A few weeks ago I mentioned the Springboks will have a nightmare 2010 season but little did I know it will start in 2009 already.

The statement was not made because I am clairvoyant, if I was, this will be my last ever column as it is Lotto Wednesday today.

The assumption was made on the back of repeated warnings, backed up by some solid facts and examples from the likes of Professor Tim Noakes.

Now I probably posess about 5% of the knowledge of experts like Prof. Noakes, but given what he has been saying all year long now (and for years before that) and what I personally experienced I can only wonder how long it will take, or how many times we will continue to make the same mistakes, before we take guys like Prof. Noakes and his advice seriously?

When I attended the Currie Cup semi-final at Newlands I made a point of reporting how knackered Victor Matfield looked not only in the game, but how utterly exhausted he looked when he sat in the post-match press conference where in my mind, he simply went through the motions answering questions in mechanical-like responses with some of the oldest clichés around in world rugby.

The magic of 2009 and what the Springboks achieved this year is quickly turning into a bit of nightmare for Peter de Villiers and his management team.

Players are breaking down left, right and centre and none of the stars of the 2009 season look anywhere close to on top of their game.

Is it a surprise that some of the very few stars of this end-of-year tour can be counted on one hand? And that none of them will include names like John Smit, Victor Matfield, Bakkies Botha, Fourie du Preez and the guys that took Springbok rugby to new heights in 2009? Well not when you consider the warnings that were sounded well before the Boks went on tour.

We are blaming the failures of this current tour on everything from player selection to poor tactics, where in fact this has very little to do with the actual cause of the problem and that is how we manage our top professional rugby players.

De Villiers has a point in where he says that the top players must be rested in our domestic competitions and not on tours, but in my opinion he is farting against thunder and complaining about something that has been an issue for years in South African rugby – union before country – and I cannot see SA Rugby wrestling the power away from unions very soon.

The point here is very simple, if we are to believe rugby is a professional sport today we need to treat our players, our assets, professionally – and that means we must ensure they are at optimal levels of conditioning whenever they take the field at the highest level of the game, test match rugby.

For now, expect advice from guys like Prof. Noakes to continue to fall on deaf ears and prepare yourself for another dip in Springbok rugby after such a great high.

In the meantime, has anyone got an idea of what the winning Lotto numbers will be tonight because I think I have a better chance of winning that than witnessing a change in scenery on the rugby front…

37 Responses to We have been warned

  • 1

    6, 13, 22, 33, 34, 46

    Hehehe

  • 2

    Simple SMILEYS (not all 202 of them) back on and functioning for the moaning ninnies who like them !
    đŸ˜†

    đŸ˜€

  • 3

    Morne, net een vraag, dan is ek bereid om jou en prof. Noakes se teorie te oorweeg:

    Is die ‘fatigue’ van rugby spelers as rede dat hul al slegter begin speel, ‘n wĂªreldwye verskynsel, of tref dit net SA rugbyspelers, spesifiek ons Bokke ?

  • 4

    đŸ™‚

    Toets net

  • 5

    Time to rest those players. Let them come back 2-3 weeks into S14.

  • 6

    @bdb: tweede toets

  • 7

    @bdb:

    BDB,

    In my limited experience in conditioning and rehab of rugby players and other athletes one thing is a given, every athlete or player is different so the thresholds and limits of each player will be different.

    What there is no denying of however is that the human body has a limit.

    The only way to asses what that limit is would be to gather as much data of that player as you can and note changes he physically undergoes.

    You will find that recovery periods might be short for some than others, or longer than average for the next guy.

    When I helped compile position specific and player specific training programmes I had to establish a core first, a sort of see where you are now before we can devise a training and diet plan to get where you want to be whether that be speed, leg strength or whatever you are looking to improve – without this base you are grasping at straws and programmes whether it is the actual gym and training programmes or conditioning programmes or even just recovery programmes or periods become ineffective.

    The thing I told every single guy I worked with was to not bullshit me into the information I required, because he would effectively only be bullshitting himself and we won’t be able to achieve the results we want if we start from the wrong base or core.

    The human body is both a simple but also a very complex and wonderful thing where if I, from what I know (data gathered from the player either personally or through information supplied) devise any sort of program to achieve whatever result and that program is based on the wrong information (sucking shit out of your thumb) you will only be able to fool the human body for so long before he tunes you ‘fok of tjom ek het nou genoeg gehad’ and breaks down!

    This is where Noakes rightly mentioned that we need to gather as much data from guys to not only pick up, but predict trends in this area as to where and when and possibly why the body at times are not performing at its optimum level, or a level it did 3 months ago.

