This time of year we usually get the ‘awards’ columns from rugby journalists or experts, I am neither so I won’t bore you with another one.
Taking time out and not doing this straight after our last test against Ireland gave me time to reflect on the season more holistically, and in many ways I disagree with the general sentiment out there that this was a special season for the Boks in the sense that people refer, or reflect on 2009.
For me personally, I am left disappointed.
At the end of 2008 I was excited by the promise the team showed. They had a willingness to adapt and change or for a better word, evolve with the game.
2009 however showed me nothing to get me excited.
Yes winning is nice and no-one could be more proud of what the boys achieved on the pitch this year.
It is not every year that we can sit back and look at our trophy cabinet and see a Super 14 trophy, a Lions series trophy, the Tri-Nations trophy, The Mandela Shield (or is it s plate?), the Freedom Cup, the Sevens World Series Trophy, and of course old Bill.
But many guys will tell you it is one thing to get to the top, it is quite another thing to stay there.
So yes, congratulations to Peter and the boys on their success in 2009, but these days the top prize is sustained success.
As an example, the World Cup gives any nation who holds it a bit of bragging rights, but anyone who knows anything about the game would be stupid not to admit that for the last 20 odd years or so, apart from a hiccup every now and then, the All Blacks have been the best in the world.
It is great to have the wood over them in 2009, where we beat them 3 times! But that hardly makes up for the last 15 years or so where we have been the bridesmaids.
So when it comes to sustained success against the top teams in the world we have to ask ourselves – do we believe we will do the same against the All Blacks and Australia (our main rivals) in 2010? I know we all hope and believe it is possible, but hope and belief achieved very little throughout the history of the game. Unfortunately, I personally believe we will not have a similar year of success in 2010, because I have seen very little ‘development’ or some sort of evolution in our game to show me we are not one-trick ponies but a team that grows with the times and ensures sustained domination in the game.
We have plan A, and if that fails, we pretty much have nothing else.
Now Plan A worked pretty well in the first Lions test but got worked out after that.
Plan A worked pretty well in the Tri-Nations for us but also got worked out on the End-of-Year tour especially when we came up against a guy (Gert Smal) that helped devise the plan in the first place.
Have we grown at all since 2007? In 2008 I believed we did, but 2009 showed me that when the chips are down, we are pretty much still those one-trick ponies.
One of our saving graces however is that what we do, we do pretty damn well and in fact, I think we are the best in the world at it. But unfortunately, as 2004 proved where we were the best at the rush defense, we will get worked out.
Peter talked about taking this team to the next level, that we can add another 20 to 30% to these guys and take them to a level to achieve sustained success never before seen in Springbok rugby in the professional era. Not only did I believe him, I also felt he was right and that it could be achieved.
It is not changing or dropping players or not playing towards our strengths, it simply evolving as a team and as players and the class of 2009, showed none of that.
I believe it is best explained in a quote I heard on television on Discovery channel about evolution in general, and that the species (read team) most likely to survive and not go extinct or become someone’s lunch are not those who effect change, but those who adapt to changes (read evolve) best.
In life or in that context you cannot afford to be a one-trick pony, if you are, you will be the ones being dug up and studied in future, rather than those doing the digging or those who survived.
It means that you have to evolve to add multiple dimensions and skills to meet whatever challenge head-on and survive, and not only rely on the tried and tested because as in nature where your enemies (viruses and bacteria) evolve and work out your natural and current defenses, so do professional rugby teams you come up against.
The Springboks have not.
In fact, where we won 69% of our tests in 2008 we only managed to win 66% in 2009. So yes the trophy cabinet might look very pretty, but in terms of our results, we have not evolved, or grown, we have in fact statistically speaking, regressed.
2010 will be a shocker of a year for many teams. Included in that of course I believe will be our Boks who will hit a low next year for many reasons, but also, I think the All Blacks will also suffer a shocker because their situation is very similar to that of the Boks.
I said many times this year that I cannot see the Blacks evolving or changing or becoming better under Henry, and I stand by that still. Take Carter out of that team and they are average.
Teams that will do well in 2010 includes Australia, France and Ireland (so make your picks today if you want to make a couple of bucks).
Australia and Robbie Deans are being criticised in a very similar way Peter was criticised in 2008, but what I believe they do not see is how Deans is busy evolving the game of rugby in Australia with a new breed of player and a fresher, newer way of thinking and playing.
Two years out, those three teams are also my picks for success in 2011 in New Zealand.
