Not a ruck or a tackle, but what happens to the human body when subjected to excessive workloads for too long.
I read the following article by Professor Tim Noakes in which he discusses the physical and mental state of our Bok players.
“I read with interest the reviews of the player’s individual performances and long for someone who will try to analyze why players who a few months ago were the best in the world are now suddenly scoring 4 out of 10 in this game. And no one seems to acknowledge that some if not all of these same players have shown a progressive fall off in performance in the past month or so. Is it simply because they have now suddenly become lazy and have forgotten how to play rugby?
Jacques Fourie’s statement that the Boks are professional rugby players and there are no excuses is not really very helpful. For it is a conversation stopper; it invites no further comment as if that is all the explanation that is required. But unfortunately it is not that simple.
For what a professional rugby player should be saying is: Yes we played poorly and these are the reasons (not excuses). And the first reason is that we are all exhausted and instead of running 3km at 100% of my top speed, I only managed 1.5km etc and I spent far too much time walking and jogging etc. I also exerted only 80% of my usual force in my contact situations etc.
In other words, a truly professional team would be in control of all the facts and would be able to give the complete breakdown of each player’s actual contributions to the game – not just in such gross measures as tackles missed etc but actual ground covered and at what speeds; work down in the rucks and mauls etc etc. For we know that the first effect of fatigue is that players spend much less time sprinting. So why did Victor Matfield report that they Boks always seemed to be one second behind the play? For the very reason that they are too tired to do the really fast movements that make the difference between winning and losing. Apparently Heinrich Brussouw was the only Bok who was working at full speed.
But if you don’t measure it, how can you ever draw the correct conclusions?
The reality is that if the Boks were playing in US gridiron football there would be no debate. All the facts would be extracted from each game; each player’s contribution would be minutely detailed, most especially the amount of time they spend in really fast movements, and there would be no need to make ill-informed conclusions. Each player would be accountable for his contribution and those who failed to do what is necessary would not be playing in the next game. Simple. No guess work; no excuses; no subjective opinions (as are all those expressed in this blog) just hard facts as befits a professional sport.
What really frustrates me is that if you do not make the correct diagnosis, you will fail to institute the correct treatment and the long term consequences will not be what you expected.
What I have learned in my years of studying sport is that the human body is not like some piece of mechanical equipment that you can simply take to the mechanic when it breaks down and then expect it to come back as good as ever when a few broken parts are replaced. The human body does not work like that. It can take only so much abuse (different for different individuals) before it breaks down. And then there is no recovery. The problem is that the moment of the final breakdown cannot be predicted.
There are numerous examples of this. The Wallabies were unbeaten in 1994, yet in 1995 they were not competitive in the World Cup. The 2003 English team went to pieces the year after winning the 2003 World Cup. The Springboks in 1998 equalled the world record for consecutive victories but a year later they were not as dominant, losing a World Cup they might reasonably have been expected to win. The cost of the world record was that 2 crucial players were played into the ground and were never again the same force in SA rugby. As far as individual players go there are numerous examples of players who have one last fantastic year and then their careers fall apart the following year. The point is that there is no warning of when this will happen.
Last year for example Conrad Jantjies was the first choice Springbok fullback and he put in a lot of game time; this year he has played very little. Bryan Habana’s season this year was only “saved” when he suffered a hand injury that forced him to rest for 4 weeks; a break that turned his season around. Schalk Burger played a great deal of rugby in 2008 but had a quiet 2009. Many will presume that all he and Bakkies and Victor and the other senior Springboks need is a few days in the sun on their farms with their families and all will be ready for another stunning year in 2010.
But that sadly is not going to happen. There will be consequences for overplaying the senior players in this way in 2009. For there is only so much abuse that each player’s body will accept before finally it says enough. And all the motivation in the world at that point will not save the player.
I learned all this by observing marathon runners over the years. Each marathon runner has only a certain number of world class marathons that he or she will ever achieve in his or her life – usually about 6. After that it is all down hill. Those who watched the New York City Marathon last Sunday would have seen the world’s greatest female marathon runner of all time, Paula Radcliffe, reach the end of her career as the very best female runner. She ran a shocker; not because she is lazy or unmotivated but because her body has finally said ENOUGH – I HAVE NO MORE TO GIVE. And she absolutely did not see it coming since before the race she was talking confidently about winning the next Olympic Marathon in London in 2012. But that will simply not happen as her body now has no more to give.