    According to this data you can plan and protect, and obviously prolong an athletes career and not only ensure he is always 100% conditioned for the job at hand when asked to play, but almost never drops from that level as you can identify the warning signs early.

    Once a body is broken, it is broken buddy and then it is too late, and the scary part is, I reckon some of our Boks currently has reached the point of no return but that is just a general observation, not a scientific one.

  • 8

    Players are very tried. Now cant see Victor even having a rest against Italy if Bekker is injured. If Bekker is injure Victor should just rest this whole week. No need to train he needs the rest more and some of the others too.

    After we play Ireland the Boks that have played all year need to rest and not be rushed back into training for the S14. Need 5 weeks rest at least.

    No Boks must play in the Currie Cup next year at all.

    Bigger squads may help on these tours too. More rest in the S14 too and all S14 sides should have more than just one bye. Maybe a two week break. Not one after the other but one after a few weeks then later in the comp.

    CJ never contributed too much so if he is injured have no problem with that. Bring in WP. Nel for the bench. H. Van der Merwe is not a TH.

  • 9

    @MornĂ©: alles goed en wel, maar die punt wat ek wil maak is, dat as dieselfde geld vir Aussies, AB’s en Europa, dan maak dit die speelveld gelyk. As almal te veel rugby speel, dan is almal moeg en daarom het niemand ‘n verskoning nie.

    Dalk moet daar een rugbyseisoen wees vir die NH en die SH, dan is almal ewe moeg op dieselfde tyd, iets soos:

    Jan-Mei: S14 en European cup
    Jun-Aug: ses nasie en 3N
    Sept- Okt: al die lande se provinsiale kompetisies, soos CC, Air NZ, Heineken, ens.
    Nov: oorsese toere, een jaar van die NH spanne na die SH, en volgende jaar die SH na die NH

  • 10

    @bdb:

    Die Aussies het nie ‘n local competition nie, hulle speel Super rugby, Tri-Nations en dis dit.

    Die AB’s trek hulle top spelers uit hulle weergawe van die Currie Cup en onthou hulle spelers het ook die central contracting system (ek dink hulle finaal was op dieselfde Saterdag wat die AB’s en Aussies in Japan gespeel het?).

    In England en Europe baklei die klubs en nasionale unies nou al vir jare oor speler beskikbaarheid.

    Eenvoudig gestel, ons speel ons spelers in die grond in hier in SA.

  • 11

    @Morné:

    Rugby Princess can confirm but as far as I know the NZ’landers put more value in the Ranfury Shield than their Air New Zealand Cup!!!

    And for them only the Super 14 counts together with tests. They are not as passionate as Saffa’s about their local comp like we are about the CC.

  • 12

    Whichever way you look at it, its mismanagement.
    We are simply still not professionals in a professional sport.
    Poor long term planning with player resources, poor game strategic planning, poor technical application and so on.
    Blame those who are highly paid to act as professionals but simply don,t fully understand the concept.
    I am not smug about the fact that I predicted what would happen on this tour.
    I am gatvol of how we run our rugby.
    And no, I am not anti PDV, it is not personal and there are more people to blame besides him, but if you want to be the best then you have to have exceptional thinkers who make key decisions about the future, and we simply don’t have them in our current coaching and management, and that is before we even get to the rugby politics!!
    Simply put, we are stuffing doff!!

  • 13

    @Morné: Would you say the Bulls played their best rugby in week 15 and 16 of the Super 14 this year?

  • 14

    The test team needs rest and thats about it. They are still good players as they where in the Tri Nations. You dont become bad overnight.

    Its about managing the players we have. I don’t see a talent crisis in SA, i see lots of potensial that needs to be nurtured.

  • 15

    @superBul:

    No I think that was just the culmination.

    I think they really hit top form from their tour already with just the one hick-up against the Highlanders where they lost the plot.

    Funnily enough, I predicted the Bulls SA’s best hope prior to the competition largely based on what you read up top here too and settled combinations…

  • 16

    @Snoek:

    I see we have a comments button, but does it work?

  • 17

    @Snoek: I mean reply button, and its almost there.

  • 18

    @Morné: I have to go back to work will read your article again, but momentum and getting a player match hardened is a big part of getting it right. Dont know if it was a Tim Noakes study a few years back but it was about a players biorhythms and getting the team on a up to get the type of result we got in the final.

    The bio rhythms was divided in mental , physical and something else , but we will talk later , bye for now.

  • 19

    @superBul:

    The whole point is not only to prevent burn-out, that in itself is but one aspect of the bigger problem.

    The idea is to get people or players into a position where they are optimally conditioned to perform at their best when they are selected and this includes a whole scope of factors including what you eluded to in biorythms, mental readiness, physical readiness and conditioning as well as some very basic rugby fundamentals such as optimum combination identification and selection and playing to your strengths.

