We are slowly but surely heading to the business end of the Super 14 Competition, and by now we know for sure that Teams No 11 to No 14 on the Log are totally just making up the numbers and are out of the Super 14 running. We also know that only a miracle will see any of the teams in No 7 to No 10 making a semi. Realistically speaking 6 Teams are still in the running, the Bulls, Crusaders, Waratahs, Stormers, Reds and the Brumbies… with the miracle team possibly being the Blues.

Here’s how I see this weekend.

Let’s start with the games on offer:

16	Chiefs	v	Vodacom Stormers	Hamilton	09:35
16	Brumbies	v	Hurricanes	Canberra	11:40
17	Blues	v	Western Force	Auckland	07:30
17	Crusaders	v	Vodacom Cheetahs	Christchurch	09:35
17	Reds	v	Vodacom Bulls	Brisbane	11:40
17	Auto & General Lions	v	The Sharks	Coca-Cola Park, Johannesburg	17:05

 

Friday 16 April 2010:

Chiefs vs Stormers:

The Chiefs host the Stormers at the waikato Stadium, Hamilton at 09:35 SA Time.

The Chiefs, one of the disappointments of the 2010 Super 14, after being a finalist in 2009. Their record is won 4 and lost 4, with a negative points differnce of just 1. They’ve conceded 23 tries and only scored 24.

For a team who boasts stars like Masaga, Kahui, Donald, Leonard, Lauaki, Latimer and Messam this is simply not good enough and they will be desperate to get a smither of hope left for the Super 14 of 2010 because they are sitting in that uncomfortable No 7 spot, virtually without chance to make the semi’s.

The Stormers on the other hand are sitting relatively pretty in the No 4 spot but I would be rather worried if I was a Stormer, they are playing the No 7, No 5, No 2 and No 1 Teams in the weeks to come and also play the resurgent Sharks… 5 tough weeks remaining where not dropping 2 of the matches will be quite an achievement!

So, it has to be down for business this weekend for the Stormers, with certain stalwarts expected to lead the charge again, Andries Bekker, Schalk Burger, Dewaldt Duvenage, Peter Grant, Jacque Fourie, to name a few.

They have the class and the firepower and the defence to easily beat the Chiefs…. Stormers by 17.

 

Previous Super 14 results:
2009: Chiefs won 28-14 (Cape Town)
2008: Stormers won 35-26 (Hamilton)
2007: Stormers won 21-16 (Cape Town)
2006: Chiefs won 30-20 (Mount Maunganui)

Teams:

Chiefs: 15 Tim Nanai-Williams, 14 Lelia Masaga, 13 Richard Kahui, 12 Stephen Donald, 11 Dwayne Sweeney, 10 Mike Delany, 9 Brendon Leonard, 8 Sione Lauaki, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam (captain), 5 Culum Retallick, 4 Craig Clarke, 3 Ben Afeaki, 2 Hika Elliot, 1 Toby Smith.
Replacements: 16 Vern Kamo, 17 Nathan White, 18 Romana Graham, 19 Colin Bourke 20 Junior Poluleuligaga, 21 Callum Bruce, 22 Jackson Willison.

Stormers: 15 Gio Aplon, 14 Sireli Naqelevuki, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Juan de Jongh, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Peter Grant, 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 François Louw, 6 Schalk Burger (captain), 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Adriaan Fondse, 3 Brok Harris, 2 Tiaan Liebenberg, 1 JD Moller.
Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 JC Kritzinger, 18 Anton van Zyl, 19 Pieter Louw, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Willem de Waal, 22 Tim Whitehead.

Referee: Steve Walsh (Australia)
Assistant referees: Bryce Lawrence (New Zealand), Shane McDermott (New Zealand)
TMO: Glenn Newman (New Zealand)

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Brumbies vs Hurricanes:

The Brumbies host the Hurricanes in Canberra at 11:40 SA Time.