The analogy for the Boks is this: There are only so many years of rugby that each player can sustain. And no one can predict when this great crop of current players will finally fail physically. But it is going to happen. And no one close to the players or the team will see it coming (since they have to believe that they can continue driving these players without regard for the future) unless they are measuring the variables that can track that failure as it develops. Once the final irreversible failure happens, management will be totally surprised at how quickly it happens and how they are powerless to reverse what has happened, regardless of what they do. And with that failure the 2011 World Cup will drift away over the horizon.
The point is that the longer this player abuse continues, the quicker will be their final demise.
The difficult decision that the management faces now is what to do next. The long term answer is simple. Send the players who did not perform on Friday in Toulouse home and replace them with fresher players. Whether or not those players win against Italy and Ireland is not material.
For what is at stake is something much more precious. The continual survival of one of the greatest teams ever to represent this country.
But a team that greed, ego and ignorance will destroy in the next 12 months unless something changes very, very quickly.”
We have heard this before. Are we now seeing it too?
What complicates matters however, is that different players seem to have different optimum workload capacities.
On top of that, the powers that be have unlimited appetites for more and more revenue………..
Tim had his theories been shown up before. Although he talks sense it is not so simple. These players are not machines that can switch on and off. They have desires and passion and confidence, all these things also make them tick. Then most of all the team must play together.
The French played the game of their lifes, the Boks missed some crucial players. Also our momentum was disrupted right trough the game , with blood injuries , cards and a inconsistent ref. It was also our first game together for weeks. So to use this game as a proof of tiredness is absolute absurd.
The players did not miss tackles at the end, they fought right tru, the 78th minute we were on the attack, if FdP did not knock that kick ahead he would have won this one, then all theories would fly out of the window.
True players are playing a lot and SARU must reduce the games , but what do they do they just add more.
“There are numerous examples of this. The Wallabies were unbeaten in 1994, yet in 1995 they were not competitive in the World Cup. The 2003 English team went to pieces the year after winning the 2003 World Cup. The Springboks in 1998 equalled the world record for consecutive victories but a year later they were not as dominant, losing a World Cup they might reasonably have been expected to win. The cost of the world record was that 2 crucial players were played into the ground and were never again the same force in SA rugby”
In a team sport all the above statements can not only be atributed to player burnout or players past their peak. Look at the opponents that ended this runs. Were they not just more passionate? Did they maybe study the the game plan? when one wins so much your pattern can be studied.
Heinrich Brussow said
“It was the most physical game in terms of the rucks that I’ve ever played in. I wasn’t tired from running but I was from the physical battle at the rucks because they had so much passion and just kept coming for 80 minutes.”
What Heinrich did not say , he is too humble, he gave it back to them for the full 80 minutes. The French guys took us on in our game and won, finish and klaar.
I would rather not argue with a sport scientist, who has over many years studied the limits of human’s physical and mental endurance when subjected to the prolonged and intense battering that professional sport dishes out.
Heinrich Brussouw is relatively new to international rugby. Apart from his exceptional skills, he does everything at maximum effort and punches way above his weight amongst players twice his size.
The question is this.
Do the rest of the players, hit the rucks as hard and as often as we have become used to from them?
Do they exhibit the same strength and impact at collisions as they are capable of?
Is the fact that we are rucked off the ball so frequently and with such contempt due to a game plan that dictates committing fewer players than the opposition, or are our players simply too tired and drained to get to the rucks and compete effectively?
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Hmmm…guys, Tim’s theories have been applied before in terms of optimum game time.
Last was RWC 07 ~ players were rested and the playing time managed with the peak to come at RWC, and the number of games to peak designed to culminate at the final.
Jake at least listened.
Proffie, just finished watching the Pacquia – Cotto fight. How many top fights would these guys have in them?
I believe that the onus is on the player to be honest with the coach and tell him that he is tired and should not tour. But with the huge amounts of money being paid to the players there is no chance of this happening.