Of course the Boks and the Blacks will be there and amongst the top 5 for the next couple of years, because as long as we have the physical edge to the game we have in those two teams, they will be tough to beat.
Within saying that, it also means they only present a singular threat to opposition, where the aim really is to present multiple threats to opposition teams so you cannot be easily worked out and countered.
There is still time for possible success in 2011, but do not expect anything special in 2010.
Trofee Jan
Morne
This evry reasoning is IMO why the 7’s Boks have looked so ordinary so far this season. (2010)
They have failed to devlop on their “unique” brand that they had imposed on opposition in the last series.
The few games I saw them play, it was clear that they had nothing new to offer, and that the opposition had “sussed them out”.
One anomily in your theory though remains the Bulls / Blue Bulls, who seem to play the same type of forward dominated Rugby that then lets the back line loose when the opposition have “had enough” year after year with (to a large degree) the same amount of success.
Could it be that at Provincial level the opposition don’t have the collective analytical skills and / or player depths / skills base to counter it? (England play a “similar” forward dominated game, but everyone and their dog (at international lavel) now have an answer for it.)
I agree that while Trophies are not the only measure of success to people cloesly connected to the sport and who worry about the long term development and future of the sport, to the average Rugby spectator who fills the stands on a cold winter afternoon, the Trophies (and the bragging rights that go with them) are everything.
In closing, let me point out that we, (the bloggers on this site) often say that we don’t care if the Boks beat all comers by playing boring kick and rush Rugby, so long as they win. If so let me then pose the question, “what degree of importance do the trophies have to the average supporter who ploughs his meagre disposable income back into the game, and how do we educate them otherwise?”
Scrum,
I do not view the Bulls as one-dimensional at all or rather one-trick ponies.
They know their strengths and obviously use it (forward dominance and kicking 10) but they have also evolved as a team this year where they adopt on the park. You will see (youtube it) some of their tries are multiphase attack moves, sweeping movements over the park (one end to the next) with a lot of variance in their play (passing variations, stab kicks, cross kicks etc). This is largely thanks to one of their coaches they acquired the services of recently imo.
The problem with the one-trick pony Boks I have a problem with is not the winning, it is sustaining a winning brand or culture.
In pre-match analysis you do planning of your opposition, in which you identify and try to eliminate threats.
If a team you play against have limited number of threats, it is easy to counter.
Of course it does not necessarily mean you will beat them if they do what they do well, which is what the Boks do, but you won’t also always win, or sustain winning because one, there are teams who are as physical as us, and have as good kickers out of hand and great back 3’s to counter our only method of attack or play and second, injury disruption, player fatigue etc which will see you lose key players to execute plan A and then you are in kak.
A team like France, Ireland and Aus can lose two to three senior guys and still present a massive threat due to the brand of rugby they play, or presenting multiple threats, but take Carter and McCaw out of NZ, and Victor and Fourie for arguments sake out of the Boks, and we have problems.
Morne
One of the problems that I have with the Boks surrounds the fringe players.
As an example, it took Wynand Olivier a LONG time (IMO) to start showing his ability at international level, after having done so consistently for some time at Provincial level.
Now consider a player like Ryan Kankowski. I can’t recall having seen him play a solid game yet for the Boks, yet he can’t have become a poor player overnight.
This begs the question whether new players being bought into the setup are being managed correctly, or whether they’re just being “thrown” a Springbok jersey with an invitation to “get out there and see what you can do”? It sometimes seems like the latter, even though I’m sure it’s not.
Scrum,
This evolving I am talking about includes all of that, especially the devlopment of players outside the core which brings new dimensions and skills to the team.
Acrodslocloma, you have registered and been APPROVED.
Kindly complete your profile by adding your Real NAME & SURNAME and start blogging.
Morne
At least as a die hard Lions fan, I know that Trophies don’t mean everything!
Hopefully things will change. (How does that saying go, “We live in hope, and die in vain.”
Good article Morne, been saying that the whole year in not so many words.
Jeez Morne, a reality check just before exmas. 😥
Unfortunetly i agree and you all know my knowledge of the ins and outs of rugby is not the best, but lets hope the new rugby season suprises us and we are outstanding.
I think the coaches also agree with what you have said and are busy working with our guys at the training camp and are fixing all that needs to be fixed. If not then they need to get their arsed fired. 😡
😳 arsed is arses
The Players AND Coaches must rest now…. and come back refreshed in the new year with some NEW IDEAS… and there definately needs to be renewed verve and a NEW VISION… and as far as both the Bokke and the 7’s Bokke is concerned there needs to be a PLAN B.
