20 Aug 2009
Paul Dobson
rugby365.com

The two teams have slipped behind South Africa on their trips to the Republic and now need as much winning as possible if they are to have a hope of winning the Tri-Nations.

There is a make-or-break feel about this match between the Wallabies and All Blacks in Sydney.

In addition, the Bledisloe Cup is at stake, and for that the Wallabies must win.

Make-or-break makes for desperation which can inspire or rattle. The rapid return of Daniel Carter suggests desperation, but he is a player more likely to inspire than get rattled.

The Wallabies look to be a side more likely to rattle.

Judged by their visits to South Africa there is nothing between the two teams, for both got hammered in the same sort of way – with one difference which may well be significant – the Wallabies were able to score two tries and do so from set pieces.

There was another difference which may be telling: the Wallabies, once Benn Alexander was on, scrummed appreciably better than the All Blacks had.

The teams fared equally badly against the Springbok line-out but when they met in Auckland, in the rain, the Wallaby line-out was considerably better than the All Blacks’.

But now the All Blacks have chosen three tall loose forwards, all of them good in the line-out – Kieran Read is on for out-of-sorts Rodney So’oialo, Richie McCaw and Jerome Kaino to go with Isaac Ross and Brad Thorn. The Wallabies have Rocky Elsom back, which may well make a significant difference if his match fitness and timing is up to scratch.

There may not be too much between the two sides when it comes to primary possession.

The contest for the post-tackle ball could be crucial. On present form it would seem that George Smith is more likely to do well than Richie McCaw, a contest between two captains who are two great ball-winners. McCaw has the advantage of being the accepted captain and also the player more likely to keep his cool. One way and another the post-tackle contests are likely to be shattering collisions which may well determine the outcome of the match.

Penalties may count. So far in three matches the All Blacks have conceded 39, the Wallabies 28 in two matches – not a great deal of difference, but the Wallabies have played both matches away and it is well known that home sides are penalised less than visiting sides.

Kicking counts. Both sides have two good boots each, both at posts and out of hand. Both sides have the useful right-foot left-foot combinations for kicking out of hand – Dan Carter and Luke McAlister for New Zealand and Matt Giteau and Berrick Barnes for Australia. When it comes to kicking at scrumhalf, Jimmy Cowan may be better though he has not had a great time of late.

Tries always count. The Wallabies have scored three tries in their two Tests, all three of them excellent tries of great skill and timing. The All Blacks have scored three tries in three matches, all of them well executed. Scoring tries has not been easy for either side – the pouring rain in Auckland and then living off scraps of possession in South Africa. This time it seems things will be drier than in Auckland and possession is likely to be more evenly distributed than in South Africa. The Wallabies have the clever inside backs who can create tries and forceful Adam Ashley-Cooper out wide while the Australia have Sitiveni Sivivatu gliding into spaces of his own creation.

Players to Watch: First there is Dan Carter (New Zealand). Every body wants to see him back in action. New Zealanders will watch with anxious hope, imminent opponents in anxious trepidation. You will see Matt Giteau (Australia) and wonder at his skills. You will also be aware of the skills of Berrick Barnes (Australia). You will want to see Sitiveni Sivivatu (New Zealand) striding calmly past opponents. You will also see Richie McCaw (New Zealand) and George Smith (Australia). The other forward likely to attract attention is tall, athletic, eager Isaac Ross (New Zealand). Teenage wonder James O’Connor (Australia) is certainly a player to watch, elusive on attack, strong in the tackle and with an eye to the half-chance.

Head to Head: The obvious Head to Head is Dan Carter (New Zealand) v Matt Giteau (Australia). Every New Zealander will tell you that Dan Carter is the best flyhalf in the world. Every Australian who knows about rugby will tell you that Giteau is the best in the world. Here were have the best in the world facing the best in the world, the one in the full flower of his ability, the other returning from injury. There could also be an interesting contest at inside centre between skilful Berrick Barnes (Australia) and muscular Luke McAlister (New Zealand) with Barnes more likely to step past McAlister than McAlister get through brave Barnes. Outside of them in-form, clever, smooth Conrad Smith (New Zealand) will be up against strong Adam Ashley-Cooper (Australia) who has come out of position to fill the big shoes of Stirling Mortlock.

Amongst the forwards the obvious contest is between the two captains, two great, experienced, respected, skilful players – Richie McCaw (New Zealand) and George Smith (Australia). There are other contests in the pack – Jerome Kaino (New Zealand) against Rocky Elsom (Australia), hard Brad Thorn (New Zealand) against tall James Horwill (Australia) and the clash between two tough hookers – Stephen Moore (Australia), who has been in good form and Andrew Hore (New Zealand) who has not.

For so many reasons it is a match to look forward to.

Results this century:
2009: New Zealand won 22-16 at Eden Park, Auckland
2008: New Zealand won 19-14 at Hong Kong Stadium
2008: New Zealand won 28-24 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
2008: New Zealand won 39-10 at Eden Park, Auckland
2008: Australia won 34-19 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2007: New Zealand won 26-12 at Eden Park, Auckland
2007: Australia won 20-15 at Cricket Ground, Melbourne
2006: New Zealand won 34-27 at Eden Park, Auckland
2006: New Zealand won 13-9 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
2006: New Zealand won 32-12 at Jade Stadium, Christchurch
2005: New Zealand won 34-24 at Eden Park, Auckland
2005: New Zealand won 30-13 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2004: Australia won 23-19 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2004: New Zealand won 16-7 at Westpac Trust, Wellington
2003: Australia won 22-10 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2003: New Zealand won 21-17 at Eden Park, Auckland
2003: New Zealand won 50-21 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2002: Australia won 16-14 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2002: New Zealand won 12-6 at Jade Stadium, Christchurch
2001: Australia won 26-29 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2001: New Zealand won 23-15 at Carisbrook, Dunedin
2000: Australia won 23-24 at Westpac Trust, Wellington

In Sydney Australia leads 5-3 – five out of seven Australian wins.

Prediction: New Zealand by fewer than 10 points.

Teams:

Australia: 15 James O’Connor, 14 Lachie Turner, 13 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Luke Burgess, 8 Richard Brown, 7 George Smith (captain), 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 James Horwill, 3 Al Baxter, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 17 Benn Alexander, 18 Dean Mumm, 19 David Pocock, 20 Will Genia, 21 Ryan Cross, 22 Peter Hynes.

New Zealand: 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Joe Rokocoko, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Luke McAlister, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (captain), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Isaac Ross, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Aled de Malmanche, 17 John Afoa, 18 Jason Eaton, 19 Rodney So’oialo, 20 Brendon Leonard, 21 Stephen Donald, 22 Ma’a Nonu.

Date: Saturday, August 22
Kick-off: 20.00 (10.00 GMT)
Venue: ANZ Stadium, Sydney
Expected weather conditions: 20 percent chance of rain with a high of 25°C, dropping to 8°C and a northwester of 25 km/h, abating slightly
Referee: Jonathan Kaplan (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Craig Joubert (South Africa), Cobus Wessels (South Africa)