Simply put, there is too much rugby being played. And now we have a S15 with another match.
Super,
Exactly which of Tim’s theories have been shown up before?
What is happening right now has been predicted some time ago.
2010 will be a nightmare year for the Boks mark my words.
Some answers to these interesting observations:
SuperBul: When a team has been successful for a long time, they become at risk of what has been called the “Disease of Success”. Few teams survive the Disease of Success as you note. But to avoid the Disease, the team has to go beyond winning. They have to understand that they can only survive if their goal become not winning, but perfection. You gave a whole series of reasons why the Boks might have won against France. But that is not the issue. Were they perfect on the night? No. Their poor performance is a harbinger of the march of the dread Disease of Success.
But you suggest that I use this one game as evidence for fatigue. Not so. To even someone with a limited observational capacity like myself it seems quite obvious that some players are not playing with the same intensity that they did against the British and Irish Lions for example. One of the senior managers at the Blue Bulls wrote an article saying that his team was lucky to win the Currie Cup since some key players were showing clear evidence of fatigue in both the semi-finals and the finals of that competition. He even mentioned players by name. He is clearly much closer to the problems that the Blue Bulls have identified than am I.
This week I also received a letter from someone with inside knowledge who complained that in his opinion, some Boks are carrying the burden of others who are fatigued and not performing to their usual standard.
So no, it is not just my opinion that the team is jaded. But more to the point – the whole focus of my article was to say that we should not even be having this debate. If the team was run like an NFL team, there would be no need for any debate about whether or not some players are tired. The data would be there to answer the question. And if we had those data, and if they showed that the players were tired and underperforming, then they should be sent home before any more damage is done to their future careers and to the future of this team in 2010 and 2011.
It may indeed by finished and klaar. But that has yet to be seen. If the players who are underperforming now are not rested for 8 weeks before the start of the 2010 season, then it may indeed be finished and klaar for this team. At least as far as their prospects go for winning the 2011 Rugby World Cup.
SA Barbarians: Thank you. Exactly the questions that need to be asked. And answered. In my view the answer is simple: A Springbok is outperformed in the contact situation when his brain has had enough because he is either exhausted or he is becoming a victim of the Disease of Success. Either way, the message he needs to receive is not – that is fine, carry on. Rather it MUST be – we have a joint problem and what are we going to do about it? If the cause is not addressed, the team will fall apart in a fraction of the time that it took to establish it.
Trupisero: Great question. I have no idea and am not aware that anyone has studied the question scientifically.
Loosehead: Most of the Boks will tour if given the option. They cannot be objective. They are also addicted to playing a match each week since that is what defines them as human beings. That is an addiction that is difficult to break. Ironically Heinrich Brussouw is one player who does not fit this stereotype (there may be others – I only know this to be true of this player). I believe he would not tour if he felt he could not give 100+%. So you are correct. The decision has to be taken by management.
I have been saying since 1998 that the end of year tour is not properly managed by SA Rugby. Each year a team should be prepared specifically for the end of year tour and only those Springboks who have played less than their quota of matches for the year (this number can be quite easily arrived at for each player) should be allowed on the tour. In this way we will not end up with the situation that occurred in the World Cup in 2007 when there was clearly a large discrepancy between the efficiency of the team that had played together for so many games and the other players who had little cohesion since they had played together so infrequently.
Morne: The first team to suffer will be the Blue Bulls if they do not rest their returning Springboks for 6-8 weeks and allow them to miss the opening matches of the Super 15 (or to play only for a limited number of minutes in those games). The Bulls best hope of defending their Super 14 crown is to start slowly and build up with the goal of a second-place finish in the league. Then they might have a chance of repeating. If they commit all their Springboks to the first games without a proper rest, they will likely finish fourth or lower. The Stormers had a shocking 2009 season in my view, at least in part, because they failed to rest their returning Springboks properly and rushed them back into training and match play too early in the season. The Sharks and the Cheetahs must also rest those of their returning Springboks who accumulated a large game time in 2009 so that they can also start the Super-15 slowly. The Stormers so not have anyone other than Jean de Villiers who put in major game time in 2009 and so they begin the Super-15 with an advantage over the Bulls and the Sharks.
