish to the season. They were the best team on the paddock a fortnight ago when they wound down their unsuccessful tour with a 35-40 defeat notable as much for the outrageous refereeing performance of Marius Jonker as it was for anything spectacular the Bulls did.
The ‘Saders took plenty out of that Loftus match where they played most of the rugby, established the tempo and very much dictated terms for a clash which swung on two or three contentious decisions by Jonker. Then they turned round, off the long trip home, and pretty clinically dealt to a Brumbies side that had the sniff of the semis in their nostrils.
There were signs at the weekend that the Crusaders game had finally gone to the level that Blackadder has been seeking for a while now. Their work, particularly off turnover, was as sharp as it’s been all year and when New Zealand’s best team has its link play and counter game going, they are always tough to beat.
On the other side of the coin the Bulls forsook momentum in favour of resting their top lineup ahead of the semifinals – a tactic fraught with danger. It hasn’t worked in the past – particularly for the Waratahs in 2002 – and it will be interesting to see how the Bulls come out on the back of what was essentially a bye week for their leading players.
2. The Soweto factor.
The Bulls have an awesome record at Loftus Versfeld where they haven’t been beaten in over two years and where they’ve never lost in the Super rugby post-season.
But unfortunately for them, this semi ain’t at their Pretoria fortress, it’s in a soccer stadium in Soweto, because of the looming Fifa World Cup. That changes the playing field significantly.
Any mental blocks the Crusaders may have had over playing at a stadium where they’ve twice been rolled by the Bulls at semifinal time now go out the window.
Instead it’s been notable that the Crusaders team have been embracing the Soweto factor ahead of the match, expressing their excitement at the chance to play in the famous Johannesburg township at a quality venue just a stone’s throw from the brand new Soccer City stadium that will host the World Cup final in a few short weeks.
Loftus may not have held any fears for the ‘Saders, but it certainly presented some bad memories. There will still be a full house of Bulls fans at Orlando Stadium, but that won’t worry the Kiwis a bit as they look to make the most of their scheduling break.
3. They’re due.
Simple as that. The Crusaders have a superb post-season record with this their ninth straight semifinal appearance and their 12th in 13 seasons. Until 2007 they’d never lost a semi, and they responded to that departure (at the hands of the Bulls) by bouncing back to claim title No 7 the following year.
What do you know they lost at the semifinal stage to the Bulls again last year, so if the cycle holds true they should go all the way again in 2010.
But more than just sequencing suggests this could be the Crusaders year. They’re an outfit that have played more playoffs football than anybody in the competition, and they know what’s required at this stage. Plus they tend to learn their lessons. Those two semifinal defeats by the Bulls will be painful reminders of just what it takes to win against this tough side. A fortnight ago showed they’ve got a plan that works. Now they just need to execute it a smidgeon better and get a fairer deal from the man with the whistle.
4. They’ve got a better backline.
Sure, everyone knows rugby wins are forged up front, but both these packs are full of quality individuals and really should cancel each other out. Lineout edge to Bulls, scrum one to Crusaders, the breakdown and loose forward battle should be a beaut.
But the Crusaders’ attack game has found its feet in the nick of time, with Zac Guildford, Sean Maitland, Colin Slade, Dan Carter and, to a lesser degree, Robbie Fruean running into some serious form. The decision to go with Dan Bowden as a second five-eighth also seems to have worked, especially in terms of the distribution and kicking game.
The Bulls, on the other hand, are without their best finisher (van den Heever) to suspension and, let’s face it, have never been renowned for their willingness to shift it through the hands. If the Crusaders can again make this a free-flowing encounter, they will hold the trump cards.
5. Dan Carter.
He’s spent all year making uncharacteristic mistakes and struggling to find his A game. But the last two weeks there have been signs that the world’s best No 10 is coming back to the form that we’ve come to expect from him.
The battle between two fabulous pivots could well decide this clash. Morne Steyn has punished the Crusaders heavily in their recent meetings and Blackadder will stress the need to minimise the chances for this great points-taker to have either shots or pots at goal.
But Steyn does not have the decision-making prowess, nor the running game, of Carter at his best. All season the All Black great has played a strangely off-key tune, but wouldn’t it be typical – and timely – for him to take command now when the stakes are highest.
Steyn is a fine player. But he’s not Carter. Big advantage to the Crusaders.
So there you have it. Five reasons why the Crusaders could win what should be a gripping semifinal. Of course they have to make them count against a side that has fashioned a formidable record of its own of late.
It should be one heck of a semi.
By MARC HINTON – Stuff
Loosehead we have a plan c too
VRYSTAAAAAAAAAAT is uit , klaar met die seisoen loskop…
Wie support jy vir die semis ?
Die ligarondtes is verby. Geluk aan al die spanne wat die semi’s gemaak het, veral die twee spanne wat die tuissemi’s gemaak het.
Die eerste prys bly om in die finaal te speel en te wen, maar om ‘n tuissemi aan te bied is reeds ‘n groot inspuiting vir jou unie.
As die Stormers weer kan wegspring soos teen die Bulle B span, maar belangrik, daardie intensiteit behou, behoort hul die Tahs te klop.