Although we won some trophies this year, the year ended on a low…. very very low…
A lot has been learnt or should have been learnt and those lessons should be heeded.
I fear for a dismal 2010, I really do… both from the Franchises and from the Bokke.
GBS I agreed with all that has been said then thought about and the players and coaches know it as well so suddenly i am starting to feel positive because they know what the problems are and will fix it. Nobody wants to loose and we do have the players to be able to win consistantly.
I do disagree with Morne though on the All Blacks, they will go unbeaten in 2010 is my prediction.
I predict the All Blacks will have a good run till 2011 and then they will stutter AGAIN come RWC time.
Is almal op Farkansie?
One thing before i start dinner.
SHARKS ARE GOING TO WIN SUPER 14 AND THE CURRY CUP
YEEEEHAAAAAAAA
The soccer fraternity in SA would kill to have the same success rate our Rugby sector enjoys.
#17 In yer dreamz
Hello Pillie gotta go byeeee
Just a bit of cricket news. See Kallis is fit and ready to start the test on Wed. Now really hope he is over that injury 100%. Also he will only bat and field but not bowl. We need him to bowl too but even if he can not bowl will still have Kallis in my side.
Weather for this test not looking good again. Sun out for the first three days then see for Sat and Sun rain the whole day. Need to win it in 3 days! Not sure if we can or England can. Going to be another cricket game washed out by the weather. So unusual that weather for the highveld where it normally only has thunderstorms this time of year. Not full day of rain.
Durbs having awful weather too. Plenty rain. Not going to complain as I know after this the heat will be full on. and the dreaded humidity too.
#21 It`s that dreaded Global Warming thingie.
17 3hugger,
yeah maybe , but when 2020, 2030?
😆
You guys and WP bought up the whole SA, its going to be very very painful if you dont achieve it.
@15 – For New Zealand it will be important to make New Zealand a fortress again before the world cup. Before the world cup teams will be going out of their way to beat the Kiwis at home like South Africa and France have done this year. The internationals in 2010 and 2011 against the All Blacks will be very important for the opposition teams, they will want to give New Zealand a psychological blow by beating them at home, and New Zealand will want to get back on track and go into the world cup without having lost at home for two years. That’s going to be important for. Graham Henry would want the opposition to feel as if they don’t stand a realistic chance of beating the Kiwis at home. If he can do that New Zealand will be tough to beat.
24 – vanStraaten, Very right there mate. If ABs don’t get beat from now until world cup on their home turf they going to build up huge confidence. We need to be at our very best there this year to beat them.
Selection is key too. We have to select right. We beat them this year it could knock their confidence.
Are we still going to play Tri-Nations before the world cup? Crazy that is one year when we should all not play each other before the wc.
I know when Jake sent a under-strength side down there in 2007 I was angry. Always want our best to tour. But I think it was a master stroke. They never gained anything from us by us sending a 2nd side downt there.
23 – Super,
You never know this could be the Sharks year 😀
Actually don’t have much hope for my team this year. No FH and we are now missing Frans Steyn too. Need centres also.
Maybe the year I don’t expect them to do well they will surprise me.
Did you see Kallis is going to start on Wednesday? Wont bowl though. Also the weather for the 5 days looks like it will be a wash out again. First 3 days looks like brilliant sunshine then rain for Sat and Sun.
22 – The Pill, Think you are right. Must be the global warming. Only I am sitting with a jersey on right now in Durbs…..hehehe. Yesterday had my aircon on today it is off. Cold today. Never felt such a cold day in December here.
Tomorrow temps supposed to be back up to 32 around there. So will just enjoy the cool day we have had. Don’t enjoy the humid weather too much.
Puma
I hope we get our act together with the first test. I am worried about the hype around Ntini, so many other bowlers went past him, is he still good enough for test cricket?
Hope so, we cant take chances.
28 – Super, Not sure if Ntini is good enough still to be honest. We just have to hope.
The weather does not look good for Saturday and Sunday. Looks like rain the whole day for those two days. So maybe it will be washed out again. Pity about the bad weather we are having at the moment.
Now about SuperBru. Think we pick who we think will win then who is ahead on the first day. Cant remember looked at it the otherday and thought. Wait, you need to see who is batting first to see how much runs they could be ahead. So not sure how much time we have to do our picks. They normally do the toss about a half hour before the game. So hoping we have time to see who bats first before doing our picks.
28 – Super, If Kallis is not 100% fit we will be in trouble. Can not go into a test with a injured player. Also hoping that D. Steyn is 100% over his injury too.
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