I agree that even this will not be enough to insure that the Boks are competitive in the 2010 Tri-Nations and beyond. There are now some older Bok players who need to be protected in the Super 15 and their game time restricted if they are to survive the 2010 season, let alone be in perfect condition for 2011.
Thanks for the opportunity to respond to these interesting questions and observations.
It will be interesting to see if these predictions hold true.
Tim Noakes.
Mike Tyson vs. Lennox Lewis. I believe that despite being a drol, Tyson could have beaten Lewis. Lewis was younger, but not that much. He had a longer reach, but then Tyson was fighting against guys taller than him his whole life.
Tyson, James Braddock and Ali are some of the best examples in sport of what you are talking about. Even Lance Armstrong.
Tyson had just taken too many knocks. His body said enough. He stopped boxing, now he leads a quite life.
Ali took the knocks despite his body saying NO (mostly against Foreman). Now he cant even hold a glass of water.
Braddock took a forced break through a hand injury and came back a champ.
3 Great boxers, three different paths, three results. All support the fatigue theory.
Things like guts and glory, knuckle down, bite the bullet, cowboys don’t cry… thats what describe the current frame of mind of most Bok supporters. And, I am sorry to say this, but I think it is as much a cultural thing as it is a sport opinion.
BUT, we cannot let this frame of mind dominate what is ultimately in our best interest. No matter how strong and willed you are, no one can walk through a brick wall.
Thanks prof Noakes for sharing your knowledge personally with us on the blog. I actually called this loss by the boks in advance.
They looked flat footed, and the descisions is questionable on the field. But give the boks credit that they gave all they had for 80 mins, it just wasn’t enough this time.
I agree with Tim Noakes. The body can take just so much before it finally breaks down.
I know, ran marathons for 20 years. So many lost count. Read many of Tim’s articles during my running years had I taken note then maybe I would not have such bad knees.
So when should the Boks rest? I for one always want the best so play for Springboks. So the question is when should the players rest? I think none of the Boks should play in the CC. After the Tri-Nations that is when they should be taking a break. If they had done so this year maybe they would have had about a 4 week break before having to start to train for the eoyt. Then take another 4 week or 5 week break after the eoyt.
S14 which will become S15 takes out far more on the players bodies than the Tri-Nations. We start playing mid Feb until end of May. Non-stop rugby at a very high level. Probably the toughest competition in the world then next the Tri-Nations which is also the toughest rugby in the world to play. Maybe the answer is bigger squads. Also maybe a compulsory break for two weeks to be taken by all the S14 teams. I know all teams get a bye ( a weeks break) maybe a two week break would be better. Not two straight after each other but a bye after a few weeks then another a bit later in the comp.
For the Springboks we should never play our under strength side. We can test out new players in mid-week games as is happening right now. The way it used to be.
Rest though is very important without it you can never ever perform to your best.
So if Boks don’t play CC then they will have a 4 week break then again about a 4 or 5 week break at end of year. Also the two week break I mentioned during the S14 soon to be S15. That would give players about 10 weeks break.
Will that work Tim? Or should the break be all at once like you mentioned above about a 8 week break at the end of year? Also bigger squads have to be the answer.
Ras_Puma @ 14
if i’m correct, then the last time most of those guys had a break (barring injuries, of course) was in 2006 when they didnt play cc and most of them were rested for the EOY tour. in the build-up to 2006 and after that the majority of these players played in each and every game. i think sarugby with the unions will have to sit down and decide on giving these guys a rest … as soon as possible … either they’ll have to be phased into the s14 very slowly or given a complete break at the start thereof … friday was a clear indication of what might happen if we dont do that!!
oh, btw
check out this thread
As die moegheid van ons spelers ‘n feit is, hoe laat die unies en SARU toe dat 4 van ons topspelers, nog op 5 Desember teen die Barbarians speel ?
Ontrek vir Vic, Bakkies, FDP (wat lyk my die hele seisoen met ‘n seer skouer speel?) en Habana (hammie?), aan hierdie vertoonwedstryd.
Of is dit nou geld wat die laaste sê het ?
Ash,
I was lucky enough to have been involved in rugby analysis in the past and some of this included conditioning training, rehab etc.
