It’s standing room only at the Last Chance Saloon as the Chiefs, Blues and Hurricanes all contemplate a quest for perfection in Super 14 campaigns that have been anything but.

That’s the sad upshot of a disastrous weekend for New Zealand’s four active Super 14 sides, with the aforementioned trio left with a rugby version of Mission Impossible over the remaining five weeks of the regular season.

For all three, one more slip and their semifinal hopes are over. For all three that would represent a major disappointment in a season when playoff territory was definitely keyed into their GPS’s.

Frankly, none look in with a snowball’s chance in hell of getting there either.

That’s the depressing conclusion after a weekend where the Crusaders were the only New Zealand franchise to secure a victory – underlining their credentials for yet another semifinal appearance – and the Blues and Chiefs both joined the inactive Hurricanes on “dormie” after devastating home defeats.

The Canes, who had the bye, knew their scenario a week ago in the wake of their 26-26 draw with the Crusaders in Wellington. And having to come from the deepest on the table, theirs looks the most forlorn task.

But given the limp manner in which both the Chiefs and Blues folded to home ground defeats against sturdy South African opposition who gratefully accepted their hosts’ generosity, only a blind optimist could imagine a five-game winning streak in their futures either.

The cutoff looks like being somewhere around 41 or 42 points. And that’s a long way off for all three Kiwi pretenders who would need to win all five remaining matches, and probably pick up bonus points en route. Even then they’d probably still need a result or two elsewhere to fall their way.

Over the four previous seasons of Super 14 rugby 38 points has been the lowest total to sneak into the semifinals, and over the last three years it’s been 42, 41 and 41 respectively. Those sort of marks look a long, long way off for the Kiwi stragglers.

The Blues (4-4, 20 points) probably have the best cause to stay optimistic given their remaining schedule. Four of their matches look distinctly winnable though the other – the visit to the Sharks on April 24 – shapes as the one that could undo them.

But Pat Lam’s men must fancy their chances of knocking off the Western Force at home this Saturday, then after that visit to the Sharks meet the struggling Cheetahs and Lions in South Africa before a home finale against the Chiefs.

The way the Blues play, too, bonus points en route should not that big a problem.

But you have to think that, given their notorious lack of consistency, somewhere along the way they’ll slip up – that visit to the Sharks the most obvious banana skin.

They may well rue the potential two bonus points they left on the track at Eden Park on Saturday as they were unable to summon a try over the final quarter that would have seen them walk off with two bonus points, at least. Ouch.

It’s all been so familiar, and so disappointing. Every year we entertain the prospect of the Blues finally shaking off their cursed inconsistency, and every year they fail that test. This will be the third straight season, and sixth in the last seven, the Auckland side has missed the playoffs.

The 21-33 defeat to the Stormers on Saturday encapsulated what is so frustrating about this franchise, especially coming on the back of that huge win over the Bulls on the same ground just seven days earlier.

Pathetically slow out of the blocks – they spotted the grateful South Africans a 20-0 start – the Blues were their own worst enemies as their lineout imploded and their lack of discipline and sure handling cost them dearly.

In between the bumbles, they actually produced some exhilarating rugby, showcasing Rene Ranger as a potential All Black bolter, and Alby Mathewson, Joe Rokocoko and Isaia Toeava as other definite contenders. But in the end it was just not enough.

The Chiefs were possibly even more disappointing, hardly firing a shot as they allowed the Bulls to bounce back from their Eden Park setback with a bonus point win.

And from here on in it gets distinctly tricky for last year’s surprise finalists, with the buoyant Stormers visiting next weekend and trips to the Hurricanes and Blues sandwiching a home clash against the high-flying Waratahs over the finishing stretch.

Two wins might be a realistic target – five is off the charts surely.

Which brings us to the Canes – semifinalists for four of the last five seasons and with the deepest squad in terms of talent among all the New Zealand outfits.

Having not won a match since week three, their season hangs by a thread and a quest of something like 23 or 24 points out of a possible 25 is Lord of the Rings territory.

Especially when you look at their schedule. Visits to the Brumbies and Waratahs – both well above them on the table – open and close their run home, and even home matches against the Chiefs and resurgent Reds are no gimmes.

Stranger things have happened, but probably not in Super rugby.