The Brumbies are on a string of home games now, lying in No 6 spot on the Log, having won 6 and only lost 2, with a nice Points difference and having scored 10 more tries than they’ve conceded.

I still think this team is going to the semi’s, there is nothing in their performance which indicate the opposite. The teams who might just fall out of the running due to tough playing schedules left remaining include a few above them on the Log… the Crusaders, Waratahs, Stormers and Reds!

How does one bet against the quality of players in the Brumbies team, from front all the way to the backs?

The Hurricanes, another of the New Zealand underperformers, sitting at a lowly 9th spot, basically out of the running! To them I want to say, sissssss on you, you are squandering talented player’s abilities!

I mean, here’s a team sporting Cory Jane, Tamati Ellison, Conrad Smith, Ma’a Nonu and Hosea Gear in their last 5 positions, players who should to rights run every other team ragged, yet they have lost 4, drawn 1 and won only 3 matches this year…. pityful!

…but on the right day they might just click…. just not against the Brumbies, I feel…. Brumbies by 8.

 

Previous Super 14 results:
2009: Hurricanes won 56-7 (Wellington)
2008: Hurricanes won 33-15 (Canberra)
2007: Hurricanes won 11-10 (Wellington)           
2006: Brumbies won 21-16 (Canberra)

Teams:

Brumbies: 15 Julian Huxley, 14 Pat McCabe, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Tyrone Smith, 11 Alfie Mafi, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Josh Valentine/Patrick Phibbs, 8 Stephen Hoiles (captain), 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 Mark Chisholm, 4 Ben Hand, 3 Salesi Ma’afu, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Ben Alexander.
Replacements: 16 Huia Edmonds, 17 Guy Shepherdson, 18 Justin Harrison, 19 Colby Faingaa, 20 Patrick Phibbs/James Stannard,  21 Brackin Kaurauria-Henry,  22 Andrew Smith/Ed Stubbs.

Hurricanes: 15 Cory Jane, 14 Tamati Ellison, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma’a Nonu, 11 Hosea Gear, 10 Aaron Cruden, 9 Tyson Keats, 8 Rodney So’oialo, 7 Nick Crosswell, 6 Victor Vito, 5 Michael Paterson, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Neemia Tialata, 2 Andrew Hore (captain), 1 John Schwalger.
Replacements: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Jacob Ellison, 18 Bryn Evans, 19 James Broadhurst, 20 Chris Eaton, 21 Willie Ripia, 22 Jason Kawau.

Referee: Jonathan Kaplan (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Craig Joubert (South Africa), Andrew Lees (Australia)
TMO: Matthew Goddard (Australia)

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Saturday 17 April 2010:

Blues vs Force:

The Blues host the Force in Auckland on Saturday at 07:30 SA Time.

Let me say 1st of all, I was pissed off with the Blues for stuffing up my SuperBru last week, but at the same time I was more happy that the Stormers really stuck it to them and beat the pants off the Blues in the 1st 30 minutes of the match!

The Blues looked shell-shocked, bamboozled and dumbfounded by the way the Stormers came out in the match and they will know that a good win every week from now on is the only miracle which will see them through to the semi’s. They are in lowly 8th spot, but more important, they will have to gather more Log points in the last 5 games than in the entire 1st 8 games of the competition, to make the semi’s, having won 4 and lost 4!

If they play like they played against the Bulls, they will win every game, if they play like against the Stormers, they might lose every match!

In the otherrrrrrrr cornerrrrrrrrrrrrrrr…. we have the Force, the team who was punched into the ground in the first 7 weeks of the competition, just to stand up and suddenly get 2 very decent wins in a row. I say, well done on getting up from the floor… hoping 2 SA Teams hear this and follow suit!

The Force has climbed their way up from 14 to 12 and if they win this week they could climb some more.

My prediction however is based on talent and home advantage…. Blues by 13.

