Fri, 04 Sep 2009 01:31 

By Paul Dobson www.rugby365.com

There were only seven points between the two teams when the final whistle blew in Perth last week and Australia look to have a stronger team this time. That would suggest the strong possibility of an Australian victory.

Berrick Barnes is back at inside centre, and that’s better. Will Genia is at scrumhalf and that’s much better. Richard Brown is not playing, and that’s better. Tatafu Polota-Nau is at hooker and Drew Mitchell is on the wing, and one supposes that that is also better. That suggests a better team.

The only trouble is that there were not just seven points between the two teams in Perth. Australia scored 14 points in the last five minutes when South Africa were no longer playing their first team.

In Perth the Springboks were expansive and perhaps caught the Wallabies on the hop as they were expecting high kicks. It may well be different this time if the clouds send down their rain upon Suncorp Stadium.

Then not only rain will be falling from heaven but lofted kicks are likely to rain down on the Wallabies as well. Even with Barnes back and even without Frans Steyn the Springboks have the better kicking game – further, higher and more accessible to themselves. That could see the Springboks back to their winning formula at home.

If the Springboks find it hard to run with the ball, so will the Wallabies though the Wallabies have now scored five tries against the Springboks in two Tests – twice as many as the All Blacks managed. The Wallabies can score tries and do it from first phase.

The Wallabies may well again suffer in the line-outs but are likely to be better at the scrums – as they were at Newlands and as they were even more so at Subiaco Oval when they milked five penalties and two free kicked out of the Springboks scum.

Sanctions could count heavily against the Springboks if the bizarre Perth count is anything to go by. There it was 18-4 in penalties and free kicks whereas up till now the Springboks have been the most legal of the sides in Tri-Nations.  They have taken steps to get back to an even keel but playing away from home is, it often seems, a penalisable offence.

The Springboks showed in Perth that they, too, can score tries with two of their four from scrums but both of those two went through the vacant inside centre channel and with a cleverer player there this week that channel is likely to be sealed. Perhaps it will be back to the boot.

Tests between top teams often turn on a small occurrence, a moment of genius. Giteau and Barnes are capable of moments of genius and so are Du Preez, Fourie, Jean De Villiers and Bryan Habana. Then there is what is in the souls of the men playing.

In after-match talk you will have heard the clichés – going back to a drawing board, bad day at the office, all credit to and they wanted it more than we did. This surely will be a match that both sides will want – the Wallabies in desperation, at least to avoid more national contempt, and the Springboks to win that which they have in their grasp. A point will do it for the Springboks but you have the feeling that this band of clear-thinking, confident men will want more.

Players to Watch:

For Australia: You would watch Matt Giteau and Berrick Barnes of Australia, such talented players, both capable of opening up defences, as is Quade Cooper with his eccentric ways if he comes on. They are likely to be served more accurately and quickly than was happening in Perth.

For South Africa: On the Springbok side there is the controlling genius of Fourie du Preez and the distinct possibility that centres Jean de Villiers and Jaque Fourie are becoming an incisive force on attack.

Head to Head: The is the Front Row vs Front Row, which will be important. Young David Pocock against young Heinrich Brüssow will also be important. Matt Giteau vs Morné Steyn with Giteau likely to run better and Steyn likely to kick better.

Recent Results
2009: South Africa won 32-25 at Subiaco Oval, Perth
2009: South Africa won  at Newlands 29-17
2008: South Africa won 53-8 at Ellis Park, Johannesburg
2008: Australia won 27-15 at Absa Stadium, Durban
2008: Australia won 16-9 at Subiaco Oval, Perth
2007: South Africa won 22-19 at Newlands
2007: Australia won 25-17 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2006: South Africa won 24-16 at Ellis Park, Johannesburg
2006: Australia won 20-18 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2006: Australia won 49-0 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
2005: South Africa won 22-19 at Subiaco Oval, Perth 
2005: South Africa won 22-16 at Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
2005: South Africa won 33-20 at Ellis Park, Johannesburg
2005: Australia won 30-12 at Stadium Australia, Sydney

Prediction: Of course, the world of sport is unpredictable or at least difficult to predict. Last year Australia won by 12 points in Durban and then lost by 45 points in Johannesburg. Aware of the danger of predictions, we take South Africa to win by more than 10.

Teams:

Australia: 15 James O’Connor, 14 Lachie Turner, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Will Genia, 8 George Smith (captain), 7 David Pocock, 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 Mark Chisholm, 4 James Horwill, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Stephen Moore, 17 Pek Cowan, 18 Dean Mumm, 19 Wycliff Palu, 20 Luke Burgess, 21 Quade Cooper, 22 Peter Hynes.

South Africa: 15 Ruan Pienaar, 14 Odwa Ndungane, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Heinrich Brüssow, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 John Smit (captain), 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 Jannie du Plessis, 18 Danie Rossouw, 19 Schalk Burger, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Adi Jacobs, 22 Frans Steyn.

Date: Saturday, 5 September 2009
Kick-off: 20.05 (10.05 GMT)
Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Expected weather conditions: Thunderstorm with a 70 percent chance of rain, a high of 21°C, dropping to 13°C, and a northwester of 21 km/h dropping slightly
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England)
Assistant referees: Bryce Lawrence (New Zealand), Vinny Munro (New Zealand)
TMO: Chris Pollock (New Zealand)