    Believe me any fool can design a winning game plan on paper and study opponents to identify weaknesses, to implement it is where we fall short because simply put, we are short-sighted.

  • 20

    @Morné:

    Tim made mention of this where our Boks (and in your example the Bulls) will reach a peak in their physical ability and execution of game plans or aspects of their game plan and the game of rugby in general.

    Once you get there, the trick is to perfect what you achieved or the level where you find yourself at.

    There is not much any coach can tell Victor about line outs, much less ‘coach’ him in this area of his game, but unless Victor keeps re-inventing himself or stops ‘perfecting’ the art other players will soon study him, copy him, improve on his ability and eventually beat him.

  • 21

    @Morné:

    And for Victor to stay on top of his game where he can concentrate 100% on perfecting the art, he needs to be in peak mental and physical condition to execute this. And this ties back to player burn-out.

  • 22

    @Morné:
    Exactly.
    If as a player or coach you dont constantly evolve, you very soon end up being overtaken by those who have out thought you.
    This is what most people just dont get about professionalism.
    It is no different in business.
    Sit still for a while and the opposition take you out!!

  • 23

    @tight head:
    but
    isnt NOW the best time to “stagnate” … given the time available to recover from the slump?

  • 24

    @Ashley:
    Hey Ash.
    Who wants to stagnate?
    Nobody.

  • 25

    @MornĂ©: Morne, jy moet ophou om Matfield en die ander Bulle aan te moedig om nog meer te strewe na ‘perfection’ … jy gaan die wp ouens moedeloos maak, want dan wen hul volgende jaar weer nie die curriebeker of S14 nie … đŸ˜‰

  • 26

    Thanks for a great article Morne. I can only confirm much of what has been written.

    The reason why I know about this condition is that I coached myself as a runner – a very dangerous position – and managed to run myself into total exhaustion, a condition we now call overtraining. I wrote a chapter on overtraining in the first edition of Lore of Running in 1985. To my knowledge it was the first popular article on the topic published for non-scientists in book form. At the time many runners said it was ridiculous – how could you train yourself into exhaustion? But we were able to show (and were the first to do so) that the functioning of a certain part of the brain – the hypothalamus – was impaired in runners who were overtrained.
    Thus we established that the condition is real and not a figment of the athlete’s imagination.

    More importantly I worked with Bruce Fordyce and Paula Newby-Fraser during those years. Bruce won the Comrades Marathon 9 times because he was meticulous in his preparation and never raced more than a maximum of 2 races per year. He also restricted his very intensive training to about 8 weeks in April and May each year. Every time I say that the Boks are playing too much rugby, Bruce is the first to phone me and say: “You are absolutely right, Tim. Keep on until they listen”.

    I specifically advised Paula to reduce her training loads (but to increase the intensity) when she started to overtrain in the early part of her career. She then won the Hawaiian Ironman Triathlon a record 8 times and was voted the Female Endurance Athlete of the Century (or was it Millenium) in one poll. In time she sent me a signed photo with the caption “I did it on less”.

    I first realized that the European end of the year rugby tour is a potential disaster in 1998 when the Boks tried to extend their winning streak one game too far and lost to England. The result was that Henri Honiball and Gary Teichmann (as described in Teichmann’s book and elsewhere) were absolutely exhausted by the amount they played in 1998 and neither ever fully recovered. This had a critical effect on our losing the 1999 World Cup. Had the same team been allowed to play through 1999 (as a result of proper rest), surely we would have been more competitive in 1999? (I know that this analysis is complicated by the dropping of Andre Venter and ultimately Teichmann for Skinstadt etc but the real point is that the manner in which the Boks were so dominant in 1998 should have been sustainable through 1999 if the process had been properly managed and especially if Honiball had been protected). I believe that with his current knowledge, Coach Mallett would have rested the players more in 1998 than he did then.

    Only in 2006 did a Springbok coach finally listen and even then Jake White almost lost his job as a result. The reality is that that tour was pretty successful despite the fact that a majority of the top line Boks stayed at home. The irony is that now people are saying that Pieter de Villiers should be replaced BECAUSE he took the top Boks on tour.

    I have two observations about last night’s game. First about a year ago Brendan Venter devoted an entire column in the Cape Argus ridiculing my ideas about the need to rest the Boks. He further suggested that I used unscientific and inadequate logic to come to that conclusion. The article can be found on-line. He essentially stated that the more rugby players played, the better they became.

