I played with the results in the Super 14 competition and came up with these interesting facts. Well, off course because they look so favourable for the Bulls, that’s why I publish them. I realise that this means sweet blue nothing in the next few weeks.
You are just as good as your last game. The “Blou Masjien” is a slow starter but the moment that machine is tuned there is no stopping it. So don’t think I am counting my chickens yet. I know how quick a season can go pear shaped. The Stormers, our other South African challenger for the 2010 title, have the most daunting task to beat the Crusaders.
The Stormers can take heart in, no I do not know in what. The Crusaders do not slip up at the end of the season. The Stormers MUST win this game to score the mental edge. They might play one another within the next fortnight again. If it is in Cape Town there is a good chance for the Cape Town boys to go to the final.
Enough talk here are the stats.
I took the stats in the last 5 years since 2005. I covered only the teams with a realistic chance to go to the finals.
Last 5 games Form since 2005 (in brackets is position on Log) Red results not used in percentages yet
BULLS
05- W W W W W (3)
06- L W W L W (4)
07- L W W W W (2)
08- L W W W W (10)
09- L W W W W (1)
10- L W W ? ?
CRUSADERS
05- W W W W W (1)
06- W D L W W (1)
07- W W W L L (1)
08- L W W W L (1)
09- W L W W W (4)
10- W L L ? ?
STORMERS
05- L L L W L (9)
06- L W W L L (11)
07- W L W W L (10)
08- W W W D W (5)
09- L W L W W (10)
10- W L W ? ?
SHARKS
05- L L L L D (12)
06- W W L W W (5)
07- W W L W W (1)
08- L L L W W (3)
09- L L W L L (6)
10- W W L ? ?
WARATAHS
05- L W W W W (2)
06- L W W L L (3)
07- L W L L W (13)
08- W W L D W (2)
09- L L W W W (5)
10- L W L ? ?
REDS
05- L W W L L (10)
06- W L L LW (12)
07- L L W L L (14)
08- W L L L L (11)
09- L W L L L (13)
10- W W L ? ?
These stats purposely try to show how the Bulls managed to do the best at the end of the season.
The following table show the % wins by teams between 2005 and 2009 in the last 5 games of the year.
BULLS – 80% – 20/25
CRUSADERS – 72% – 18/25
WARATAHS – 56% – 14/25
STORMERS – 44% – 11/25
SHARKS – 44% – 11/25
REDS – 28% – 7/25
What do I read in the stats above?
Bulls manage to bring their A-game in the final stages. Do they know precisely how to peak? Even in 2008 when they were the laughing stock of the Super 14 Rugby World they managed to improve at the end to salvage some pride.
Crusaders, might slip a game or two but they are accomplished in the latter stages of the season. Absolutely amazing to see how many times they end top of the Log. Last year was the first time since 2005 that they did not top the log.
Waratahs, always there at finals time, they are true fighters at the end. How many times did they fight back to reach the semi finals. They are vulnerable at the later stages but never give up.
Stormers, well they are an unknown quantity. How they will fare in the later stages is anyone’s guess.
Sharks, they made the semi finals the last 3 seasons. But they lost a important game or two in the last stages. That tagged them as chokers. Maybe they left it a wee bit to late this season or did they plan this late charge. Are they trying to fight with their backs to the wall? No, not really, they were just unlucky earlier in the season. So will the choke still happen?
Reds, Now here is a juicy one. They were never higher than 10th on the Log since 2005. However, they play the best rugby of the whole lot at the moment. Can they go on? They have a relative easy road into the finals. I am watching with bated breath.
The Stormers and Reds are the two teams with most to win or lose in the next round. If the Stormers beat the Crusaders they will not only improve their own position considerably, they will put the Crusaders in serious trouble. Same with the Reds, if they win this game they will almost certainly have a home semi final.
The Bulls must take their game against the Sharks as a quarter final, if they win they will be in. Then they can start playing to get their playoff games at home.
I just wish the Bulls trend can go on like the last 3 years.
LWWWW
The lucky thing is we are better positioned than last year we might overcome another loss.
I wouldn’t recommend we go down that route though- would be too close for comfort, and worse, if it happens to be against the Stormers, we’ll never hear the end, even if we win the final!
Everyone talks about fortress Loftus
did you know
Shark tank would beat the Fortress if it was not for the Bulls spoiling the Sharks in their tank.
If one look at each teams wins, remember the ones they won at home
the
Bulls 67%
Crusaders 66%
Sharks 62%
Stormers 57%
Sharks lost more at home to the Bulls
They played 13 matches in s14
Bulls won 7
not counting the 2007 final
For me it shows that Fortress Loftus over all stats is not way out, but if one takes the last 5 years you might get to 80% wins at Loftus.
Useless stats 😆
😆 All the stats is just a way to soothe my worried soul. At this stage of the season i know one slip can be fatal. So save your breath or fingers i enjoy it. 😀
And no i do not count chickens before they hatch. This article is a celebration off joy :GRIN: We still hold the bragging rights.
The lekkerder thing is only the Crusader supporters can come and spoil my party. with better stats 😆
Even that lean years dont hurt anymore. LoL
Superbul,
Well the Bulls “can take heart” that The Stormers will have “softened” (your words why the Stormers would beat the Chiefs and Blues)the Saders up for you.
Manlybok. This whole softening up thing is a pot K@K
5
Thanks but then you guys must not hold back, dont just give them a good training run, to shake of the jet lag. Do not “match harden” them, smash them , to kingdom come. 😆
GG says it is a pot of crab, so , go ahead , show him how it is done.
THANK You
I must have missed the bit where the Sharks made the semi’s last year. I can’t believe i missed that game. Who did they play and what was the final score ? LOL
8 Pokkel you did read the article great, i made that mistake on purpose, kudus to you 😆 Thanks
#6 Gunner,
Agreed, it only makes them the moer in after a loss.
Oi vey – how many different stories can I make the same statistics tell ? More than you have time to listen !
Come now … These stats dont show nor are they weighted to adjust for whether the games are home /away or even who the opponents were – ergo they do not show who “lifts” & who does not.
Should not be so hard to “lift” ones game at home against wooden spoon contenders who are on the last leg of their away games versus well rested title contenders on their home turf.
From the stats I conclude that the Lions will lose their remaining games, and in the process relieve the Bulls of their record of being the only Super Rugby team to fail to win a game in a perticular calendar year.
I predict however, that the Lions will in fact SMASH the Bulls’ record by absolutely re-writing the record books in terms of tries and point against in a season.
My congratulations go out to the Exco’, Management, Coaching Staff and Players concerned at the Lions / GLRU in anticipation of this amazing feat.
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