As die Bulle ‘click’ soos dieselfde tyd laas jaar, behoort hul ook te wen. Maar, as hul weer met reëlmaat balbesit aan die Saders agterlyn gaan gee, om die een na die ander aanval te loods, dan gaan hul groot probleme optel, al is hul uitgerus.
Ons ondersteuners is in groot afwagting dat die A span met hul “A game” sal opdaag, en dit van minuut 1 af, nie net in 2de helfte nie.
Sien Dickenson is skeidsregter vir Orlando, wie blaas op Nuweland ?
Blouste, But Vrystaat played well on Saturday. Missed the game but they must have had a cracker to get that score.
Loosehead julle het nou nie nodig gehad om die arme Leeus so te karnuvel nie, maar dan weer nice points difference reggemaak daar
was impresive
Blouste, Stompies en Bulle natuurlik.
Jammer superBul, ons sal volgende keer ons B span stuur.
Ciao a tutti! Howzit Puma, bru. Looking forward to these semis like Bluest is licking his lips for the new porn channel! Think our Bullyboys are going to have tremendous support behind them at orlando and the locals are going to be exceptionally welcoming. Great for SA and rugby in general. That and the altitude will carry our boys through IMO. Going to be tough, but see the Bull standing proud over the battered and bloody Saders at the end.
68 – Turk, I hope the Bulls win too. Think for the Saders this travel now may be a bridge too far. Especially this time round they play at altitude not at sea level after the monster travel back to SA.
Also want a Stormers win this Sat. Really hope for two saffa teams in the final. Like we had in 2007. At Orlando that will be just awesome. A real historic time for Rugby I feel. The people showing their support of the Bulls. See plenty wearing he Bulls shirt from Friday. So think playing at Orlando is not a lose for the Bulls but actually a great advantage.
69 – lose = loss
Loosehead
En as hulle teen mekaar speel ?
68 – Sorry Turk, How you doing yourself mate? Hope well.
Morning Turkie 😉
I just cant see how they keep traveling without any problems of tiredness. Some juice Suzi give them.
Yip Puma, playing at Orlando is going to turn out to be a stroke of great good fortune for the rainbow nation. As you say, to contest the final there between two saffa sides will be something special for the country and then the SWC to top it all off. I will be in Sa for the World cup and am so eagerly looking forward to it mate! It’s gonna be AWESOME!
Blouste: Bulle seker want daar is meer Vrystaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaters in julle span.
i dont care too much about the good we want that cup.
But if we get the cup final in Soweto it will be the best positive Rugby thing that happened in SA since 1992
Hope the bulls play Tiger as he did well on defense. That’s been the Bulls weakness this season and the Saders carved them up last time.
75 – Turk, I think the soccer world cup is going to be brilliant. Just about everywhere you drive in Joburg people have their little flags that hang onto the windows flying. I bought myself one too. Also a Bafana shirt. Just had to get into the vibe. It is already feeling great.
I am not a great Football fan but always enjoy the world cup no matter where it is played each time. This time it is here so going to take it in and remember it forever. Something very special. I have tickets to the pool game with Brazil/Portugal. Really looking forward to it and to experience watching two great football nations playing. Also to experience the new MM stadium.
Now with the Bulls going to play at Orlando, I personally think it is a huge, huge plus for the Bulls. Everyone is going to support the Bulls. They will have even more support than before. Good stuff. Wish I could have gone to that game but wont be here. On holiday from Thursday.
#51 Blouste
Nee, jy’s reg daso. Dit was soos om te wen sonner ‘n bonus punt nadat jy lemoentyd agter was!
Dankie vi jou belangstelling. ek sal jou op hoogte hou…
@78 The final in Soweto will be great but life continues after, so that’s why we need all the goodwill we can build in the Rainbow nation so we can enjoy many more such in years to come.
Someone said that Bulls jerseys sell like “soetkoek” there in Soweto
@79 Enjoy your holiday in …Mauritius? I will be in Cape Town for the SWC and have tickets to see the first Italy game with some Italian mates.
77 – Super, It will be for sure. I have seen quite a few wearing the Bulls shirts. At traffic lights, shopping malls. I think this thing playing at Orlando have brought many people out to support the Bulls. Think it is a huge, huge plus not a disadvantage like many want to think it is. It is a massive advantage. Plenty more support from all people. Very good to see that. That is why we must get ourselves a Bafana shirt whether we like soccer or not. We need to repay the support we have got from the whole country in 1995 world cup here and now Bulls getting huge, support from the people of Soweto.
I have painters here today that live there. They still doing some touch ups inside my house right now. They all 3 of them wearing Bulls shirts. Now I told them anything about the game. They just showed up in those shirts today. Good to see that. Felt proud actually that our people have come out to support the Bulls playing there. We have to repay and support our soccer team whether they do well or not. Need to put our flags up and bafana shirts on after ther S14 is over. Time to give back.
meant told them nothing about the game.
Debate around Bakkies Botha’s citing may be smoke-screening a deeper issue: that Danie Rossouw is a better bet against the Crusaders.
this is the intro of a article on News24
Will miss your blogging for the semis and final Puma. Pity you don’t have your team in it. I often support the sharks in the super14 when the stormpoppies are out of contention, so it’s strange to have my team up there this time!
Interesting…
Puma
When are you leaving ?
84
just watch they dont paint your house blue
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