    It seems that last night he was the recipient of a special present from a team in disarray as a result of playing too much rugby (but not having played together enough as would occur if the end of year tours were properly planned). It will be very interesting to see if Venter manages his team properly during the season or if Saracens become progressively less effective as the season progresses and they fail to fulfill his expectation that the more they train, the better they will play. If he still believes that it is not possible to overtrain/overstress a rugby player, like the current Springboks, he may fail to monitor their physical status on a daily basis. If so the team will pay the consequences later in the season. On the other hand if he has changed his beliefs, the team might stand a chance (according to my understanding that players need to be properly managed if they are to survive a season of English club rugby, just as is the case for the Springboks).

    The second observation was that the Boks seemed to tire after the first half. If this is so, it means that it is not just playing many match minutes in a season that is the only problem but that playing too many CONSECUTIVE MATCHES (ie the Currie Cup matches alone even after a mid season break) and that this explains their fatigue. This would be consistent with my belief that humans can generally play and train really hard for about 10 weeks before they start to show signs of fatigue. (New Zealand coaches reckon that a player in the high impact positions – 6,7, 9 and 12 most especially – can play 7 consecutive weeks before requiring a break).

    I also made the point that a completely professional structure like that present in NFL football would not have allowed all this to happen. Even then we are not talking “rocket science” – just common sense knowledge, freely available and practiced in many sporting codes around the world. The information needed to manage the fitness of the Boks and to minimize their risk of becoming exhausted is available. It is not used because of the fight between the Provinces and SA Rugby, neither of which groups (for different reasons) ever wants to know exactly how tired are the Springboks.

    Paul Treu has used these systems – developed in South Africa for South Africans – for the past year. The result was that he was able to use the fewest number of players (16) of any team competing in the Sevens competition in the 2008/9 season. Of course his team also won the competition.

    The difference of course is that his players are centrally-contracted and it is in everyone’s interest to keep them fresh for the major competitions.

    Finally it is not relevant what other country’s players do or do not do. Australia rests their players for a minimum of 63 days per year. By legal contract they may not be contacted during that period or have anything to do with rugby. Even then they have to manage their players carefully to avoid fatigue and breakdown. What New Zealand do is also not truly relevant since the Islanders train in a quite different way than do most of the rest of the rugby world with an emphasis on high intensity training of short duration and a greatly reduced appetite for training aimed at developing endurance.

    We know what our South African players need and how to manage them. All we need is the opportunity to do so.

    But I fear that it might now already be too late for the 2011 World Cup.

  • 27

    Can I ask anyone who doubts Tim’s theory to apply it to themselves.

    No, seriously. Go to a gym, or with a friend to a gym. Whatever you do, find a bench, a bar and some weights. Now, find out how much you, no, sorry, your body, can push. Cause lets face it, if we left it up to ourselves, we would all be pushing 160 kg’s in 20 rep sets. No problem.

    But back to reality. Lay down on that bench, all by yourself, no spotter, no rack to put the bar on. Start pushing. No, you can do it, push more, just one more, and one more, and one more. Have the bar come crashing down on your chest yet? No, well then, whats the problem? You’re not over training, you are getting better! Feel those pecks work!!! Up to 16 reps? Good, now push for 32. Why stop? Why take a rest? Why take a brake?
    Oops, ummm, yeah, it hurts when 70kg of steel come crashing down on your chest doesn’t it? Cant get it off? Too bad, you pushed yourself too hard mate… Now you have to live with it.

    Before anyone says this is ridiculous, its not. It happened to me when I just started training… I put on way more than I could, why more than experts would suggest. Luckily I had two strong spotters next to me, but I don’t even want to think of what might have happened had I not. Eventually I got up to pushing that weight, but that was after months of pacing myself, following chest orientated exercise programs, biding my time. Listening to the experts.

    Its a valid comparison. Push your body and you will and can hurt itself.

  • 28

    by the way, no fatigue? So what happend to Juan smit, that was nothing. Collapsing after a game, we should just forget it…

  • 29

    Excellent, Prof Tim Noakes, posting. When will we learn? I thought Jake White set the trend regarding player management and listening to Prof Noakes. Apparently not, we just slipped back to where we were in 2003 regarding player management.

    I believe that if PDV(because it’s ultimately his call) properly manages the bulk of the current Bok team we will stand a good chance to win back to back world cups. The success in 2009 was awesome (Great stuff PDV). Talk of replacing the stalwarts now is ludicrous. They are fatigued and should be managed for the world cup. Introducing a new group of players now for 2011 is just not going to work.

  • 30

    Thanks for the post Prof.

    It just re-affirms again what a lot of us believe and also gives us some insight into actual situations you dealt with and what happens in other countries.

    And just for everyone’s general information, the NZ’landers train very differently. I have started studying NZ training methods about 3 years ago and can tell you it is nothing like how we train in SA.

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