Given that the Highlanders showed distinct signs of imploding at the weekend as their ragged season hit a nadir – hammered 42-17 in Queenstown by the Western Force for a seventh defeat in nine – it is all rather depressing reading for Kiwi rugby fans.

More so when you consider that from this rabble Graham Henry has to come up with a squad good enough to win the World Cup for the first time in 24 years.

Thank goodness, then, for the Crusaders who won a typical arm-wrestle over the Waratahs in Christchurch 20-13 to solidify their claims to a 12th semifinal appearance in the last 13 years.

There’s nothing special about the way these Crusaders are trundling along, except for the fact they’ve only lost one of their eight games, and are in an oh-so-familiar spot as the season comes down to the business end.

Don’t be in the least surprised to see the Red ‘n Blacks lift their game a notch now in the jostle, not just for the four semifinal spots, but the all-important home advantage come knockout time.

They have two tricky away matches left – at the Stormers and Bulls – but coming as they do at the tail end of the competition, against two sides also right in the mix, they’re just the sort of high-stakes contests this special franchise relishes.

For any hopes of Kiwi joy this year, three simple words spring most readily to mind – Go The Crusaders!

WALKING THE TIGHTROPE

The run home for NZ’s playoff hopefuls:

Crusaders (29 pts): v Cheetahs (h); v Force (a); v Stormers (a); v Bulls (a); v Brumbies (h). Prognosis: Couple of brutish away games near end, but should have plenty of margin for error. Safe bet.

Chiefs (21): v Stormers (h); v Cheetahs (h); v Hurricanes (a); v Waratahs (h); v Blues (a). Prognosis: Could lose four of their last five; no chance of winning ’em all.

Blues (20): v Force (h); v Sharks (a); v Cheetahs (a); v Lions (a); v Chiefs (h). Prognosis: Still a glimmer of hope, with visit to Sharks looming as the toughest on a winnable schedule.

Hurricanes (18): v Brumbies (a); v Highlanders (a); v Chiefs (h); v Reds (h); v Waratahs (a). Prognosis: There’s probably more chance of Tiger Woods being voted Husband of the Year than the Canes going perfect through this run.

5 Responses to New Zealand Teams walking the tightrope

  • 1

    “it is all rather depressing reading for Kiwi rugby fans”

    “More so when you consider that from this rabble Graham Henry has to come up with a squad good enough to win the World Cup for the first time in 24 years”

    How many years were we in this sad state. Will be nice to see how they handle this. When will the long knives come out.

  • 2

    Great read and great to read this. Tiger reference is a laugh from a somewhat acidic Kiwi pen. Doubt if all this pessimism is founded though. Blacks will always have 23 guys capable of winning against anyone in their backyard come 2011, I reckon..

  • 3

    The Waratahs and the Brumbies might just sneak past the Crusaders… and with the Bulls and Stormers likely to be there at the end, the Saders might miss out on a semi-spot.

    It is important therefore for the Bulls and Stormers to beat the Saders on their tour to SA, apart from beating the Reds in Ozzie and of course for the Stormers to beat the Chiefs.

    But let’s see, the Saders could well beat both the Bulls and the Stormers, ending in the No 1 spot on the Log, if we’re not careful…..

    It seems that last match between the Stormers and the Bulls at Newlands might be very bloody crucial after all!!

  • 4

    Ranger is much better than snake, nobody seems able to bring the fella down! He’s not that big, slthough he probably has thighs the size of black wattle trees.

  • 5

    All i want to know is, can the Sharks make the top 7? I am not a Sharks supporter perse, but its still an SA team.

    They should (could) win over the Lions(a) and Force(h), and can win the Blues at KingsPark.
    In all probability they could pick up a bp against two of these teams.

    Then, lets say, best case scenario for Sharks fans, they beat the Stormers or Bulls, and pick up a bp in one of the other games, thats leads them with a home run tally of… 19, and a final log score of 35. That should be good enough to make a huge challenge on top 7. In fact, The Durban team will be well within their rights to feel they can still make the semis. But lets be honest, they will need 5 from 5, and no one has scored more than 3 against the Stormers, and beating the Bulls in the ring… nie sommer nie.

    Oor die Cheetsahs en Lions wil ek net praat as daar religasie met die Kings betrokke is.

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