 

Previous Super 14 results:
2009: Blues won 25-19 (Perth)
2008: Force won 27-17 (North Harbour)
2007: Blues won 33-6 (Perth)
2006: Blues won 39-8 (Auckland)

Teams:

Blues: 15. Isaia Toeava, 14. Joe Rokocoko, 13. Benson Stanley, 12. Luke McAlister, 11. Rudi Wulf, 10. Stephen Brett, 9. Alby Mathewson, 8. Viliami Ma`afu, 7. Tom Chamberlain, 6. Jerome Kaino, 5. Filo Paulo, 4. Kurtis Haiu, 3. John Afoa, 2. Keven Mealamu (Captain), 1. Tony Woodcock
Replacements: 16. Tom McCartney, 17. Tevita Mailau, 18. Andrew Van der Heijden, 19. Peter Saili, 20. Chris Smylie, 21. Rene Ranger, 22. Paul Williams

Western Force: 15 James O’Connor, 14 Mark Bartholomeusz, 13 Mitch Inman, 12 Ryan Cross, 11 Cameron Shepherd, 10 David Hill, 9 Chris O’Young, 8 Richard Brown, 7 David Pocock, 6 Matt Hodgson, 5 Nathan Sharpe (captain), 4 Tom Hockings, 3 Tim Fairbrother, 2 Nathan Charles, 1 Nic Henderson.
Replacements: 16 Ben Whittaker, 17 Matt Dunning, 18 Sam Wykes, 19 Ben McCalman, 20 Justin Turner, 21 Sam Harris, 22 Nick Cummins.

Referee: Keith Brown (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Vinny Munro (New Zealand), Shane McDermott (New Zealand)
TMO: Ben Skeen (New Zealand)

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Crusaders vs Cheetahs:

 The Crusaders host the Cheetahs in Christchurch at 09:35 on Saturday.

The Crusaders are sitting in the No 2 spot after 9 weeks, having won 6, drawn 1 and lost only 1 game. Their points difference is at 77 points and they have scored double the amount of tries they have conceded.

There appears to be an injury scare to Dan Carter but other than that the team is firing better and better every week.

The injury-ridden Cheetahs are on a dismal No 13 spot on the Log and looking worse for wear each week as the weeks progress. For them the Log does not look pretty, having won only 2 games and lost 6, with a negative points difference of 106 points… and having conceded 267 poins already! They have scored 13 tries and conceded 31 tries in the process.

They have now truly slipped to become as useless as what the Lions have shown all season.

Let’s call a spade a freegin shovel, there is no hope in hell for the Cheetahs to beat the Saders in their own backyard and chances of this game getting pretty ugly for the Cheetahs are very good…. I predict the Saders by miles and miles….. Saders by 40 Plus.

 

Previous Super 14 results:
25 Apr 2009 Crusaders v Cheetahs 13-20 Bloemfontein
15 Mar 2008 Crusaders v Cheetahs 55-7 Christchurch
24 Feb 2007 Crusaders v Cheetahs 49-28 Bloemfontein
15 Apr 2006 Crusaders v Cheetahs 53-17 Christchurch

Teams:

Crusaders : 1. Wyatt Crockett , 2. Ti’i Paulo , 3. Ben Franks , 4. Chris Jack , 5. Sam Whitelock , 6. George Whitelock , 7. Richie McCaw (c) , 8. Thomas Waldrom , 9. Kahn Fotuali’i , 10. Dan Bowden , 11. Sean Maitland , 12. Ryan Crotty , 13. Tim Bateman , 14. Jared Payne , 15. Colin Slade
Replacements: 16. Dan Perrin , 17. Owen Franks , 18. Brad Thorn , 19. Jonathan Poff , 20. Andy Ellis / Willi Heinz , 21. Dan Tu Umaga-Marshall , 22. Zac Guildford

Cheetahs : 15 Hennie Daniller, 14 Danwel Demas 13 Corné Uys, 12 Barry Geel, 11 Jongi Nokwe, 10 Riaan Viljoen, 9 Sarel Pretorius, 8 Davon Raubenheimer, 7 Barend Pieterse, 6 Hendro Scholtz, 5 Walti Vermeulen, 4 Izak van der Westhuizen, 3 WP Nel, 2 Adriaan Strauss (c), 1 Coenie Oosthuizen.
Replacements: 16 Ryno Barnes, 17 Wian du Preez, 18 Nico Breedt, 19 Philip van der Walt, 20 Tewis de Bruyn, 21 Meyer Bosman, 22 Robert Ebersohn.

