Yesterday, me and Morne had a little discussion regarding Wynand Olivier and his alleged position as the No. 1 inside centre in South Africa.
Now, to go on a rant and write 30 paragraphs of opinionated nonsense would only spark debate and arguments and bring us nothing nearer to an informed decision. So I decided to go the other route, the statistical route, and I downloaded the statistics of the 5 most prominent inside centres in South Africa for the first 5 rounds of Super Rugby.
Olivier for the Bulls, De Jongh for the Stormers, Bosman for the Cheetahs, Le Grange for the Lions and because the Sharks were somewhat inconsistent with selection (which might be a reason behind their failures) I chose Riaan Swanepoel, who played the last 3 games for the Sharks, as he had the most exposure, Jacobs had two games at 12 and Strauss only one.
I thought I knew what I was going to find, but I was wrong, the statistics paints a very interesting picture:
Basically I will let the stats speak for themselves, Juan de Jongh coming out top in 3 of the 5 categories, and Wynand not in one. Let’s debate this brothers, because I am 100% sure, that none of us expected this.
27 – Treehugs, HEY!!! where you been hiding? Miss having our Sharksgal here during the Sharks games. Now get back here for the game on Saturday okay?
How you been? You and Carol are very scarce these days. Miss both your posts here.
@29 TheSaint – Schalck are doing his thing, and I’m glad for him.
The question remains,leaving other contenders out for now…
On the games played so far ,who do you reckon should get the inside berth…Adi, or WO…
And then ,who do you think PdeV will give it to…
In that,#32 lies the problem for me…
#29 Saint
Schalk fighting for his jersey is great; Schalk lashing out at refs and players aint.
30 – Blouste, Excactly. Stats mean nothing really, just that. There is game plan a, b and c. When a team have to revert to game plan b or c – so does the player have too.
#28 Puma, ja I hear that recently it’s getting really cold when the sun goes down due to them switching of that altitude thingy, hehe!
34 – Fender, Agree Burger is playing the best rugby I have ever seen him play.
Maybe being Captain of the Stormers for the first time he will learn more about being a Captain as the season goes along. That is something new to him. He will get better at it, I have no doubt.
36 – Fender 😆
Now talking of great Autumn and Winter weather. You don’t get better than the East Coast of South Africa….. 😆
Durbs weather that time of year has to be the best in the world. Only I am still sitting up here in Joburg. Hope to be back next month. Now something has come up and may only get back in May. Been back up here for two months and it feels like YEARS. HAHAHA. Time to get back to the coast.
#32
I think that Jean de Villiers will get 12 for the Tri-Nations again, PdV obviously rates him, and he has been known to be consistent in selection, should he not get the call-up, which will surprise me, my experience with PdV says that Jacobs will probably get a run again even though PdV seems to have lost his initial love for Jacobs and might revert to WO.
Don’t discount De Jongh getting a call-up, PdV has always been a Province fan, maybe a season of Super 14 rugby for De Jongh is enough for PdV. Please note, I am not saying this is what I want, but what I think PdV might think.
Okay I am out of here. Back later.
39 – Saint, before I go out. You don’t meant that? JdV just cant walk straight back into that position for THIS 3Nations. Would never ever be fair to what PdV has been preaching about overseas players. Even if JdV is back before 3Nations. He should have been playing this whole S14 to get a shot at it straight up.
Inside centere for the 3Nations must go to WO. Has to be fair.
Maybe next year after he has played for the Sharks he can have a shot back at it 😆
Now out. Back later.
41 – meant – centre
Fender
Let’s be honest, Bosman was looking for trouble, holding on long after the whistle, it is an age old Cheetahs thing, continuing with stuff off the ball. Juan Smith is also a master of that, and it happened 7 or 8 times during the game.
The ref thing wasn’t cool, but it was sorted out on the field, IMO no worse than Victor Matfield yelling at Steve Walsh and making gestures. BTW both the Bulls and the Canes said that Walsh had done them in, so technically if he was bad, he was bad both ways…that is still consistent.
I think Schalk has calmed down quite a lot since becoming captain.
@39 TheSaint – Exactly my sentiments, I’m merely stating that in that lies no merit selection for me…
PdeV stated on Superrugby that most of the players(of the past)will be there…
I’m merely asking what does new guys have to do to break into the team?
It sends the wrong message in my opinion…
By the way…at the time the squad gets selected for Tri-Nations, what will JdeV have done in terms of SA rugby to warrant inclusion? Will he have even played?
Thats as far as only selecting SA based players are concerned…Surely he must have played here then.