Obviously I learned a hell of a lot of the human body but probably only about 20% of what Prof Noakes knows, hell maybe even only 5%!!!
The point is, when it became so blooming obvious to me, a lackey, how the sport affected the human body just imagine what proper analysis can do?
It is very important to remember that each individual is different too, the ‘quota’ of games for one player will not be the same as for another.
FOr instance, Fourie prior to this tour only played 23 games which is not much, but due to so many factors surrounding 2009 and the individual, Fourie said he was knackered.
I saw Victor at the semi-final at Newlands and made a comment on this very blog that Victor was dead on his feet.
Greenpoint,
You summed it up buddy, us fans has the knuckle down, balls to the wall, and get your shit up and go attitude which is a very amateurish outlook on a professional sport, and that is just it, we do not realise how professional and scientific professional sport and athletes are!!!
Rugby is dealing not only with amateurism in administration, but also very much so from fans, the media, and believe it or not, some coaches too.
Oh and thanks Prof. Noakes.
These articles are most insightfull and we should have more of this!
Ras_Tim Noakes @ 10
thanks for the “article” 😆
hope to read more stuff written by you on this site in future
oh, and Ras_Tim
if making a comment … please keep it short and sweet? 😉
18 – Morne, Absolutely. We need a lot more articles by Prof. Noakes. Really enjoy the one above.
I have read many articles by Tim Noakes during the years I ran. The body can take just so much before it breaks down.
Also I question why S. Burger still plays after having his neck fused? Crazy. He is going to suffer huge even before he is 40 years old. I have a slipped disc in my C 6/7 area. Had traction there 3 times. It has helped but a few weeks back lifted something heavy and the damn neck is giving me trouble again and especially the lower back.
Once the neck is fused the disc above and below take a lot of strain and they eventually crumble. It will last between 12 to 15 years max before those start to go. Now with Burger playing rugby with a fused neck those discs will never last that long. If I was him I would never haver returned to play rugby. Or once he won a gold medal at the world cup should have called it quits. Going to suffer big time long before he gets old. Butch James too playing with those knees. Going to probably have to have replacements by the age of 40. Those replacements only last 15 years then you need to have another replacement. The 2nd op is never as successful as the first. That is why I am hanging on to do my replacement knees. Far, far too much marathon running cost me with my knees. Snow skiing too.
We have to know when it is too much.
Tim Noakes knows what he is talking about.
There is none so blind as those who do not want to see Puma.
Two areas I found people are absolutely ignorant on is this, the Noakes factor with the body taking a pounding and how to condition yourself and the second thing mental coaching.
Perhaps because it is ‘new’ to rugby?
Or simply because we do not understand it, we shoot it off as rubbish from the outset.
With the type of:
“Ek het nooit daai kak nodig gehad toe ek rugby gespeel het in my jong dae nie!”
Attitude.
I am a great believer of Dr. Noakes take on the physical AND pshycological barriers.
Guys, these okes play on a level where every game is a bruising on the body and mind. At that level they should probably not play more than 24 games per annum. Add a further 10 weeks for intensive training, that leaves 18 weeks per annum. Sounds about right.
21 – Morne, Exactly we need to have our bodies conditioned all the time no matter what sport we play. Rugby especially as it is a contact sport. Mental coaching is a huge factor in most sports.
Rest is the most important thing in sports. I learned the hard way. Now paying for it.
So when do our rugby players rest that is the big question. For tests I always like to see our best players playing.
I mentioned where I would like to see our players rested in my post 20. During the CC Boks should not play. There we could get at least a 4 week break after the Tri-Nations then again after we have played the eoyt we take another 4 week break or 5. Also would like to see all the S14 teams getting a two week break during the competition. Broken up. One week after a few weeks in the comp then a bit later towards the end. That way players would have about a 10 week break. Not all at once but broken up. I think it is better than all at once but Prof Noakes will know better than me.
We need to look after players like John, Victor, FdP, Bakkies, Juan and Habs if we want to see them in the next world cup at their best. If they don’t get enough rest they will never make that wc. Let alone next year.
Burger should esecially think about lots of rest. I worry he will suffer huge damage to that neck if he will carry on playing rugby, especially after having his neck fused so young.
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