Match Officials:
Referee: Jonathon White (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Garratt Williamson (New Zealand), Josh Noonan (New Zealand)
Television match official: Kane McBride (New Zealand)

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Reds vs Bulls:

The Reds host the Bulls in Brisbane at 11:40 SA Time.

This is going to be an interesting tussle, No 1 on the Log away from home against No 5 on the Log who have had to travel home all the way from SA.

The Reds are on fire, they totally smashed the Lions last week, after only 17 minutes they had already scored their 4 tries for a bonus point… they could afford to then release the foot from the pedal a bit, which caused the Lions to rally a bit, but when it seemed that the Lions were a bit close for comfort the Reds just put the foot back on the pedal and demolished the Lions further.

The Reds have won 5 and lost 3 but they have a healthy points difference of 89 points and Ewen McKenzie is doing wonders with a bunch of youngsters and previously unknowns. Of course their halfback pairing of Will Genia and Quade Cooper are ripping teams apart, left, right and centre and the team as a whole plays an exciting brand of rugby.

Any team who manages to neutralize Genia and Cooper, I think, would have the better of the Reds though, all the playmaking results from these 2 players.

The Bulls are back in the No 1 spot after briefly relinquishing it for 1 week to the Waratahs. The Bulls have just come off a very workmanlike win against the Chiefs in Hamilton, where they also managed to harvest a bonus point for tries and if the Bulls manage to beat the Reds, they will look at their tour down under as hugely successful, with only one blip (the loss gainst the Blues) on the radar.

Worrying factors are that the Bulls might have one foot back on the plane home and Morné Steyn’s boot has been shoddy whilst down under, for some reason.

The Bulls have tightened defences nicely though, allowing only 4 tries in total whilst on tour against them but scoring 9 tries on tour themselves.

One feels almost obliged to predict a Bulls win, but this year the Reds are a hand full and I predict that it is going to be close enough for me to age significantly in the space of 1 game…. Bulls by 5.

 

Previous Super 14 results:
14 Feb 2009 Reds v Bulls 20-33 Pretoria
15 Mar 2008 Reds v Bulls 40-8 Brisbane
05 May 2007 Reds v Bulls 3-92 Pretoria
15 Apr 2006 Reds v Bulls 20-19 Brisbane
15 Apr 2005 Reds v Bulls 7-32 Pretoria

 

Teams:

Reds : 15. Peter Hynes, 14. Rod Davies, 13. Will Chambers, 12. Anthony Faingaa, 11. Digby Ioane, 10. Quade Cooper, 9. Will Genia (c), 8. Leroy Houston, 7. Daniel Braid (vc), 6. Scott Higginbotham, 5. Van Humphries, 4. Rob Simmons, 3. Laurie Weeks, 2. Saia Faingaa, 1. Ben Daley
Replcements: 16. Sean Hardman, 17. Greg Holmes, 18. Jack Kennedy, 19. Ezra Taylor, 20. Jake Schatz, 21. Ben Lucas, 22. Brando Va’aulu

Bulls : 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Gerhard van der Heever, 13 Stephan Dippenaar, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Dewald Potgieter, 6 Derick Kuun, 5 Victor Matfield (c), 4 Danie Rossouw, 3 Werner Kruger, 2 Gary Botha, 1 Gurthrö Steenkamp
Replacements: 16 Bandise Maku, 17 Bees Roux, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Deon Stegmann, 20 John Mametsa/Heini Adams, 21 Jacques-Louis Potgieter, 22 Pedrie Wannenberg/Jaco Engels.