Cheers Puma
Hehehe,
Okay Saint where to start here…
Let’s take it from the top;
Defense:
(I am only going to look at Wynand and De Jongh)
Tackles made; 52 v. 58
Two more missed tackles
Both average about one missed tackle per game.
Got this about correct?
Remember how we always said you need to be very careful with stats, and how stats are like a bikini where it reveals just what you want to see and hides the most important parts?
Well consider the following…
The Bulls makes on average 100 tackles a game (101), the Stormers makes on average 130 tackles a match (129). This is quite apparent since we know the Stormers employ a defense orientated game, and the Bulls not.
But what this also means is that on average, each Stormers player in the match 22 makes almost makes two more tackles per game, than their Bulls counterparts.
So what perspective does this put on 52 tackles, v. 58? Should De Jongh’s count not be much higher?
Where does he hide on defense then?
Ball in hand;
This is not even worth disecting as Wynand’s averages and stats outweighs De Jongh’s by a mile.
Superior ball carries, superior off-loads, superior line-breaks.
Gain-line success (would love to know how they calculate that) does not indicate how many times De Jongh went dead with the ball, failed to off-load or failed to link up with support… But I can personally think of quite a few instances…
Distribution;
Again, play-maker passes are the ones that count here for a 12.
Wynand hands-down.
Rucks;
Impressed with De Jongh’s work off the ball…
Especially on defense… (on attack it is even)
What is concerning with these stats however is that with 27 rucks joined on defense, only one turn-over won? Not his strenght I would imagine then (neither Wynand’s) so a bit of an arb stat.
Errors, Juan takes it.
So in all, from what I read and in context, Juan is a much better disciplined center than Wynand…
But that is about it…
🙂
29 – Saint, Sorry only saw this post as I logged out. So back to answer quick.
This year without a doubt, BURGER EVERYTIME. He has fought and won that jersey back hands down. Then it could also to be with the new laws but damn, he is playing the BEST rugby I have ever seen Burger play. Awesome. So yes, it has to be Burger for the 3Nations this year even if Brussow was not injured.
LAST year I would have selected Brussow everytime.
Cheers buddy. Out for a bit. Back later.
#41
Since when has PdV been fair? That is all that I, Lionel Mapoe, Tiaan Liebenberg and Deon Stegmann would like to know.
Fact is, JdV has played consistently while overseas. If he joins a union in SA, there is no rule saying he won’t be able to play.
@46 morne – Exactly, stats can be used in any wich way you want to intepret it…
Hell, people can argue according to those that Doppies should be our incumbant 12… which we all know is not true..
In short – turn and bent it the way you would like it to work for you…
I dispute these stats as it reads that De Jongh only had 1 line break when he had a bout 2 per game. Bring the correct stats and we can discuss it again.
@ 48
Surely there is no rule, but it’s contradicting what he’s trying to achieve by keeping players here are’nt it?
How can he make that conclusion….JdeV being tested in different conditions,playing type’s,against different players, even been sent to the bench at times…
No rules, but contradicting his believes then surely…
Morne…
Again you and I…
Remember, before the ball gets into De Jongh’s channel, it must pass Peter Grant, Schalk Burger, Francois Louw and Andries Bekker, and you know as well as I. Almost nothing get’s by those guys.
The Stormers forwards’ tackle count is miles higher than the backs, these guys are getting around the park. WO’s inflated stats is merely an indication of the inability in the Bulls’ defense from 1 to 10.
Onerb
Unfortunately it’s all I can lay my hands on…maybe Morne can help from Verusco’s side?
Six of the one, half a dozen of the other… 😆
Lets see when the Stormers and Bulls play each other…
An better indication than using stats imo…
#51
Remember that is only what I am thinking will happen…
JdV will come back a better player though, won’t take long to establish himself as No. 1 again, should he maybe not get the call-up immediately. Remember how White selected Percy straight off?
No other inside-centre in SA is close to the quality of JdV when he is in form, maybe it will be a question of quality over availability.
Saint, not to diss your stats but in the first game against the lions De Jongh made 2/3 linebreaks. Against the brumbies when fourie came inside and he opted for habana? Remember. And I only watched about 3 games played by the stormers so if such an opbvious stat is misleading there is no reason to believe the others(might) not be correct either.
55 – Ask Morne if he shares your sentiment 🙂
@ 55
I’m not arguing that JdeV might be the best option, merely asking that according to PdeV policies he should’nt be considered right?
If he does’nt stick to them it does’nt do much for his credibility imo.
This does’nt bode well allround…
Saint – if u were chooseing the Bok team would u choose De Jong b4 Meisiekind ?
Verusco’s stats shows the same line-break count for De jongh as Saints.
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