Match Officials:
Referee: Chris Pollock (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Ian Smith (Australia), Stephen Hill (Australia)
Television match official: Steve Leszczynski (Australia)

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Lions vs Sharks:

The Lions host the Sharks at Coca-Cola Park, Johannesburg at 17:05 SA Time.

Dick Muir has once again made 6 changes to a strugglingly weak Lions outft who would maybe, just maybe, manage to get to a semi-final spot in a lessor Competition like the Vodacom Cup… not that they would stand a chance of winning such a lessor competition at all.

Bottom of the Log, propping all other sides up above them, with the stunning record of 0 from 8 games, having conceded 43 tries whilst scoring only 25 themselves and allowing a staggering 354 points to be scored against them in the process… a full 159 negative points difference.

They will be lucky to win 1 game in this Super 14 and if they do they will probably only do it because the other team is so complacent that they forget to practice for the match.

The Sharks seem to finally have managed to pull themselves right after probably the worst start to a season ever, for them.

They are now at No 10 on the Log and could rise another notch or possibly 2 after this weekend. They have lost 5 and won 3, the last 3, of their matches and have a negative points difference of 22 points but the bigger worrying factor is that they have only scored 12 tries in 8 games whilst conceding 18 tries in the process.

Their biggest weakness lies in 1 position, flyhalf, where the pedantic Andy Goode just clearly is’nt Super 14 material or a Super 14 success. Players like JP Pietersen also needs to regain form which has been absent all season.

We finally see the exciting loosie combo of Jacques Botes, Jean Deysel and Willem Alberts starting and the Sharks have opted for consistency in selection as far as possible.

For all money there should only be one winner, who should also bag their bonus point for tries…. I predict the Lions to win…. hahaha… no, I was just checking whether you were awake… of course I predict the Sharks to win….. Sharks by 15.

 

Previous Super 14 Results:
21 Feb 2009 Lions v Sharks 10-25 Durban
15 Mar 2008 Lions v Sharks 8-16 Johannesburg
28 Apr 2007 Lions v Sharks 3-33 Durban
15 Apr 2006 Lions v Sharks 8-36 Johannesburg
14 May 2005 Lions v Sharks 20-20 Bloemfontein

Teams:

Lions : 15. Michael Killian, 14 Tonderai Chavanga, 13. Marius Delport, 12. Doppies le Grange, 11. Wandile Mjekevu, 10. Herkie Kruger, 9. Jano Vermaak, 8. Todd Clever, 7. Wikus van Heerden, 6. Cobus Grobbelaar (capt.), 5. Franco van der Merwe, 4. Nico Luus, 3. Gert Muller, 2. Hans van Dyk, 1. JC Janse van Rensburg.
Replacements: 16. Hannes Franklin, 17. Heinke van der Merwe, 18. Willem Stoltz, 19. Derick Minnie, 20. Chris Jonck, 21. Deon van Rensburg, 22. Carlos Spencer.

Sharks : 15 Patrick Lambie, 14 Odwa Ndungane, 13 Stefan Terblanche, 12 Riaan Swanepoel, 11 JP Pietersen, 10 Andy Goode, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Willem Alberts, 7 Jean Deysel, 6 Jacques Botes, 5 Johann Muller, 4 Steven Sykes, 3 Jannie du Plessis, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 John Smit (capt).
Replacements: 16. Craig Burden, 17. Tendai Mtawarira, 18. Wilhelm Steenkamp, 19. Alistair Hargreaves, 20. Rory Kockott, 21. Andries Strauss, 22. Lwazi Mvovo.

Match Officials:
Referee: Mark Lawrence (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Marius Jonker (South Africa), Phillip Bosch (South Africa)
Television match official: Johann Meuwesen (South Africa)